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Dustin Wolf, Calgary Flames (Photo by John Cordes/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Flames’ Dustin Wolf Extension Is Worth Every Penny

Originally posted on The Hockey Writers
By Justin Giampietro | Last updated Sep 9, 2025 3:25 PM ET

In the NHL, plenty of seemingly foolproof young goalie extensions go south. When a small sample size meets the most volatile position in the sport, going long-term can have serious consequences.

Dustin Wolf, coming off his rookie season, is the exception. The Calgary Flames locked the 24-year-old into a seven-year, $7.5 million cap-hit deal on Sept. 9—risky on the surface, but likely worth every penny. What’s the reason for optimism?

Wolf’s Rookie Season by the Numbers

Let’s look at the numbers. Wolf appeared in 53 games last season and accumulated the following totals: a 29–16–8 record, .910 save percentage (SV%), and 2.64 goals-against average (GAA). Data from three major public analytical models—Evolving-Hockey, MoneyPuck, and Natural Stat Trick—have Wolf, on average, pegged at 16.93 goals saved above expected. This means, in theory, he was “expected” to post a .899 SV% and 2.96 GAA.

Strictly according to Evolving-Hockey, among the 19 goaltenders who faced 2,000 or more unblocked shot attempts last season, Wolf ranked fourth in save percentage. He was, by the numbers, one of the best true starting goalies in the NHL.

For his efforts, Wolf finished second in Calder Trophy voting, eighth in Vezina Trophy voting, and 15^th in Hart Trophy voting. Getting MVP recognition on a team that missed the playoffs, he had a very special rookie campaign.

Wolf’s Contract Is Already a Steal

Wolf’s extension won’t kick in until 2026–27, when the NHL’s salary cap is projected to receive an $8.5 million boost. With that and his incredible résumé in mind, this contract is already a steal.

At $7.5 million per season, Wolf is set to be the ninth-most expensive goalie in the NHL. Seeing as he’ll start the deal at 25 years old, Calgary is getting all of his prime and likely very few “gunk” years—the same can’t be said for each of the eight guys out-earning him.

Let’s look at four different worlds. The first is where Wolf, despite coming into the league with awards at every level, implodes earlier than expected, becoming borderline backup material by the 2030s. The second sees him become an above-average goalie, but never returning to his rookie-season production. In the third, he sustains his 2024–25 totals throughout most of his contract but doesn’t find another gear. In the fourth, he takes that next step into true superstardom.

You can be the judge of what’s the most realistic. But he’d be objectively worth the $7.5 million in worlds two, three, and four. By the midpoint of the contract, that’ll likely be average starter money, give or take (today, the 16^th-highest cap hit for an active goalie is Elvis Merzlikins’ $5.4 million). If Wolf takes one step back, he’s still an above-average starter. If he takes one step forward, he’s almost destined to win a Vezina Trophy.

Why Wolf Will Be One of the NHL’s Best Players

Getting to Wolf’s game specifically, the eye test shows a player who’s destined to be one of the best in the NHL. On my Top 50 Players in 5 Years list, he ranked 16^th. So, why the optimism?

The Flames had one of the worst offences in the NHL last season. Fourth-last in NHL goals scored, the team required near-perfect goaltending to win as much as they did. With Wolf, that’s what they got. He’s reminiscent of Andrei Vasilevskiy in some ways: incredibly athletic yet calm and poised when the game is on his shoulders.

As a rookie no less, Wolf gave the Flames an MVP-caliber season. Already having the impact of an in-his-prime franchise goalie, further development could mean Calgary dominance between the pipes for the next eight seasons. His deal is worth every penny.