Flames free agency target: Nikolaj Ehlers

Pros for the Flames

Bringing in Ehlers would provide an instant scoring punch to the Flames’ roster. Ehlers is an eight-time 20+ goal scorer, and would directly address the Flames’ scoring woes.

He would also be given top-line minutes right away. If Ehlers wants a bigger role, Calgary could certainly provide that situation. He would easily become one of the team’s best wingers. Who knows? If Ehlers is given a larger role, his stats could explode. He could very well turn into one of those players who find a new stride on a new team, further unlocking a new level in his game.

There’s also the cap situation. The Flames could easily accommodate an Ehlers deal as they will have lots of cap space to play with on July 1st. While they still need to sign a handful of RFAs, they still would have the space to make an addition or two.

Cons for the Flames

While there are some pros, there are many cons with an Ehlers addition.

Starting with injury history. Ehlers has gained a reputation for being quite injury-prone, as he’s only played a full 82 games three times in his career. Signing a player to a major contract when their health is in question isn’t exactly a smart way to look at things. Not to mention adding another big contract when you already have Nazem Kadri, Jonathan Huberdeau, and MacKenzie Weegar isn’t ideal.

Secondly, there’s the team’s timeline. The Flames are honestly in no position to add big-name free agents right now. While they almost made the playoffs, that was largely due to goaltending. Adding a player like Ehlers to the mix could help with short-term success, but the Flames need to really focus on the future.

Expanding on that topic of his age, Ehlers is 29. The team should be honestly trading more veterans instead of adding them. The Flames also have a logjam in wingers, so adding one would mean that they would likely have to subtract as well.

There’s also the risk of Ehlers straight up not playing up to his deal. The Flames don’t have nearly as much talent as the Jets do, meaning Ehlers would be more relied upon for offence in Calgary. Is Ehlers the type of player to be the face of a team? No, not at all.

What will Ehlers’ next contract look like?

Based on various rumors and reports, I believe Ehlers will get a deal around 5-6 years with an AAV around $7.5-8 million.

There’s no doubt that teams will be willing to pay for the Danish forward. His skillset is appealing for any team that’s looking for a boost in offence for their top-six. He won’t be cheap, so it may be a high-risk, high-reward move for whichever team signs him. The injury history is the main concern, but when healthy, Ehlers is a productive NHLer worthy of a major raise.

Final thoughts

While an Ehlers signing could be intriguing for the Flames, it’s likely not a path they pursue. His age simply doesn’t fit where the team is currently at, and injuries are a concern.

It also doesn’t make sense for the Flames to throw big money at another veteran at this stage. Instead, they should be actively selling and accumulating more assets and young players for the future. This team isn’t a forward away from contending once again. I also don’t see Ehlers signing in another Canadian market, just because I believe he can cash out and have more options south of the border.