Florida Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Lightning: 2024 Stanley Cup playoff series preview and pick

Florida Panthers: 1^st in Atlantic Division, 110 points
Tampa Bay Lightning: 1^st Eastern Conference Wild Card, 96 points*

* – with one game remaining

Schedule (ET)

To be announced

The Skinny

For the first 26 seasons that the Panthers and Lightning have coexisted as NHL franchises, we were deprived of the Battle of Florida, largely in part due to Florida’s ineptitude for most of the 2000s and 2010s. But for the third time in the last four seasons, these two state rivals will face off in the playoffs. The previous two have gone Tampa’s way, but for the first time Florida enters the series appearing to have the upper hand.

Both teams began 2023-24 with similar narratives, as key injuries going into the season had many wondering if either team would be in tough to make the playoffs. The Panthers were without Aaron Ekblad and Brandon Montour on blueline for the first couple months, and their makeshift defense looked like it would struggle enough at the start of the year to see them fall behind in the playoff race. Meanwhile, while the Lightning weren’t strangers to losing stars to long-term injuries, two months without goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy after already losing pieces as cap casualties had many wondering if they might see a repeat of 2016-17’s playoff miss.

Instead, the Panthers were 10-5-1 and second in the Atlantic Division when Ekblad and Montour returned to the lineup on Nov. 17, and the Lightning were 9-6-5 and in third when Vasilevskiy returned a week later. The Panthers’ campaign saw significantly smoother sailing to the postseason, while the Lightning required an MVP-caliber performance from Nikita Kucherov to make it comfy for them, but deep down everybody knew both teams would make it after the survived the early storms.

So while Tampa has had the upper hand in their previous two postseason meetings (2021, 2022), this isn’t the same Lightning team, and this isn’t the same Panthers team. Will the Bolts’ Cup-winning pedigree and previous success against Florida get them over the top again? Or will the Panthers carry over the momentum from last season’s playoff run and finally best Tampa in the playoffs?

Head-to-Head

Florida: 2-1-0
Tampa Bay: 1-2-0

We only got the battle of Florida three times this season due to the structuring of the schedule matrix, and they didn’t even get their first bout in until the end of December. That matchup saw the Panthers sneak out of Tampa with a 3-2 win, along with a 52.04% 5v5 score-adjusted expected goals share in the game. After that, it wasn’t until mid-February where the two teams met again in Tampa, with the Panthers laying down the hammer with a 9-2 win despite only having a 53.21% 5v5 SA xG share. But a month later, the Lightning got the last laugh in Sunrise with a 5-3 win, although it was super close with only a 50.13% 5v5 SA xG share favoring the Bolts.

Ultimately, the Panthers won a tight series in terms of the expected goal share, sitting at 51.85% over the three games, and based on the results in those games, each team really likes spoiling the other team’s party in their own barn. Maybe that will be a factor that gives Tampa Bay an advantage as the road team in this series, but it’s likely just the randomness of small sample sizes.

Top Five Scorers

Florida

Sam Reinhart, 94 points
Matthew Tkachuk, 88 points
Aleksander Barkov, 80 points
Carter Verhaeghe, 72 points
Vladimir Tarasenko, 55 points (14 with Panthers)

Tampa Bay*

Nikita Kucherov, 142 points
Brayden Point, 89 points
Steven Stamkos, 79 points
Victor Hedman, 76 points
Brandon Hagel, 73 points

* – with one game remaining

X-Factor

It’s a bit cliche to say that special teams will be the key to both teams’ fates in this series, but that is especially important for the Lightning. A big part of the success of their offense this season was their top-ranked power play, and that’s proven by the massive gap in points between their top five scorers and the rest of the team, with all five players being their go-to guys for the top unit. The Panthers lead the league in penalty minutes this season and were second in penalty kill opportunities this season at 3.55 times per game, so while they’re tied for sixth in penalty kill percentage this season, they need to be disciplined to be successful. If they get undisciplined in any game, it’s a slippery slope to letting the Bolts’ power play cook and run away with games. The Panthers have the upper hand at even strength, so the more they can keep the game there, the better their chances in this series are.

Offense

Do you think it’s a coincidence that the Panthers and the Vegas Golden Knights are tied for 11th in goals per game with 3.23? Probably, but I think it’s at least a solid indication that we need to pay more attention to what’s under the hood for both teams fresh off deep playoff runs. Between that and their 22nd-ranked 5v5 goals for per 60 of 2.46, it doesn’t exactly look ideal, but in terms of play-driving, the Panthers are looking much better in ninth with 2.77 5v5 expected goals per 60. They also have the eighth-best power play at 23.5%, so they at least have a way to make up for it. It wasn’t like their more-middling offense was due to their stars underperforming either, because Barkov and Verhaeghe have been par for the course this season, Tarasenko has been quite productive since joining them at the deadline, and while Tkachuk had a bit of a down year, I think Sam Reinhart scoring 57 goals has more than made up for that.

Beyond that, they aren’t exactly loaded offensively, but they do have some decent depth options. Sam Bennett continued his revived career in Florida by hitting the 40-point mark for the third straight season. Evan Rodrigues has been a solid new addition to the team (I wonder who saw that coming) and nearly hit 40 points. Anton Lundell’s development has staggered a bit, but he still brings some production to their third line. Even Eetu Luostarinen and Kevin Stenlund chipped in with double-digit goals this year. Their blueline took a bit of a step back with their production, especially Montour (41-point pace) and Ekblad (28-point pace). But Oliver Ekman-Larsson had a great bounce back year with 32 points, while Gustav Forsling has really established himself as the Panthers best defenseman at both ends of the ice and once again hovered around the 40-point mark this season.

The Lightning seem to have an almost parallel attack to the Panthers, as they find themselves with an offense that’s one of the worst at generating chances, but one of the best at actually finishing them. They have the fifth-best offense in the league at 3.48 goals per game, and a lot of that is thanks to the best power play in the league clicking at 28.7%, as their even strength numbers take a bit of a dip. Their 2.53 5v5 goals for per 60 minutes is tied for 17th in the league, while their 2.46 5v5 expected goals for per 60 is all the way in 26th, the worst of any playoff team. This is not the same overwhelming offense that won Stanley Cups, but their power play is still lethal.

That’s why the only players on the team having strong offensive seasons are the players who operate their top power play unit. Kucherov gets the most attention being close to 45 goals and 100 assists and having a career year with an already impressive resume. He’s a Hart candidate for a reason. The production drops off more than 50 points before you reach Brayden Point’s almost-90-point campaign, and then Steven Stamkos, Victor Hedman, and Brandon Hagel all have 70+ points. Beyond that, it gets a bit drier, as Anthony Cirelli, Nick Paul and Anthony Duclair are all in the 40-point range, Darren Raddysh is past 30 points, and no one else has touched 25-points. On top of that, Michael Eyssimont and Luke Glendening are the only players to not hit 40 points to have 10+ goals. Again, this isn’t your older sibling’s Lightning team. This is a team hanging on to two lines and a top pair. Duclair has fit like a glove in their top six, and Mikhail Sergachev will really help their blueline offensively, but the depth just isn’t what it used to be.

Defense

When the Panthers won the Presidents’ Trophy two seasons ago, it was because of a strong offense and a mediocre defense. In two seasons, those roles have reversed, as their offense doesn’t jump off the page, but their defense is one of the best in the league. Unless the Winnipeg Jets allow two or fewer goals in their final game, the Panthers will finish the season first in goals against per 60 at 2.41. They also rank second in 5v5 goals against per 60 with 1.88 and are even tied for 6th in penalty kill percentage with 82.5%. And that all lines up under the hood as well, as even though they did overperform their 5v5 expected goals per 60 of 2.37, they still ranked top five in that regard.

Of course, you can’t talk about their defensive play without talking about Barkov. He’s a consistent Selke Trophy candidate, likely to win it this season, and even finished third among all forwards in the league in defensive goals above replacement with 7. Beyond that, Reinhart has also developed into a strong defensive forward, and Luostarinen and Rodrigues were also excellent defensively for the Panthers this season. Verhaeghe, Tkachuk and Nick Cousins were the only three players on the team to fall under a -1 defensive GAR, so there is some concern there, but everyone else at least grades out to be passable defensively. On their blueline, Ekman-Larsson’s -0.9 defensive GAR stands to be the only liability in that regard, while Forsling, Montour, Ekblad, Niko Mikkola, Josh Mahura and Dmitry Kulikov each had a defensive GAR above 1. It seems that no matter who they throw out on their blueline, they know they’ll be in good hands.

The Lightning used to be one of the best teams at both ends of the ice, but much like how their offense has taken a dip under the hood, their defense has also struggled, and it’s a bit more obvious. They finished 14th in 5v5 expected goals against per 60 with 2.58, and they actually underperformed that in terms of their on-ice results. Their 3.25 goals against per game was 22nd in the league and their 2.87 5v5 goals against per 60 was tied with the Red Wings for the fifth-worst in the league. At least their penalty kill stopped some of the bleeding with the 5th-best penalty kill percentage at 83.1%.

I talked about how their top-five scorers carried the load for Tampa offensively, but outside of Hagel, I can’t say the same for them defensively. Kucherov, Point, Stamkos, and Hedman made up four of the bottom-five players on the Lightning in defensive GAR, with Hedman’s -6.9 total tying him with Kevin Korchinski for the 13th worst in the league. That’s a veteran defenseman, supposedly one of the best two-way defenders in the world, playing at the same level as a rookie for a lottery-contender. Yikes. That’s a trend that’s carried over from last season, as the Swede has struggled to handle tougher minutes with Ryan McDonagh no longer on the team. The Bolts certainly have some solid defensive players like Hagel, Paul, Darren Raddysh, Tyler Motte, and Calvin De Haan, but when even your shutdown center in Antony Cirelli can only finish the year with a 0.7 defensive GAR, that’s not a great outlook for this team.

Goaltending

Five years ago, before any of these Battle of Florida playoff series’ happened, Sergei Bobrovsky and Andrei Vasilevskiy met in the first round of the 2019 playoffs when Bobrovsky was on the Blue Jackets. At the time, they were two of the best goalies in the league, and it feels like since that point, neither of these goalies has been good at the same time. It was Vasilevskiy’s struggles in that series and Bobrovsky’s excellence that helped the Blue Jackets make their improbable sweep that season. After that, Bobrovsky’s reputation took a big hit when he joined the Panthers and struggled, while Vasilevskiy became the “goalie who knew who to win” after three straight Cup Final runs, including a 2020-21 Conn Smythe Trophy. But interestingly enough, after another successful regular season in 2022-23, he took a step back in the playoffs, which was right when ‘Bob’ turned his play around.

This season didn’t see Bobrovsky play lights out like that 2023 run, but he played solid enough behind a strong Panthers defense to come out looking well. But even then, his .915% save percentage tied Linus Ullmark and Cam Talbot for the fifth-best among goalies with 40 games, and his 15.76 5v5 goals saved above expected was 14th. On the other side of this matchup, Vasilevskiy has yet to find his form after returning from back surgery. His .900% save percentage was tied with Lukas Dostal for the ninth-worst among goalies with 40 games this season, and you can’t just blame it on the Lightning’s defensive play in front of him, as his -1.24 GSAx was the fifth worst.

In terms of their backups, it’s a similar story but with even more extremes. Anthony Stolarz started the season as depth insurance for Spencer Knight but ended up going above and beyond in the backup role. Amongst goalies with at least 20 starts, he was behind only Laurent Brossoit in save percentage with .925%, and he was seventh in 5v5 GSAx with 21.7.

Jonas Johansson was part of the reason why many expected the Lightning to struggle to make the playoffs, considering that he’d be the starting goalie in Vasilevskiy’s absence. While he kept the boat afloat for that time, it wasn’t the best goaltending they could have gotten, and it only got worse as the season went on. By the end of the year, his .890% save percentage was the seventh-worst among goalies with 20 starts, and he had the ninth-worst 5v5 GSAx with -7.23.

Injuries

As of right now, there doesn’t seem to be any major injuries to report for the Panthers. Both Ekblad and Ekman-Larsson missed Tuesday’s season finale against the Toronto Maple Leafs, but they seem to be short-term issues. Ekblad will be returning to the lineup for Game 1, while Ekman-Larsson isn’t confirmed for that game but most likely won’t be out long term.

Defenseman Mikhail Sergachev is the most notable injury for the Lightning, as he’s missed more than two months with a leg injury that occurred in his first game back from a lower-body injury that kept him out for the month and a half prior. Beyond that, it’s mostly a lot of day-to-day type injuries heading into this first round matchup, with the statuses of Haydn Fleury, Jonas Johansson and Tyler Motte still up in the air. That said, at this point of the season, day-to-day usually translates to “if it’s a playoff game, I’ll play.”

Intangibles

The Panthers both are and aren’t experienced going into this series. Coming off last season’s Stanley Cup Final run, they certainly know how to win in the playoffs, especially since they still have 14 players from that team. But at the same time, they have just one player on their team with a Stanley Cup in Vladimir Tarasenko. That said, they certainly play like a team that knows how to grind you down in a playoff series. They have the most penalty minutes in the league this season for a reason, and that’s because they know how to get under your skin. It worked against the Eastern Conference last season, and it likely will this year.

Unfortunately for the Panthers, they’re up against the only team in the East with more experience than them. While last season wasn’t quite the success that the Lightning are used to, this is still a team that made three consecutive trips to the Stanley Cup Final prior to last season, and even when their team has been stripped of a lot of those players due to cap reasons, the core is still intact. Seven players still remain from their two Cup-winning rosters, and Brandon Hagel and Nick Paul were also on the team when they went to the Stanley Cup Final in 2022. They even added Anthony Duclair, who got his experience from the team he’ll playing against. In the past, the concerns with the Lightning’s experienced core was the fatigue from three straight runs to the Cup Final, and that is no longer an issue after their first round exit at the hands of the Toronto Maple Leafs last season gave them almost four months off. And beyond their experienced core, they have their fair share of players that can wear you down in Hagel, Paul, Motte, Tanner Jeannot, and guys like Erik Cernak on the back end.

Series prediction

On the surface, this seems like a tough reward for the Panthers to get for winning the Atlantic Division. Congrats, you get to face the closest thing to a dynasty in the past decade. But while Kucherov and Co. will come in guns blazing, the Panthers are one of the few teams in the East well-equipped to shut them down, and if they can stay out of the penalty box, they will make it much easier for themselves. This isn’t the same Panthers and Lightning machup from those previous playoff series’. If anything, I think this Panthers team is capable of even beating those 2021 and 2022 Lightning squads, never mind the shell of them that Florida is facing now. Make no mistake, the Bolts will give the Cats trouble, especially if Vasilevskiy rediscovers his game and Kucherov continues his MVP play, but this Panthers team is deeper at all three positions and, for my money, is one of the best teams in the league.

Panthers in six games.