Flyers’ Sean Couturier Is the Solution, Not the Problem

With Couturier on the ice, the Flyers are a genuinely good hockey team. Only 10 clubs have a better CF% as a collective, six with a better SF%, zero with a better HDCF%, and two with a better xGF%. The Orange and Black vastly outplay the opposition when their captain comes off the bench. When he’s resting, though, it’s a different story. Their numbers compared to the rest of the league are below:

In every single one of those metrics, the Flyers are a bottom-six team in the NHL. They are terribly outshot and outscored. Couturier might not look much better in terms of actual goal share (he’s a minus-4 at even strength), but his .854 on-ice save percentage will correct itself over time—it’s a factor out of his control. Even still, with some of the worst goaltending out there, he’s above the team average.

It’s fair to look at points and say Couturier’s four goals and six assists in 20 games aren’t enough, but all of his scoring has come at even strength. On a team that has potted over one-fifth of its goals on the man advantage, he’s playing second-fiddle to the top unit. Besides, he’s tied for fourth in points on the roster.

Right Now, Couturier Is Earning His Contract

Most see a 31-year-old player making $7.75 million against the cap and expect him to score more than 10 points in 20 games. That’s understandable. But Couturier is the only center who is consistently giving the players around him a chance to shine. That’s been apparent through the eye test, but the stats (his possession metrics specifically) back this claim up, too.

The Flyers’ current centers are the following: Couturier, Morgan Frost , Noah Cates, and Ryan Poehling. Their shares of ice time in all three zones are the following at even strength ( via NHL Edge):

As we can see, Couturier takes the cake in terms of possession. He spends a great deal of time in the offensive and neutral zones, making it so little time is left over for him to be caved in on defense. This allows the Flyers to create more scoring chances and, more importantly, get players like rookie Matvei Michkov productive, confident, and happy. If he’s spending that much time in the offensive zone, more goals will come—it’s all you can really ask for in this rebuilding season. But then, we see a drop-off.

Frost is about league average, while Cates and Poehling are spending a disproportionate amount of their time on defense. This wastes shifts, again, putting someone like Michkov in a position where his offensive creativity isn’t being put to good use. If it feels like the youngster is spending way too much time in the defensive zone, that’s because he is—Michkov isn’t playing on Couturier’s line anymore.

Over the past five games, Michkov has played 86.42 percent of his even-strength ice time without Couturier. In nearly an hour of usage in those situations (59:18), he has a dreadful 27.14 xGF%. In that sliver of time he has been with the captain (9:10), Michkov’s xGF% is a much more promising 60.16.

This gets to the point of Couturier’s contract. He’s making $7.75 million against the cap, which is a lot, but the other three centers are making a combined $6.625 million to get pummeled when they’re on the ice. When you look at it that way, Couturier’s cap hit is more than acceptable. Right now, it’s far closer to a bargain for the Orange and Black than being an overpay.

Being the captain of a hockey team that hasn’t seen championship success in decades isn’t easy. Expectations are heightened, and watchful eyes track your every move. Couturier hasn’t backed down from the pressure, though. While a top draft selection might benefit the Flyers, putting their Calder Trophy candidate in a position to succeed should be their focus. The veteran and young Michkov haven’t played together a lot recently, but the captain’s presence should be a welcomed one.