Four-time All-Star winger expected to waive no-trade clause

The Senators are expected to move winger Vladimir Tarasenko after confirming the Russian veteran will waive his no-trade clause for a Stanley Cup contender, reports David Pagnotta of The Fourth Period. 

Reporting from Postmedia’s Bruce Garrioch multiple times this month indicated that the 32-year-old may have preferred to stick with the Sens for the rest of the season, but he’s now likely to be on the move before the March 8 trade deadline.

Tarasenko’s willingness to accept a move aligns with what most anticipated at the beginning of the season: if the Senators were out of playoff contention close to the deadline, they’d flip the 2019 Stanley Cup champion after signing him to a one-year, $5M pact in free agency. The six-time 30-goal scorer surprisingly struggled to secure a commitment when the floodgates opened on July 1, leading to him changing agents less than a week into the new league year.

He settled on Ottawa and their offer of complete trade protection, allowing him to dictate his destiny if they decided to move him at the deadline. While his days of routinely potting 30 in a season are behind him after multiple significant shoulder injuries in 2019 and 2020 with the Blues, he’s been a solid complementary top-six piece in Ottawa with 15 goals, 23 assists, 38 points, and a +12 rating while averaging 15:59 per game across 55 appearances.

Don’t let the +12 rating on a bottom-feeder team fool you — he hasn’t suddenly turned into a high-end shutdown winger. His expected rating is -0.4, middle of the pack on the team, as is his 49.2 CF% at even strength. Nothing about his numbers indicates he’s become a genuine liability, either, posting a solid 51.4% expected goals share with Drake Batherson and Tim Stützle this year, per MoneyPuck.

Any team acquiring Tarasenko is getting a similar talent to what the Rangers picked up from the Blues at last year’s deadline. He’s a solid middle-six scoring winger with Cup-winning experience, and if the Sens opt to retain half of his $5M cap hit down the stretch and make him a $2.5M player for whoever acquires him, they should be able to get a second-round pick at the very least.