Free agent focus for the Toronto Maple Leafs

Drafted 22nd overall in the 2015 draft, Samsonov was once believed to be the Capitals’ goalie of the future but his inconsistency and inability to seize the void left in Washington’s crease by Braden Holtby’s departure led to him being available for Toronto to snag as an unrestricted free agent.

The team signed him to a one-year $1.8M deal and he ended up rewarding the team’s faith considerably. He led Toronto netminders with 42 games played and posted a strong .919 save percentage and 2.33 goals-against-average.

While his playoff performances as a Washington Capital were cause for significant concern, Samsonov’s play in the Maple Leafs’ first-round playoff series against the Tampa Bay Lightning helped Toronto get the playoff series win they’d been long searching for. While he didn’t quite play up to par against the Florida Panthers (like the rest of his team, to be fair) and had his series end early due to injury, his 2022-23 season could be seen as serving as a major turning point for his career and a moment where he has resurrected his reputation as an up-and-coming netminder.

He’s earned himself a solid pay raise from his $1.8M deal, but since he has a relatively inconsistent track record he might not be the safest long-term investment.

As for his future in Toronto, there are some questions to answer. The general manager that signed him, Kyle Dubas, is no longer with the organization and the new general manager, Brad Treliving, is coming from a team that has an established veteran netminder in Jacob Markstrom. Might Toronto prefer to add a proven veteran in their crease? And if so, is there going to be enough cap space to re-sign Samsonov to the type of contract his play has merited?

F Nick Abruzzese – With such a sizeable portion of the Maple Leafs' salary cap space set aside to pay for the team’s core of star players, Toronto will need cheap, energetic, competent players to fill spots lower in their lineup. Abruzzese, 24, fits that profile after a strong first season as a full-time pro.

He scored 16 goals and 48 points in 69 AHL games for the Toronto Marlies and pitched in two assists in his two games of NHL action. With no proven NHL track record to speak of he won’t receive a significant raise from the $850k he earned last season, and as a result, could be in prime position to seize a depth role in Toronto.

Other RFAs: F Semyon Der-Arguchintsev, F Pontus Holmberg, D Victor Mete, D Mac Hollowell, D Filip Kral

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

F Ryan O’Reilly – The centerpiece acquisition of former GM Kyle Dubas’ flurry of trade deadline moves, O’Reilly looks poised to depart Toronto having improved his leaguewide standing to a considerable degree. In the final stretch of his tenure as a St. Louis Blue, the 2018-19 Selke and Conn Smythe Trophy winner’s significantly declined offensive production was the primary story surrounding his play.

By the time of the trade, he had managed only 19 points in 40 games, a 39-point 82-game pace.

That’s a steep decline from the 58 points in 78 games he posted last year, and there was concern that at 32 years old O’Reilly was exiting his prime and was beginning a career-altering decline in form. Then O’Reilly landed in Toronto and he turned that narrative around, managing 11 points in 13 regular-season games and nine points in 11 playoff games.

His heroics at important moments, including a crucial game-tying goal in Game Three against Tampa Bay and two assists in the team’s stunning Game Four comeback showed everyone that O’Reilly still has gas left in the tank.

But as a result, he likely priced himself out of Toronto with his playoff heroics. He’ll be among the top centers available in what is a relatively thin free-agent class down the middle and should receive contract offers that exceed what the Maple Leafs are in a position to offer him.

F Michael Bunting – While O’Reilly’s playoff performance changed the narrative around him for the better, the playoffs were not as kind to Bunting, 27. Bunting only managed to find the scoresheet twice in the playoffs despite scoring 23 goals and 49 points in the regular season.

His suspension due to a vicious hit to the head he laid on Lightning defenseman Erik Cernak earned Bunting some scathing criticism, and it left many wondering if he’d played his way out of Toronto, rather than priced his way out as someone such as Zach Hyman had.

Bunting remains a valuable winger who scored 63 points as a 26-year-old NHL rookie, but those questions that sprung up during the playoffs will linger as he considers offers on the open market. Is it possible that Toronto decides they can’t afford to let him walk?

Absolutely, but it feels like the team is headed in a different direction, especially with Matthew Knies penciled into his spot in the team’s top-six at what is likely to be a significantly cheaper price than the cap hit Bunting has earned.

F Alexander Kerfoot – While Kerfoot’s status as a focal point of Toronto’s return from trading Nazem Kadri to the Colorado Avalanche might leave a sour taste in the mouths of the Maple Leafs faithful, it isn’t exactly fair to judge Kerfoot against Kadri and the things he achieved in Colorado.

Kerfoot never had the breakout season in Toronto like the one Kadri had in Colorado, but Kerfoot nonetheless had his moments as a Maple Leaf. He scored 51 points in 2021-22 and was the second-highest-scoring Maple Leaf during the team’s infamous 2021 playoff series against the Montreal Canadiens, putting together a six-point performance that exceeded the production of stars such as Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and Morgan Reilly.

He’s a quality third-line forward with the versatility to either play center or along the wings, and he has also been a consistent presence on one of Toronto’s penalty-killing units. There are far worse players to staff a middle-six with than Kerfoot, but after he only managed two points in eleven playoff games it’s possible Toronto will look in a different direction for that area of their lineup.

F David Kampf – Kampf took a step forward after joining Toronto from the Chicago Blackhawks and has proven himself to be a solid defense-first fourth-line center. He was Toronto’s most heavily-used penalty-killing forward over the past two seasons and in that span of time, Toronto’s penalty kill ranks sixth in the NHL with a kill rate of 82%.

Toronto would surely like to have him back but like many of the other players on expiring deals, he may have earned a pay raise that bumps him to an area of pay Toronto won’t be able to match. He’ll be among the top fourth-line centers available on the market in any case and should earn a bump from the $1.5M he earned this past season.

D Luke Schenn – Schenn has found himself in a different spot than where he was during his first tour of duty with the Maple Leafs. No longer is he a former top prospect whose NHL play has disappointed relative to the expectations placed upon him by the media, now he’s a widely-respected veteran defenseman who can offer gritty, hard-nosed play and two Stanley Cup rings worth of playoff experience.

Schenn earned $850k this past season but will in all likelihood earn at the very least more than $1M AAV on his next contract, and possibly far more than that. He’s a quality option for a team looking to add a proven veteran defensive defenseman to their mix but perhaps not what Toronto needs with T.J. Brodie, Timothy Liljegren, and Conor Timmins already in pace along the right-hand side of their defense.

D Justin Holl – Holl’s playoff performances made him a bit of a lightning rod for the Maple Leafs fanbase, but as someone who worked his way up from the ECHL, he’s carved out a solid career for himself. He’s been a regular on head coach Sheldon Keefe’s blueline since Keefe first took over the job in 2019-20 and has averaged over 20 minutes of ice time per night for the past three seasons, including as one of the team’s leading penalty killers.

As a right-shot blueliner, Holl may not have a spot in Toronto given the presence of Timmins, Brodie, and Liljegren, but he’ll find his place on the open market and be a solid option for a team looking to beef up its blueline.

Other UFAs: F Noel Acciari, F Zach Aston-Reese, F Wayne Simmonds, F Radim Zohorna, D Erik Gustafsson, D Jordie Benn, G Erik Kallgren

Projected Cap Space

The presence of Toronto’s highly-paid core of stars makes their cap situation quite complicated, especially as key contract extensions for Matthews, Marner, and William Nylander, among others, will need to be negotiated. As a result, Toronto may not be in a position to make any major, long-term commitments before those deals are finalized. This is likely to impact the players they’ll be able to target on the open market.

CapFriendly projects them to have a little over $9M in salary cap space, though that number would increase considerably should they manage to find a way to remove Matt Murray and his $4.687M cap hit from their books. That should be enough to add a few role players, though if they want to make a more sizeable change to their team composition some creativity is likely to be required.