Habs Receiving Love In Late Season Award Races

Starting with the Hart Trophy for the league’s MVP to their team, the stat cards shockingly have defenseman Lane Hutson in 4th among everyone around the NHL for this award. A huge reason for that may be due to stat cards that were created by analytic gurus like JFresh, for example, having Hutson way above his teammates in terms of game performance when combining both offensive and defensive ratings.

It’s great to see the Habs’ star defenseman getting love from all these stat models, but the reality is that this won’t be considered when the hockey writers who vote on the Hart Trophy fill in their ballots at the end of the season, which will surely not give Hutson many, if any, votes at all given that forwards and goaltenders usually get more action in the real voting. In fact, teammate and Habs captain Nick Suzuki will likely get more votes for the Hart Trophy in the end. Nonetheless, it is still a very great honour to see that the analytics show that he is the most valuable player to his team.

Despite being the highest defenseman in Luszczyszyn’s Hart Trophy race, Hutson actually only comes in second for the Norris Trophy behind Colorado Avalanche defenseman Cale Makar. One of the reasons for that is technically Makar would be higher than Hutson for the Hart Trophy, but since Luszczyszyn emphasizes that it should go to the most valuable player to his team, he only used a single player from any given team in his top 10 Hart Race list.

The fact that Hutson is second behind Makar is still incredibly impressive, as he has shown that his defensive game is actually very underrated, as it equally takes into account both ends of the ice. In this case, Hutson could have done enough to truly be a top 3 finalist for this trophy, but Columbus Blue Jackets defenseman Zach Werenski will likely end up with more votes. Overall, this year’s Norris Trophy race will be crazy, as there are about 10 guys who have a case to win the award this season. Ultimately, it will likely come down to the defenseman who has the most points while still being at least decent defensively. Hence, Werenski is likely to be the actual favourite to win.

Next up, we have the trophy, where a Canadiens player is both the favourite to win with these models as well as in the actual ballot voting. Captain Nick Suzuki is currently and has been for the majority of the season the favourite to win the Selke Trophy as the league’s best defensive forward (more like best 2-way forward in today’s NHL). This award is often given out based on the reputation of a player. This is why players often win multiple years in a row. However, with Florida Panthers forward Aleksander Barkov out for the season due to an ACL/MCL tear, it has allowed Suzuki to be the favourite to get the award.

The main reason Suzuki gets the nod over everyone else is that he plays some of the toughest minutes of anyone in the league among the defensive forwards listed as well as being a positive when on the ice for the Habs. Luszczyszyn also admits that Suzuki doesn’t really have much competition, as the other known solid defensive forwards are all having down years, and that Suzuki has pretty much earned the award. Another thing that will definitely help Suzuki for the award is the fact that he’s currently 8th in the league in points.

While many would think that Ivan Demidov would be 2nd behind Matthew Schaefer for the Calder Trophy, the stat cards actually have him behind his former SKA St. Petersburg teammate Alex Nikishin as well and in the 3rd spot. You could argue Anaheim Ducks forward Beckett Sennecke ahead of Demidov; however, the reality is that Nikishin will not finish above either of them. Nonetheless, the Calder Trophy will be Schaefer’s award when it’s all set and done anyway, so finishing 2nd or 3rd won’t end up mattering.

Finally, last but certainly not least is the Rocket Richard Trophy, as Caufield is just two goals back of Nathan MacKinnon as the league’s leading goal scorer. This is an obvious one given what has happened this weekend. In reality, the race seems closer than Luszczyszyn seems to say in his article. The model he is using says Caufield will end with 49 goals and MacKinnon with 53, but recent games in 2026 say different. With that being said, it is interesting to see how the model calculates expected goals for these players, given that MacKinnon is not scoring lately.

Overall, it is very nice to see guys like Hutson and Suzuki getting recognition around the analytics community for how great they have been this season. This is especially the case regarding Suzuki, who seems like the clear choice, both from stat cards and the eye test, for the Selke as the best 2-way forward in hockey this season.

What are your thoughts from Luszczyszyn’s article on the award race? Do any of the results so far shock you?