Habs Turning Point: Decisions That Shape Destiny

In a recent analysis, we highlighted Kent Hughes’ unique position as the Canadiens’ GM, particularly when negotiating contracts for pending unrestricted free agents (UFAs) and other players. As a former players’ agent, Hughes has the ability to anticipate how negotiations might unfold before even stepping into a room. While this gives him a significant advantage, it doesn’t make the decisions ahead any easier.

In previous years, Hughes’ path was largely dictated by the standings, with the Canadiens effectively out of playoff contention by Christmas. The team’s position made it clear that being a seller at the trade deadline was the right choice. This year, however, the team is firmly “in the mix,” to borrow Hughes’ own words, making the upcoming decisions far more complex. Collaborating closely with Jeff Gorton, VP of Hockey Operations, Hughes will need to carefully weigh his options.

UFA Considerations

The Canadiens have several key UFAs whose futures must be determined, each presenting unique challenges:

• Jake Evans ($1.7M): The versatile center is having a career year and has expressed interest in returning to Montreal. However, his elevated play may have priced him out of the Canadiens’ plans. If Evans is moved at the trade deadline, it will likely bring a solid return, but the loss of his defensive reliability and depth at center would leave a noticeable gap.
• David Savard ($3.5M): The veteran defenseman, known for his leadership and penalty-killing prowess, has also voiced his desire to stay in Montreal. At 34, Savard may be willing to take a pay cut to remain with the team, which could make him an appealing option to retain as a stabilizing presence on a young blue line.
• Joel Armia ($3.4M): Armia’s contract presents a different kind of challenge. Despite flashes of brilliance, including a knack for playoff heroics, his inconsistent play and high cap hit have made him a polarizing figure among fans. Finding a trade partner for Armia is a possibility, but Hughes might also consider keeping him since he has rediscovered his form after a wake-up call in Laval last season.
• Christian Dvorak ($4.45M): Dvorak’s fate is closely tied to Evans’ future. If Evans is dealt, it becomes unlikely that the Canadiens would move Dvorak, given the importance of center depth. However, if Dvorak is traded, Hughes may need to use the team’s final salary retention slot, as his current cap hit outweighs his production. Owen Beck and Lucas Condotta could be potential call-ups to fill the gap, but they may not match Dvorak’s experience.
• Michael Pezzetta ($812,500): Considering the coach’s utilization, he will likely remains as the team’s 13th forward but will not be re-signed.

Key RFAs

Beyond UFAs, Hughes must navigate decisions on restricted free agents (RFAs) like Jakub Dobeš, Cayden Primeau, and Rafaël Harvey-Pinard. While Primeau has recently lost his spot to Dobeš, all three have NHL experience. Primeau and RHP are doing well in Laval since being sent down.

Extension Candidates

Players entering the final year of their contracts next season also warrant attention, with high-profile names like:

• Patrik Laine ($8.7M, UFA): While fans and the organization admire Laine’s contributions, his long-term future in Montreal remains uncertain. His reserved demeanour adds an air of unpredictability to negotiations.
• Mike Matheson ($4.875M, UFA): Matheson has thrived in his hometown and expressed contentment with his role, making an extension possible. But the Canadiens are stacked on the left side of their defense and he would fetch a high return if traded.
• Kirby Dach ($3.363M, RFA with arbitration rights) and Arber Xhekaj ($1.3M, RFA): Both have shown improvement this season, but it’s likely the Canadiens will wait to see how they finish the year before committing to long-term deals.

Logan Mailloux (RFA – $875,000) and Joshua Roy (RFA – $835,000) are two important RFAs who also also have a year remaining and can be extended this summer.

Cap Implications

Even with a projected salary cap increase to $92–95M, the Canadiens face significant financial challenges. Juraj Slafkovsky ($7.6M) and Kaiden Guhle’s ($5.55M) contracts alone will rise by a combined $11.337M next season from what they’re making this year. Additionally, Carey Price’s $10.5M LTIR relief will no longer be available after 2025-26, taking away some of the team’s cap flexibility.

The Road Ahead

Hughes and Gorton must navigate a delicate balance between short-term competitiveness and long-term sustainability. With two salary retention slots already in use and only one remaining, every move will carry weight. For fans, the coming months promise to be both intriguing and pivotal as the Canadiens continue to reshape their future.