Has Auston Matthews Signed His Last Maple Leafs Contract?

When Auston Matthews signed his four-year, $53 million extension with the Toronto Maple Leafs in August 2023, some fans breathed a sigh of relief. The franchise cornerstone had committed to staying. But for how long—and with what intent?

If you’re reading the tea leaves, there’s an argument that this is Matthews’ final contract as a Maple Leafs player.

Matthews Has Signed Several Short-Term Deals

Unlike many other NHL superstars, Matthews has never signed a max-length deal with Toronto. His five-year extension in 2019 and his current four-year contract run counter to the 7- or 8-year commitments inked by the likes of Nathan MacKinnon, Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, David Pastrnak, and even William Nylander.

Matthews has always prioritized flexibility and maximum earnings—and that’s his right. But it also signals something: perhaps he’s not here for the long haul unless everything lines up in his favour.

Matthews Hasn’t Given the Maple Leafs a Hometown Discount

Matthews led the NHL in cap hit last season at $13.25 million. That’s more than MacKinnon, a Cup champion, and more than McDavid, a multi-time Hart and Art Ross winner. While Matthews’ total earnings trail those who’ve signed longer-term deals, he’s consistently positioned himself to maximize annual value.

Toronto has accommodated that, in part through massive July 1 signing bonuses. But changes to signing bonus limits and tax implications could now work against the Maple Leafs’ ability to make such offers in the future. That may be more than just a financial footnote—it could tip the scales when Matthews decides on his next deal.

The Maple Leafs Have a Diminishing Core and a Murky Future

Then there’s the team around him.

Mitch Marner—Matthews’ closest friend and long-time linemate—moved this offseason. He’s unlikely ever to return. By 2028, Morgan Rielly, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, and Chris Tanev will all be well into their 30s. John Tavares will be 37. And Toronto’s prospect pipeline is thin, with no elite reinforcements on the horizon.

What kind of team will this be when Matthews’ deal expires? Probably not a contender.

So, Why Would Matthews Stay in Toronto?

That’s the real question. If Matthews wants to win—and he’s said repeatedly that he does—then staying in Toronto beyond 2028 seems unlikely. He’ll be 30 years old, still in his prime, and positioned to command one more major payday. Will he spend it in the twilight years of an aging, capped-out roster?

It’s hard to imagine the answer will be Yes.