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Thursday’s Game 2 against the Vegas Golden Knights marks an important moment for the Edmonton Oilers.
They’ll look to snag a 2-0 series lead from the grasp of their second-round foe, something this core has only done once in their 13 playoff series since 2017.
What makes it intriguing is how they’ll be looking to do so.
For what genuinely feels like a first this season, head coach Kris Knoblauch is running the same lineup for the fifth straight game. Throughout the turmoil that this season has brought in the form of highs and lows for players and a fair share of injuries throughout the year — it never felt like this team had all that much time to play with common linemates that yielded results they were happy with.
That’s changed, as Knoblauch has continued to roll the same group of lines that helped secure wins in Games 4, 5, and 6 against the Los Angeles Kings and in Game 1 against Vegas. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it — right?
The sample size isn’t massive for these lines in the playoffs, but all four lines have outscored the opposition at five-on-five. The top line going 6-3, the second line 2-1, the third line 3-1 and the fourth line 2-0.
It’s not just that they’re controlling the goal share handily with the Oilers outscoring 11-7 at five-on-five, but they’re dominating play on the ice, too.
Looking at the per hour rates, all four lines have areas where they’re excelling in. The top line of Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid and Corey Perry is just outright walloping the opposition, seemingly matchup proof as they dominate in every category except for goals against. They’ve had poor on-ice goaltending, and two of the three goals against with them on the ice has come when Darnell Nurse and Evan Bouchard have been on the ice with them in 16:15.
The second line of Evander Kane, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Zach Hyman have emerged as an offensive threat, but one that’s playing extremely high-event hockey, allowing above average rates against for shot attempts and scoring chances. They’ve done solid work in limiting the high-danger chances against through, which is a good sign. They’re due for some offence and that could come as soon as tonight.
The third line of Trent Frederic, Adam Henrique and Connor Brown have also emerged in a big way, playing a very similar brand of hockey, but doing a better job of limiting opposing scoring chances. The fourth line, meanwhile, has been rock solid in their very limited 26 minutes, though they could clean up the quality looks their giving up.
Edmonton’s blue line has been somewhat of a mixed bag — Nurse and Bouchard are getting caved in terms of goal share — getting outscored 7-4 — scoring chances against and on-ice save percentage, but are dominating in nearly all other areas.
Their issue has been giving up goals against in bunches, with there being five of seven games so far when they’ve given up one or zero goals against.
Against Vegas:
0 GA in G1
Against Los Angeles:
2 GA in G6
0 GA in G5
3 GA in G4
o GA in G3
1 GA in G2
1 GA in G1
Jake Walman and John Klingberg have been a revelation, dominating across the board, while the third pairing of Brett Kulak and Ty Emberson have struggled in terms of controlling play, but are getting great goaltending and remain positive in goal share.
As it’s constructed, this is pretty close to the optimal lineup for the Edmonton Oilers, and what’s made this so impressive is that the team has four lines that are absolutely rolling right now. Loading up Draisaitl and McDavid with Perry on the top line helps spread some of the wealth down the lineup, and there’s no denying that Kane and Frederic joining this forward group has dramatically changed how this team plays.
Edmonton looks like a major threat in the Western Conference right now, and going up 2-0 over the Golden Knights would only add to the case.
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Five NHL players who may benefit from positive regression in 2025-26
Whether you like it or not, math and luck play a role in hockey. Sometimes players are scoring or stopping the puck at a higher rate than they usually do, and sometimes they’re doing it at a lower rate. Regardless, the bill always comes due, and those percentages swing the other way, unless the player is just that good. Every year, we see some players have down years compared to the rest of their career, and they usually bounce back the following season. So I thought it’d be a good idea to take a look at some players who underperformed their percentages in 2024-25 and will possibly see those results go the other way next year. This list will just be looking at regular-season performances, as the playoffs being such a small sample size for even the teams going on deep runs means that there are too many anomalies to choose from. It’s not a guarantee that every player on this list will get better, especially when percentages don’t play nearly as much of an impact on regression as it used to. But it’s still important to look at and be aware of them, especially if you’re a fan wanting to manage expectations, or a fantasy hockey player looking for potential steals in this season’s draft. Before we begin, here are a few honorable mentions: Thatcher Demko, Vancouver Canucks: 2024-25 was a season to forget for Demko. It took him a significant amount of time to recover from the injury that he sustained in the 2024 playoffs, and then on top of dealing with more injuries for the rest of the season, he saw his on-ice performance drop. After finishing as a Vezina finalist in 2023-24, he sported an .889 save percentage, a .021 drop from his career average. However, a lot of that was just regression from his 2023-24 season, and despite all of that, he still managed a 6.78 5v5 goals saved above expected, so the talent is still there. While he may not be a Vezina candidate this season, expect him to return to the level of a high-end NHL starter for the Vancouver Canucks. Anthony Duclair, New York Islanders: It wasn’t a great start to Duclair’s tenure with the New York Islanders last season. After signing the longest contract of his career, Duclair played just five games before a torn groin kept him out of the lineup for two months, and he was never quite able to recover his game for the rest of the season. He managed to get into just 44 games, and had just seven goals and an alarming low total of just four assists. However, with an on-ice shooting percentage of 6.87%, a lot of those low totals came from some extremely bad luck. He should see a shift in that this season, especially as the Islanders look to finally move on from their mediocre core under new management. William Karlsson, Vegas Golden Knights: I had identified Karlsson as a regression candidate last summer after scoring 30 goals and shooting 17.1% to get there, so it should be no surprise that he saw that performance swing the other way in 2024-25. While injuries held him to just 53 games, he still finished the season with only nine goals and 29 points, shooting 7.6%. Considering that his career SH% is 12.6%, his performance between the two seasons is about as clear cut of a regression as it gets, swinging 5% off the mark both ways. Expect that to finally normalize this season and get him back to the 15-20 goal scorer that he usually is. Considering that there were some trade rumors surrounding him this summer, it’s for the best that the Vegas Golden Knights opted to not trade him when his value was at its’ lowest. Joel Farabee, Calgary Flames 2024-25 Stats: 11 goals, 14 assists, 25 points What’s the outlier?: SH% was 4.3% lower and on-ice SH% was 2.05% lower than career average Farabee had easily the worst season of his career in 2024-25. His time with the Philadelphia Flyers wasn’t great, with just eight goals and 11 assists in 50 games, and after he was dealt to the Calgary Flames at the end of January, his production fell off even more, with just three goals and six points in 30 games after the trade. For a player that’s regularly in the 20-goal, 35-point range, it was quite the drop off. But most of that can be attributed to some bad luck on the ice, both in terms of his own shooting ability and his teammates’. With a 7.28% SH%, he shot 4.32% lower than his career rate of 11.6%, meaning that he would have had 17 or 18 goals if he shot at his career rate. And his teammates had similarly bad luck, with Farabee’s on-ice SH% of 7.44% being 2.05% lower than his career rate of 9.49%. Morgan Frost was the focal point of the trade to Calgary anyways, but if Farabee’s luck can return to normal, expect him to be a solid buy-low inclusion in that trade for the Flames. Alexandar Georgiev, Free Agent 2024-25 Stats: 15-26-4 record, .875 Sv%, -11.72 GSAx What’s the outlier?: Sv% was .028 lower than career average Georgiev has always been a bit overvalued in the market, as he’s made a career out of playing behind some strong New York Rangers and Colorado Avalanche teams, despite his numbers that were mediocre to, at best, fine. That said, he was generally good enough to not cost his team a win. But last season was a different story, as the Avalanche were barely hanging on to a playoff spot because of Georgiev’s performance, and as a result, they quickly pivoted to trading Georgiev to the San Jose Sharks to upgrade in net with Mackenzie Blackwood. Georgiev continued to struggle in San Jose, and they opted not to re-sign him, and he still doesn’t have a contract. It’s quite possible that Georgiev has played himself out of an NHL career, but it might not entirely be deserved. At the very least, some bad luck may have been in play. While Georgiev has never played at an elite level, a career .903 Sv% is still adequate, particularly in a tandem or backup role. An .875 Sv% is a massive drop off, and nowhere close to the level where he’s normally performed at in his career. At 29, it is possible that maybe he’s already surpassed his peak and is just experiencing a natural decline, but I don’t think he’d be a horrible gamble for a team still looking for goaltending depth, especially one that has the defensive structure to insulate him and make him comfortable again. Matias Maccelli, Toronto Maple Leafs 2024-25 Stats: 8 goals, 10 assists, 18 points What’s the outlier?: SH% was 2.4% lower and on-ice SH% was 3.7% lower than career average Maccelli broke out in the NHL in 2022-23 with the Arizona Coyotes, and after his first two full seasons in the league, he had established himself as a solid playmaking winger with 38 and 40 assists, while also having some finishing ability with 11 and 17 goals. However, as Utah started to break out in their debut 2024-25 season, Maccelli went the other way with just eight goals and 18 points in 55 games. As a result, the now-Utah Mammoth sold low on him and dealt him to the Toronto Maple Leafs this summer. That trade could prove to be an excellent buy-low move for the Leafs, as a lot of Maccelli’s dip in performance came from some bad luck. His shooting percentage of 9.3% was 2.4% lower than his career rate of 11.7%, but more importantly to Maccelli’s skillset, his on-ice shooting percentage of 6.62% was 3.7% lower than his career rate of 10.32%, which explains why he lost about 30 assists last season, along with also only playing 55 games. While that regression alone will be a big change in Maccelli’s performance this season, the fact that he’s joining a Leafs team that just lost one of the best playmaking wingers in the league in Mitch Marner and are looking for a replacement on the top line with one of the best shooters in the game in Auston Matthews could bode very well for Maccelli’s career. Carter Verhaeghe, Florida Panthers 2024-25 Stats: 20 goals, 33 assists, 53 points What’s the outlier?: SH% was 5.1% lower than career average While Verhaeghe certainly won’t complain about how his season went in the grand scheme of things, what with the Florida Panthers winning the Stanley Cup and all, how his season went individually was less than ideal. His assist total held the same with 33, but his goal total dropped significantly, going from 42 and 34 the prior two seasons to just 20 in 2024-25, which also saw him slip from a 70-point player to only 53 points. There were even rumours that the Panthers were potentially going to move on from him to free up cap space as his eight-year deal with a $7 million cap hit kicked in this summer. However, trading Verhaeghe would have been a massive mistake if they followed through with it. A quick look at the numbers shows that his drop in goal-scoring was mostly due to his shooting percentage of 8.3%, which was 5.1% lower than his career rate of 13.4%. Should that swing the other way in a positive regression, he may be due for 40+ goals, and even if it just stabilizes, he’d be good for 30. He actually already saw his play bounce back during their playoff run, where he had seven goals and 23 points in 23 games while shooting 13.5%, almost right back at his career rate. That actually set a new career-high for him in playoff production in one run, and he added to his reputation as a clutch scorer with three more game-winning goals. Jeremy Swayman, Boston Bruins 2024-25 Stats: 22-29-7 record, .892 Sv%, -6.43 5v5 GSAx What’s the outlier?: Sv% was .018 lower than career average It wasn’t exactly a normal season for Jeremy Swayman, as he missed the entirety of training camp due to not signing a contract with the Boston Bruins yet. He finally signed an eight-year deal with an $8.25 million cap hit, and after missing the first game of the season, he should have been set for his first season as a full-time starter. However, like the Bruins in front of him, he struggled significantly and never really found his footing in the crease. Now, it’d be irresponsible to assume that Swayman’s performance was solely due to a .018 drop from his career save percentage of .910. After all, he didn’t get a proper preseason to get warmed up, and as we’ve seen with previous contract holdouts, the player sometimes never catches up in those situations. On top of that, the Bruins were quite bad in 2024-25, and Swayman also had to get used to a larger workload. But luck could have very easily played a role in his drop off last season, especially when you realize that he never finished lower than a .914 Sv% prior to last season, which also means his career rate was actually .917 entering last season. It was a massive outlier, and I would imagine that Swayman will return to form this season, unless it turns out that he just can’t handle 50+ games a season.
Rory McIlroy Reveals Why He Didn’t Go To St Jude Championship
Last week, the playoffs for the FedEx Cup officially began. The top seventy players of the season have been selected, and they are now off to the races. The first of four events was the St Jude Championship in Memphis, Tennessee. Although it was supposed to have seventy players, there was a notable absence. Rory McIlroy, despite occupying the no. 2 spot in the FedEx rankings, was nowhere to be seen. The decision has led to confusion and criticism. The main question was why he had done it, and now McIlroy has answered that question. Recap On McIlroy And St Jude Fallout Rory McIlroy’s decision has brought him some criticism. Some were calling it disrespectful to the sport and players. People like Johnson Wagner were calling for rule changes to keep such an absence from happening again. He proposed mandatory attendance with wiggle room for emergencies, given that the FedEx Cup has an elimination aspect to it. McIlroy was able to skip the event without any kind of repercussion. Going into the playoffs, he was second in the FedEx Cup rankings, just behind Scottie Scheffler. He was so far ahead of most other players that some people did the math and concluded that he could skip St Jude and the BMW Championship and still be in the race. After the St Jude Championship, McIlroy’s FedEx Cup standing did not change. He remained in second but he will be attending the BMW Championship. McIlroy’s Explanation Ahead of the BMW Championship, Rory McIlroy attended a press conference to answer some questions before the tournament. One of the questions was on his absence from the St Jude Championship, and McIlroy answered that he just needed an extra week off ahead of a very busy schedule. “I just think that extra week off will do me good with the events coming up. Some big events that are important to me—the Irish Open, Wentworth (BMW PGA Championship), obviously the Ryder Cup. I want to try to win my seventh Race to Dubai over in Europe as well. There’s some things that are still important to me that I want to go play in. That was a big part of the reason why I wanted to take that extra week off last week.” During this same conference, McIlroy addressed the need for a rule change after his absence. Mostly questioning if it was even necessary, but ultimately saying that he would support it if need be. McIlroy also pointed out that any rules change would need to keep a lot of people happy, including the media rights partner and the sponsors. Those two like to see big names on the field. Up Next: The BMW Championship Rory McIlroy may have skipped the St Jude Championship, but he’s not skipping the BMW Championship. Nor is he skipping the Ryder Cup, Irish Open, Wentworth, or the Race to Dubai. It was a calculated move, as suspected, but it is for much-needed rest right before McIlroy goes into several big tournaments. McIlroy has nine very busy weeks ahead of him, and he needs to save his strength before each one. For now, though, he is focusing on retaining his position during the BMW Championship this week.
NASCAR makes decision on victory celebrations after Connor Zilisch fall
One of NASCAR's brightest young stars in Connor Zilisch could miss time after falling in Victory Lane following his victory in the Aug. 9 NASCAR Xfinity Series race at Watkins Glen. Zilisch slipped on the door of his No. 88 Chevrolet before suffering a hard fall in Victory Lane and breaking his collarbone. He underwent successful surgery on Tuesday, with a timetable for his return yet to be announced. Even in light of the viral incident, NASCAR will not restrict drivers from celebrating in a certain way moving forward, per NASCAR's Mike Forde. Drivers have long climbed on the roof or door of their vehicles on the frontstretch and in Victory Lane to celebrate victories, but accidents stemming from that action are rare. After winning the Cup Series race at Watkins Glen on Aug. 10, Shane van Gisbergen — who will likely be Zilisch's Cup Series teammate at Trackhouse Racing in 2026 — carefully climbed out of his No. 88 Chevrolet — something he does regularly, not just in response to Zilisch's fall. Zilisch did not race in the Cup Series race at Watkins Glen due to his injury. The Xfinity Series will return on Aug. 22 at Daytona International Speedway, with Zilisch leading the regular-season standings by seven points.
Bears make big decision amid concerning Caleb Williams reports
Second-year Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams and other starters were spectators for Chicago's preseason opener versus the Miami Dolphins on Sunday. While speaking with reporters on Wednesday, first-year Bears head coach Ben Johnson confirmed things will be different when his club hosts the Buffalo Bills for an exhibition matchup this coming Sunday evening. "Everyone's going to play," Johnson said, as shared by Courtney Cronin of ESPN. Johnson added that how many snaps Williams will take versus the Bills is "to be determined." The Bears will first host the Bills for a joint practice on Friday. Johnson came to this decision following multiple reports detailing the supposed struggles that Williams has endured throughout training camp. Most recently, Monday’s practice was allegedly "a low point for" Chicago's first-team offense and featured "Williams and receiver Rome Odunze both looking frustrated" after some failed connections. "I've been pretty consistent with the thought of reps, reps, reps are the most important thing to get [Williams] up to speed," Johnson explained. "And by the plan that we had a week ago, we were able to get him probably somewhere between 80 and 100 more reps than we would've been able to do had he played in the game. This week, it's a different schedule. Different length of time in terms of in between games and all that. And so, our plan right now is the guys that sat out last week, they will be playing this week." Those running the Bears hope that the hiring of Johnson, an advertised offensive guru, will help Williams become a top-tier quarterback after the 23-year-old won only five of 17 starts during his rookie season. However, Kevin Fishbain of The Athletic is among those who have mentioned that Williams has been responsible for a noteworthy number of inaccurate passes this summer. "I think the trust that we've been talking about from the get-go, that's really where that comes into play," Johnson added about risking the health of his starters by playing them against Buffalo. "We haven't been here with this group as a coaching staff. That trust has been earning, and we've been developing that amongst each other. It's not a one-way street. It goes both ways. And so I think that's just another step in the progression, you know?" The Bears will wrap up the preseason with a game at the Kansas City Chiefs on Aug. 22. It's unclear if Williams or other Chicago starters will see any action that Friday night.
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