Hitting the Blueline With Ottawa Senator Jake Sanderson’s 2025-26 Point Projection

As we wind down the off-season excitement, we still had another key point projection or two to handle. So, this is it. Today we present you Ottawa Senator defenceman Jake Sanderson‘s 2025-26 point projection. For defenders, it can be a bit trickier to nail down their potential season point estimates. However we could say, once defencemen reach a certain level, have earned the top power play quarterback assignment, they would tend to level off somewhat. So with all that in mind, let’s take a look at Sanderson’s situation. How could it translate into either of two outcomes, him staying the course on his terrific 2024-25 season, or will he manage to improve upon his success? Let’s get down to business.

Defenceman Jake Sanderson‘s ’25-26 Point Projection

With his inclusion in the 2025 4 Nations Face-Off tournament and more recently the Team USA Olympic orientation camp, it is hard to believe that this upcoming 2025-26 campaign is still only Sanderson’s fourth in the NHL. Even from the outset of his NHL career, it was clear he had the skating ability to be an NHLer. We will add, not unlike his dad, Geoff Sanderson. Moreover, what we quickly came to realize, is that not only does he have the speed to keep up with attackers, but also the strength and strong positional play to win those one-on-one battles once he gets to the puck.

As he improved, and the coaching staff gained more confidence in him, the offence has picked up. He eventually took the lead role on the Sens power play among defencemen, an honour previously held by Thomas Chabot. Now, with one full season as the top power play quarterback under his belt, we anticipate he really explodes in 2025-26.

The Lead Role On the Power Play

In 2024-25, the Sens power play had them 12th in the NHL at 23.7%. Interestingly enough, their 64 total power play goals, had them tied for the league lead with the Detroit Red Wings. Individually, Sanderson’s 30 power play points already had him second in the NHL last year, behind only Cale Makar with 35. Therefore, in some ways, the ceiling isn’t much higher for Sanderson to go in this regard.

In contrast, given the Sens team development, we can anticipate some improvements. Many of the young players are benefiting from another year of NHL experience, as well as familiarity within the group. For these reasons, we do think Sanderson will squeeze a few more points out of the power play. So, look for him to be closer to 35, opposed to 30 this year around.

The Influence of 5v5 Utilization On Jake Sanderson’s Point Projection

So next, what about his play at even strength? From 2024-25, Sanderson’s 5v5 percentage of shift starts in offensive zone of 9.0%, was good for third on the Sens blueline. His regular partner, Artem Zub, was quite a bit lower at 7.3%. This means Sanderson does get those last minute assignments when a goal is needed. Meanwhile, the duo was 1-2 on the Sens in percentage of shift starts in defensive zone. Sanderson was at 13.6% and Zub at 13.3%. Again, it is tough to know how this ultimately impacts Sanderson’s 5v5 scoring in 2025-26. The thought would be it would nice if the Sens didn’t have to rely on Sanderson for those high-leverage defensive zone faceoffs. However, if it ain’t broke, why fix it in some regards. Plus, his offensive starts were also fairly high.

In any sense, we do anticipate a slight shift in his usage, given the improvements of the players around him. But it won’t be anything substantial. So, he could be starting between 10-11% of his shifts in the o-zone, and drop his defensive zone start percentage down to 12-13%. The idea is, this could theoretically drive up his point totals by another 3-5 points, or so.

As it were, Sanderson’s 57 points from 2024-25 ranked him tenth among NHL defencemen. As a note, Chabot’s 45 points weren’t too far off, and had him ranked 19th. Sanderson had an average ice time of 24:27 and totaled 275 minutes of power play time. Meanwhile, Chabot was at 23:01 a game, and had just shy of 158 minutes on the man advantage. The takeaway here is, the share of ice time and opportunity would stay about the same. We wouldn’t anticipate a drop off in Sandy’s situational distribution, and there’s really not much room for growth there.