How Bruins free agent target Elias Lindholm may have cost himself $30 million

Emily Kaplan of ESPN.com reported that several sources around the league have indicated that the Bruins are targeting Lindholm, who was traded by the Calgary Flames to the Canucks at the trade deadline earlier this year.

The Bruins were also interested in Lindholm at the time, but they did not want to give up significant assets to make a trade for a player that they would not be able to control at season’s end. As a free agent acquisition the Bruins would not have to give up anything other than cash to make the signing later this summer.

Numbers going down for Lindholm

Lindholm’s value was quite a bit higher earlier in the year because he was not very productive for the Flames or Canucks in 2023-24.

Lindholm’s production has gone down significantly in the least two seasons. After scoring 42 goals and 40 assists for the Flames in 2021-21, his production slipped to 22-42-64 in 2022-23.

He had a total of 15 goals and 29 assists combined while playing for the Flames and Canucks this year. As a result of that downward trend, Lindholm is not expected to be offered the same kind of contract he would have received if he had been able to match his peak year of 42-40-82.

AFPA Analytics estimated in January that Lindholm’s play could have garnered him an offer in the neighborhood of seven years at approximately $8 million per year. However, those numbers have dipped considerably. That same organization now estimates that Lindholm will receive an offer of five years at $6.75 million. While that is still quite a sizable investment for the team that signs him, it is a downturn of $22.4 million from his earlier salary estimate.

Other estimates indicate that Lindholm may have cost himself as much as $30 million as a result of his drop in production.

That differentiation may help Lindholm fit the Bruins’ salary structure. Boston is estimated to have more than $20 million in salary cap space available this year, but general Don Sweeney and his team have been able to secure favorable deals with Zdeno Chara, Patrice Bergeron, Charlie McAvoy, Brad Marchand and David Pastrnak throughout the years.

Bruins need to upgrade at center

The Bruins were a weaker team on paper this season when veteran stars Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci announced their retirement shortly before the start of training camp. The Bruins were able to have a productive regular season with Charlie Coyle and Pavel Zacha manning the No. 1 and 2 center spots on the depth chart, but there appeared to be something missing in the postseason.

Bruins fans who want to back their team are more likely to wager than fans from other regions of the country because of their familiarity with hockey, according to MABetting.com. If they can acquire a top of the line center in the offseason, Bruins fans are likely to support their team both financially and through attendance at Bruins games.

In addition to adding a center in the offseason, the Bruins will also have interest in adding a high-scoring winger and a hard-hitting left-shot defenseman. They could also be interested in trading goaltender Linus Ullmark since fellow goalie Jeremy Swayman elevated himself during the postseason and is worthy of a new contract.