How Could Detroit Make Kirill Kaprizov Work?

The Player: 

Kirill Kaprizov is the Wild’s superstar, and believe me, he is a top 10 player in the league when healthy. His pace the past three seasons has been 112, 105, and 92. His three year average with that projected pace is 50G 52A and 102P. Kapriszov does this playing on the left wing of Zuccarello and Rossi primarily, but also at times alongside Eriksson Ek and Boldy. His linemates in Detroit would be Larkin and Raymond, who would be upgrades on any combination of the Minnesota teammates. Kaprizov has very favourable deployments at 63% offensive zone and against +0.2 QoC. He wouldn’t get that in Detroit, but the difference it makes in his points is likely not much. I’ll leave a blurb (1)  at the bottom of the post explaining why, if you really want to dive into that. Kaprizov does have injury issues. His availability is a pretty big problem. Now, this isn’t something that will just fix itself, but even if he can get to around 65 games in a season, he may still get 100 points. Kaprizov has hit 65 games 3 of the last 4 seasons and with a medical staff that can get 72 games out of Patrick Kane, I don’t think it’s outlandish. Not to mention, there is no internal answer to a LW1 superstar internally. Kaprizov is the only thing that Detroit will likely have of his calibre. Here’s the short answer; if he’s available and interested, Detroit should give him whatever he wants as long as it doesn’t go above 18M as the upper limit. 

Trading for Kaprizov:

Hey look, I can use my value calculator again. It’s a flawed formula that appears in my Red Wings trade value post, and I’ll be referencing those numbers a lot, so be prepared. Kaprizov, at his current cap hit, scored a 94. So Kaprizov’s value is 94+50 (because 50 is the average NHL player in these calculations, so in theory, if Minnesota got a random player to replace Kaprizov, he’d score a 50, so it adds to his score). That considers the current cap hit; if he were at 16M, he would be a 91. So if Detroit is trading for him, they would need to get a package totaling approximately 144 points. Now, Yzerman isn’t moving untouchables, so I’m not even going to bother adding Raymond or Seider to this. My most valuable asset on my board is technically Kasper, but I don’t see Detroit moving him. It would likely be draft pick-heavy, which makes this calculation difficult. Let’s start with Soderblom, who scored a 57. Let’s add in Danielson and Buchelnikov. Danielson is a blue-chip prospect, and Buchelmikov is a winger with upside. With that, Minnesota will almost immediately command a first round pick, which Detroit would almost have to give up as well as some later ones. If it is going to be prospect-heavy, the trade would likely look something like 

Detroit:

Kaprizov

Minnesota:

Soderblom

Danielson

Buchelnikov

2025 first round pick

2026 third round pick

Admittedly, I don’t think either side would do this. I think Yzerman values his depth assets, and Minnesota likely doesn’t want to lose a superstar for complementary pieces. Yzerman isn’t trading ASP, so let’s not get that twisted either. So, unless he forces a trade to Detroit for some unexplained reason, it’s likely in free agency. 

Signing Kaprizov:

So, I’ll humour Kaprizov signing in Detroit for 16M, although let’s be real, if he won’t play in Minnesota for that money, he’s not coming to a worse situation for it. Like the huge caveat for all of this is that Kaprizov likely doesn’t want to come to Detroit until otherwise stated. Detroit also made sense for Marner. If Kaprizov truly cares about money (which is the only way he’d come to Detroit), it would take more than what Minnesota offered him. All that being said, here we go.

$16Mx5:

The only way Kaprizov takes less is on a shorter term, and 5 years seems to be a number that works for both sides. Kaprizov likely wants to test the market again when he still has a bit of juice left. Hitting the free agency market again at age 33 would give him a last chance to secure a 3-4 year deal with some serious pay out. Detroit also gets him until he is 33, so his prime wouldn’t have too many more years. Detroit’s offseason checklist would look something like this:

Starting Cap Space: 44.4M

• Re-sign Edvinsson: $8.55Mx7, the Seider contract to keep him below the internal cap
• Re-sign Kane: $5.5Mx1, similar to what he has been signing for
• Re-sign Bernard-Docker: $2Mx1, if he’s half decent, keep him on the third pair
• Call up Sandin-Pelikka: $920Kx3, he should be ready
• Call up Danielson: $900Kx3, again, should be ready
• Call up Wallinder: $900kx1, losing waiver exemption
• Call up Mazur: $900Kx1, about time
• Sign Kaprizov: $16Mx5, get your star

Remaining Cap Space: 8.73M

• Must sign a top 4LHD

*Rasmussen and Wallinder are the extras

Down the road, this will leave Detroit with plenty of cap flexibility. Kasper will likely get around 8.5M if he continues his pace with the cap rising, something Detroit will be able to afford as when his contract is ready, Copp will be off the books, and so will Gibson. DeBrincat would need a new contract that same year, and if he gets 9.5M (again, rising cap), Detroit will be okay to pay it. Kane may call it a career, and none of the other youngsters need big contracts until ASP, who will not be a problem given the end of Compher’s deal and the skyrocketing cap. Detroit would have a clear 4-year contention window, and they would really start needing to sign high-end free agents to make it work. Fortunately, Detroit would have a few years left on a lot of those deals and the ability to start making big trades. 

$17Mx7:

This is probably the most likely scenario where Detroit gets what they want. Detroit would obviously want some term on Kaprizov, and Kaprizov wants big money. Adding on another million to what he declined might not be enough, but it’s certainly making a good case:

Starting Cap Space: 44.4M

• Re-sign Edvinsson: $8.55Mx7, the Seider contract to keep him below the internal cap
• Re-sign Kane: $5.5Mx1, similar to what he has been signing for
• Re-sign Bernard-Docker: $2Mx1, if he’s half decent, keep him on the third pair
• Call up Sandin-Pelikka: $920Kx3, he should be ready
• Call up Danielson: $900Kx3, again, should be ready
• Call up Wallinder: $900kx1, losing waiver exemption
• Call up Mazur: $900Kx1, about time
• Sign Kaprizov: $16Mx5, get your star

Remaining Cap Space: 7.73M

• Must sign a top 4LHD

Down the road, the same things come up, but the squeeze is a little tighter. The future trades and signings are a concern. Detroit would still likely need an option at RW2 that costs around 10M the money for this would likely come from using their ELCs low in the lineup to free up money. Again, as I look at the cap going u,p Detroit will have plenty of money to sign everyone, the pressure is can they make a contender out of their lineup. 

$18Mx7:

This is redundant; it’s the same problem as before, but with a tighter squeeze. The money might be a hair high for Detroit, but the truth is this: if you’re going to take a gamble, you need to do it now. 

Starting Cap Space: 44.4M

• Re-sign Edvinsson: $8.55Mx7, the Seider contract to keep him below the internal cap
• Re-sign Kane: $5.5Mx1, similar to what he has been signing for
• Re-sign Bernard-Docker: $2Mx1, if he’s half decent, keep him on the third pair
• Call up Sandin-Pelikka: $920Kx3, he should be ready
• Call up Danielson: $900Kx3, again, should be ready
• Call up Wallinder: $900kx1, losing waiver exemption
• Call up Mazur: $900Kx1, about time
• Sign Kaprizov: $16Mx5, get your star

Remaining Cap Space: 6.73M

• Must sign a top 4LHD

Down the road its the same issue, how does Detroit get one more elite RW on line two, keep DeBrincat and Kasper while leaving space to re-sign ASP. It gets tough at 18M but the truth is I’d still do it. 

1. Kaprizov’s production likely won’t dip too much at 5-on-5 because, despite being deployed in the offensive zone a lot, he also controls the play there a lot more. This is a little bit more of an eye test stat, but Detroit pretty commonly doesn’t hold the offensive zone well. While this can be attributed to a handful of things, I think the trickle-down effect would help. When a player like Joe Veleno is spending time on your top line, of course, the play will get pushed into your own end. There aren’t really numbers to back this up; that’s why I didn’t make this its own part explicitly.

More to Read:

Detroit Red Wings: Deal or No Deal

Top 10 Red Wings Prospects