How do the Leafs’ top-9 forwards compare to the rest of the Atlantic Division in 2025-26?

Toronto Maple Leafs general manager Brad Treliving delivered on his message of change, and the team’s forward corps have undergone dramatic revisions ahead of the 2025-26 season. Auston Matthews and William Nylander will be leading the charge, Matthew Knies is expected to take another leap, while Dakota Joshua and Nicolas Roy provide a new dimension to the team’s bottom-nine composition.

How do the Maple Leafs’ top-nine forwards compare to the rest of the Atlantic Division heading into the 2025-26 season? We’re going to take a deeper look, with the caveat that some teams could make some last minute adds: it’s entirely possible Max Pacioretty signs with the Detroit Red Wings, for example, and we’re not ruling out the possibility of James Hagens cracking the Boston Bruins roster out of training camp.

For the purpose of this exercise, all line projections are provided by Daily Faceoff.

The defending champion Panthers are the gold standard 

Florida Panthers

Carter Verhaeghe-Aleksander Barkov-Sam Reinhart

Evan Rodrigues-Sam Bennett-Matthew Tkachuk

Eetu Luostarinen-Anton Lundell-Brad Marchand 

You may be sick of hearing about the Panthers, especially after they demolished the Maple Leafs in Game 7, but the defending champions are poised to three-peat after pulling off the best free agency haul of the salary cap era. Barkov won the Selke Trophy, Reinhart was a finalist, while Carter Verhaeghe’s all-world speed allows the Panthers to roll out the best line in hockey. Verhaeghe-Barkov-Reinhart were the 20th-most commonly used forward unit in the NHL last season and controlled 61.6 percent of the expected goals via MoneyPuck, the greatest share of any line that played greater than 350 minutes in 2024-25.

And really, you don’t need the charts to quantify the all-around dominance that Florida’s top line displayed. This team has incredible versatility and interchangeability across the board. Bennett won the Conn Smythe Trophy and while Tkachuk could undergo surgery to repair his torn adductor, there are no signs that he will undergo the procedure imminently. This is a frightening top-six and the Panthers have the best third line in hockey by some distance.

The combination of Eetu Luostarinen, Anton Lundell and Brad Marchand was often viewed as the best third line of the 2025 playoffs. This is too narrow: they were one of the best lines in hockey, regardless of distinction, Marchand narrowly missed out on the Conn Smythe, while Lundell and Luostarinen are still rapidly improving. Toronto was one game away from unseating the champs, but that’s in the past, and looking ahead to the upcoming season, Florida is in a tier of its own.

The challengers 

Toronto Maple Leafs

Matthew Knies-Auston Matthews-Matias Maccelli

Max Domi-John Tavares-William Nylander

Dakota Joshua-Nicolas Roy-Bobby McMann

Mitch Marner was traded to the Vegas Golden Knights in exchange for Nicolas Roy, ending the Core Four era as we know it. Toronto will likely take a small step back during the regular season, as Marner was an all-world playmaker who registered a career-best 102 points last season. As a result of Marner’s departure, Toronto is also operating with a more balanced forward corps, as Roy is a true third-line centre, while the team is betting that Dakota Joshua’s career-best campaign in 2022-23 is the truer measure of his overall player profile.

Matias Maccelli will likely get the first look on the first line, with Knies and Matthews. Maccelli is a fascinating, high-upside bet for the Maple Leafs. He’s a dynamic playmaker coming off a poor year with the Utah Mammoth, and will be afforded much better linemates with the Maple Leafs. Maccelli told reporters that he’s a better player than what he’s displayed in the past, and the left-handed winger will be tasked with finding Matthews in the high-danger areas.

Roy is the third-line centre, although he will be pushed by Scott Laughton for his spot on his line. Laughton was acquired at the trade deadline with the idea that he’d provide plus-level defence and some scoring touch, but he never generated any meaningful offence and will be tasked in a fourth line role to start training camp. Internal competition is a good thing for a Leafs team that still boasts four star talents in Matthews, Nylander, Tavares and an ascending Knies. Will greater balance provide the key for the Leafs to topple the defending champion Panthers, or the Lightning, who will fight for the division title? This is essentially the thesis that governs the 2025-26 Leafs.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Jake Guentzel-Brayden Point-Nikita Kucherov 

Brandon Hagel-Anthony Cirelli-Gage Goncalves

Conor Geekie-Nick Paul-Oliver Bjorkstrand

Given its championship pedigree, the Lightning will certainly enter the 2025-26 season reeling from a five-game, first-round exit at the hands of the Panthers. This is still a very dangerous team and while they’re removed from their dynasty years, you cannot count any team led up front by Nikita Kucherov. Brandon Hagel, Anthony Cirelli and Kucherov combined for a league-best 72.1 percent share of the expected goals (150 minutes played as a line, minimum via MoneyPuck) and positional versatility has been a central component of Jon Cooper’s pedagogy.

Kucherov primarily played with Jake Guentzel and Brayden Point, outscoring teams 44-26 with a 51 percent share of the expected goals. It’s a phenomenal top line, with elite scoring and chance production from all three players, these qualities are just obscured by the Panthers. I voted for Cirelli over Barkov for the Selke Trophy, with Hagel on my ballot as well and while Gage Goncalves isn’t a top-six player naturally, pairing him with two all-world, all-around talents naturally boosts the talent profile.

Nick Paul has become one of Cooper’s most trusted players, while Geekie and Bjorkstrand are expected to provide secondary scoring. This team isn’t as good as the 2020 group, but make no mistake, the Lightning are firmly in the mix for the Atlantic title, with Cup-winning bonafides to strike fear into their opponents, stateside rivals notwithstanding.

The upstarts 

Ottawa Senators

Brady Tkachuk-Tim Stutzle-Fabian Zetterlund

David Perron-Dylan Cozens-Drake Batherson

Ridly Greig-Shane Pinto-Claude Giroux

Ottawa’s rebuilding phase is over after making it to the playoffs last season, and it will look to unseat Toronto and Tampa Bay as the leading challengers in the Atlantic. Tkachuk and Stutzle are genuine stars capable of taking over games, while Fabian Zetterlund’s skill profile makes him a fascinating, if imperfect fit on the top line. Dylan Cozens is entering his prime and he’s flanked by Drake Batherson, who is coming off his third-consecutive 60-point campaign and the ever-reliable David Perron.

Ridly Greig, Shane Pinto and Claude Giroux will benefit from shared continuity together, while Lars Eller can be moved up the lineup for spot duty within the top-six, if required. If you factor some internal improvement into the Senators’ projection, along with the Leafs being a few games worse without Marner, the Battle of Ontario could reach a scorching point during the regular season.

Montreal Canadiens

Cole Caufield-Nick Suzuki-Juraj Slafkovsky

Zack Bolduc-Kirby Dach-Ivan Demidov

Patrik Laine-Alex Newhook-Oliver Kapanen

Don’t look now, but the Canadiens are a real upstart in the Atlantic, they boast the best prospect pool in the NHL and are about two years away from their real contention window. This is an exciting team, and Montreal’s first line consisting of Cole Caufield, Nick Suzuki, Juraf Slafkovsky registered a NHL-best 49 goals together, with a plus-20 differential. Suzuki is coming off the best season of his career, where some believed he should’ve been a down-ballot Selke candidate, Caufield is a lethal scorer and Slafkovsky is beginning to show why he was selected first overall in 2022.

Demidov is an electrifying offensive talent, with some believing that he’s a better player than Philadelphia Flyers standout Matvei Michkov. Zack Bolduc caught fire during the second half of the year with the St. Louis Blues, while Kirby Dach, when healthy, is a reliable two-way forward, although he hasn’t quite lived up to his draft billing. This is an intriguing, combustible top-nine and Patrik Laine is a streaky scorer who can shoot the lights out when he’s at the top of his game, although consistency is always the issue. Michael Hage won’t crack the roster this year, but his high-end talent should give Alex Newhook and Oliver Kapanen a real push during training camp.

Montreal isn’t ready for contention yet, but it is rapidly improving and it wouldn’t be a surprise for them to close the gap in the Atlantic. This season’s projection may come down to Demidov’s ability to produce on a daily basis, but the Canadiens have an exceptionally bright future, with Suzuki and Caufield steering the current group.

The wild-cards

Boston Bruins

Morgan Geekie-Elias Lindholm-David Pastrnak

Pavel Zacha-Casey Mittelstadt-Viktor Arvidsson

Tanner Jeannot-Fraser Minten-Matej Blumel

You can see why we’d be a bit reticent to discount the Boston Bruins, but they’re simply not the team they used to be. Boston missed the playoffs for the first time since 2015-16 and are trending downwards ahead of the 2025-26 campaign. David Pastrnak is an elite scorer who can propel the Bruins’ offence, but he lead the team in scoring by a 49-point margin, with Morgan Geekie’s 57 points ranking second.

Viktor Arvidsson is two seasons removed from a 59-point campaign with the Los Angeles Kings, while Casey Mittelstadt has rarely seemed ready for a consistent top-six role. Fraser Minten is a NHL-ready player but will need to improve significantly on his offensive game, while Tanner Jeannot provides little value in any role at this juncture. Boston is a wild-card because of Pastrnak’s talent, but if he misses any time at all, this unit plummets to the bottom of the Atlantic.

Detroit Red Wings 

James van Riemsdyk-Dylan Larkin-Lucas Raymond

Alex DeBrincat-Marco Kasper-Patrick Kane

Michael Rasmussen-J.T. Compher-Mason Appleton

Detroit is constantly stuck in the middle and while it boasts some name-brand talent, it is a group that is worse than the sum of its parts. Lucas Raymond is a genuine star, while Dylan Larkin has proven that he can excel against best-on-best competition, but at this stage of his career, James van Riemsdyk isn’t suited for a top-six role. Patrick Kane is still a good offensive player, but placing him on a line with Alex DeBrincat, who boasts a similar profile, invites plenty of defensive zone headaches.

It could be a lot of fun to watch as a neutral, but the Red Wings are basically asking to play a high-tempo game, with little attention to detail on the defensive side of the puck. This is also a team that finished with the fifth-fewest goals at 5-on-5 last season. Will a major leap from Raymond propel the Red Wings into a playoff spot?

Requires significant improvement 

Buffalo Sabres

Zach Benson-Jiri Kulich-Tage Thompson

Jason Zucker-Josh Norris-Alex Tuch

Josh Doan-Ryan McLeod-Jack Quinn

Tage Thompson is a terrific individual talent, and Alex Tuch is a genuine star but this is a team that could be leading the Gavin McKenna sweepstakes. Zach Benson and Jiri Kulich are 20 and 21 years old, respectively, so there’s reason to believe they’ll show significant improvement, but as currently constructed, this is a team designed to lose matchups across the board, whether it’s intentional or not.

Buffalo received an underwhelming return for J.J. Peterka and while Josh Doan posted superior underlying numbers with Utah, it remains to be seen whether his defensively responsible game will translate in a new setting. This is a team that has a mix of young players who are miscast, two genuine stars, and a lot of question marks. When will the Sabres meaningfully push for a playoff spot? It’s been a tough time for Sabres fans to watch the Canadiens and Senators speed past them in the Atlantic rankings, and perhaps there will be further changes in-season.