Apr 26, 2025; Sunrise, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Lightning defenseman Victor Hedman (77) and goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy (88) celebrate after beating the Florida Panthers in game three of the first round of the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Amerant Bank Arena. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

How Lightning Ended Up on Brink of Elimination

Originally posted on Breakaway on SI | By Nick Horwat | Last updated Apr 29, 2025 8:00 AM ET

Despite having all of the necessary pieces to make another run at the Stanley Cup, the Tampa Bay Lightning are staring down their third straight first-round exit. After a 4-2 loss in Game 4 to the Florida Panthers, the Lightning find themselves down 3-1 in the series and on the brink of elimination.

For a moment in Game 4, things seemed to be looking up for the Lightning. Panthers’ defenseman Aaron Ekblad threw a forearm into the head of Lightning forward Brandon Hagel, and the on-ice officials didn’t call any sort of penalty.

The Lightning retaliated with two goals in about 10 seconds to take a 2-1 lead and the entire bench was fired up. Even head coach Jon Cooper expressed some enthusiasm.

Jon Cooper and the Tampa bench was HYPE after Erik Cernak's goal pic.twitter.com/15ImXzj0ag
— B/R Open Ice (@BR_OpenIce) April 29, 2025

Despite the momentum shift, the Panthers crawled back to continue taking full advantage in the series. Where has it all gone wrong for the Lightning? How did a sneaky Cup contender fall this far out of favor?

For starters, there hasn’t been much response from the Lightning to the physicality of the Panthers. Hagel may have been targeted following his own big hit against Aleksander Barkov, but they’ve let the Panthers get away with quite a bit more than expected.

The league has also let the Panthers get away with more than they probably should have. It’s still to be seen if Ekblad or Niko Mikkola will have supplemental disciplines for their discretions, but Matthew Tkachuk already got away with a questionable hit.

In Game 3, Tkachuk took a run at Lightning star forward Jake Guentzel, and there was no retaliation from the league aside from a five-minute penalty.

The Lightning also had one of the best power plays in the NHL heading into the playoffs, cooking at a 25.86% success rate. That was good for fifth in the NHL, but it’s been invisible in the playoffs.

In 13 man advantage opportunities against the Panthers, the Lightning have capitalized with one power play goal. Far from good enough, especially when they’re getting so many chances.

The Lightning are getting good work from their superstar goalie Andrei Vasilevksiy, but Nikita Kucherov hasn’t been his usual dominant self. He hasn’t scored a goal in the series and the Lightning are hurting because of it.

Heading into the postseason, the Lightning seemed to have everything a team needed to compete for the Stanley Cup. On the brink of elimination, however, things aren’t looking good in Tampa Bay.

This article first appeared on Breakaway on SI and was syndicated with permission.

More must-reads: