How Ruff is Matching Up Sabres Lines

Head coaches are constantly judged for their line combinations and defense pairs, but what goes hand-in-hand is how they match those lines against opponents. Good five-on-five line matchups can optimize a line’s capabilities, while poor matchups can hinder player performance. Lindy Ruff is still learning how best to maximize his team’s attributes, but recent adjustments are key in the Buffalo Sabres turning things around this season.

If you’re unfamiliar with how line matchups work in the NHL, the home team is designated “last change”. This means that the away team must send out their players for an upcoming faceoff first. The home team’s coaching staff can then analyze who is on the ice for the away team and send out who they want to match up against those players.

Generally, line matchups are part of the game plan going into a game. Opposing teams’ lines are reported daily from practices and previous games. Scouting what the opponents’ line combinations bring is fairly common.

Sabres Forward Lines

Ruff and the Sabres’ coaching staff are showing not only an understanding of their own players but also quality scouting of how they can exploit an opponent. The intricacy of how they are using their forwards is interesting and one of the reasons for their recent success.

The red-hot emergence of Tage Thompson, along with wingers JJ Peterka and Alex Tuch, is not random. Yes, Thompson is playing at an elite level. Peterka and Tuch are also very good players. The x-factor is Ruff’s ability to put them in situations they can dominate.

Over the last two games, Thompson has three goals and five points. Four points have come at even strength, as the top line has exploited plus-matchups.

Thompson, Peterka, Tuch

Thompson’s line was deployed against J.T. Compher, Patrick Kane, and Vladimir Tarasenko against the Detroit Red Wings. Compher is known as a defensively responsible, two-way forward, but Kane and Tarasenko are all about offense.

Ruff made the bet that his Thompson line would be more puck-dominant and that Kane and Tarasenko would struggle to play on the defensive side of the ice. He was correct, as Kane and Tarasenko didn’t even record a single shot on goal the entire game.

Red Wings head coach Derek Lalonde only made one adjustment to counter the dominance, by replacing Tarasenko with the more versatile Joe Veleno. Ultimately, the move wasn’t enough.

Ruff used the same strategy against the Dallas Stars, figuring that Peter DeBoer would be comfortable deploying Jamie Benn’s line against Buffalo’s best. Benn, Wyatt Johnston, and Evgenii Dadonov have been a go-to shutdown line in the past for the Stars.

There was one problem – the statistics showed that Benn was getting crushed in those matchups this season. He had around a 35% expected goals-for percentage heading into the game, signifying a major disparity in shot quality for and against when he was on the ice. Predictably, Thompson won that matchup as well.

Even as the away team in Chicago, Ruff short-shifted Thompson, Peterka, and Tuch when he could. This got them away from the Blackhawks’ best defensive forward, Jason Dickinson. The Sabres will win most matchups against their top line with the way Thompson is playing, but taking advantage of mismatches will amplify the success.

McLeod, Greenway, Zucker

Much like how Ruff is deploying Thompson and company against poor defensive lines, Ryan McLeod’s line is facing opponents’ top offensive lines. Tasked with shutting down opponents, McLeod, Jordan Greenway, and Jason Zucker are net-positive in goals when on the ice. Some of this is the surprising early-season offensive touch from Greenway, but regardless of how they are doing it, they’re winning in difficult situations.

McLeod and his wingers start in the defensive zone twice as much as in the offensive zone. This makes it difficult to neutralize the opponent, break out the puck, transition into the offensive zone, and create scoring chances. That’s a lot of energy exerted as opposed to winning an offensive zone faceoff and creating quality opportunities.

The awareness of Greenway and Zucker complements the speed of McLeod well. The surface statistics, such as plus-minus, may take a hit as the season progresses based on the difficult deployment. The advanced stats, however, will adjust for the quality of competition over a larger sample and help define just how good of a job Buffalo’s third line is doing.

Cozens, Quinn, Kulich

Dylan Cozens and Jack Quinn have had a rotation of wingers alongside them as they try to find their game. Zucker, Jiri Kulich, and Zach Benson have all had an opportunity on the Sabres’ second line, which is getting the coziest of matchups.

Kulich leads the Sabres with 50% of his faceoffs occurring in the offensive zone. Only Peterka is ahead of Cozens and Quinn behind him, as the entire line is above 44%.

Against Detroit, that meant facing Andrew Copp, Michael Rasmussen, and Christian Fischer. The trio is the Red Wings’ defacto shutdown line that won’t provide much offense. The Sabres tried to get Cozens out against Dallas’ fourth line as much as possible to avoid a difficult matchup against Matt Duchene, Tyler Seguin, and Mason Marchment. This meant that they faced the lighter push from Mavrik Bourque, Sam Steel, and Colin Blackwell.

Given that Cozens was essentially in McLeod’s role as the shutdown center under Don Granato last season, he should be excelling in an easier role. Lower responsibility also means less important ice time, but once Cozens and Quinn return to their previous form, they’re poised for flashes of brilliance.

Krebs, Malenstyn, Lafferty

Think of Buffalo’s fourth line as a safety net. Ruff can mix and match them in any situation for the Sabres, as they’re physical, defensively responsible, and fast. Speedy forechecker Nicolas Aube-Kubel returning from injury can only add to this, regardless of who moves in and out or up and down the lineup.

Ruff primarily used Peyton Krebs, Beck Malenstyn, and Sam Lafferty against Duchene’s line against the Stars. He rotated the trio to face lines two, three, and four at different points throughout the game against the Red Wings.

The versatility and confidence the coaching staff has in the fourth line is refreshing. It gives Buffalo options, especially at home, in playing the matchup game.

Sabres Defense

The matchups and correlation of the defense pairs are a little more concerning, although the strategy and theory behind it make sense. Ruff has used the same six defensemen in every game, with Dennis Gilbert getting into one game as the Sabres extra defenseman.

Dahlin and Jokiharju

Rasmus Dahlin is Buffalo’s best defenseman, and the early season results support the case. According to our Sabres Grades, he is the highest-graded Sabres defenseman on a per-game basis. Henri Jokiharju is second in the ranks, proving that the high correlation with the Thompson line is paying dividends.

Associating Dahlin and Jokiharju with Thompson, Peterka, and Tuch gives the forwards steady defensive zone play and the ability to push play up-ice. Dahlin’s stretch passes and quality first-pass decisions aid the group in transition, which is a big part of Thompson, Peterka, and Tuch’s game.

Power and Byram

Owen Power and Bowen Byram are drawing some of the most difficult matchups, so, if you’re quick to criticize Buffalo’s second pair, keep that in mind. They still have a positive goal differential at even strength, but there undoubtedly have been some struggles.

There may come a time when Dahlin starts to draw more minutes against top opponents, perhaps on a pair with Power. There is nothing in the data to suggest that any of the top four defensemen are best suited for the role, however, so the decision is more on the coaching staff and who they think can improve their defensive play.

From the NJHN Archives: Ruff Takes Responsibility for Devils Poor Play 

Samuelsson and Clifton

As far as third pairs in the NHL go, the Sabres have formed a pretty formidable one in Mattias Samuelsson and Connor Clifton. There is a lot of ice time with McLeod’s line, especially in defensive zone faceoff situations.

While the turnovers and decision-making aren’t always the best, Samuelsson and Clifton have actually been driving some of Buffalo’s best offensive play. The relative-to-teammate stats suggest the pair is taking advantage of less difficult matchups and pushing play into the offensive zone.

It’s not always going to be the most flashy, but it’s working. Should Ruff choose to switch things up and break up the top four, the Sabres would probably be able to field a well-balanced three pairs on the backend without much of a hindrance.

Lindy Ruff’s Coaching Impact on the Sabres

Over a nine-game sample, we have a little insight into what Ruff brings to the Sabres as the head coach. There’s a calmness about the state of the group and he has shown no inkling of overreacting early on. The Sabres have worked their way back to .500 while the rest of their division is shuffling in the other direction.

It’s Ruff’s experience in in-game situations and building out his lineup to support them that has helped the Sabres climb back into relevance after a disastrous start to the season. He understands that, eventually, players like Cozens and Quinn will have to step up when Thompson’s hot streak fades. Byram will have to round out his game and correct the poor underlying metrics. The goaltending can’t always bail the defense out, and Buffalo can’t always outscore their issues.

As the season progresses though, putting the Sabres in the right position to succeed at five-on-five is part of the long-term recipe for success.