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Toronto Maple Leafs Center John Tavares screens Tampa Bay Lightning Goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy. (Photo by Gerry Angus/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

How the Lightning Match up Against the Maple Leafs in a Playoff Series

Originally posted on The Hockey Writers
By Jack Pallotta | Last updated Apr 2, 2025 4:05 PM ET

With just eight games remaining in the 2024-25 NHL regular season, the Tampa Bay Lightning’s first-round opponent remains unknown. Numerous possibilities exist in the tight race for the Atlantic Division and Eastern Conference wild-card spots. Earlier this week, we analyzed how the Lightning matched up against the Florida Panthers. However, what if Florida jumps to first in the Atlantic?

How would the Lightning fare against the Toronto Maple Leafs instead? While the Maple Leafs have had the Lightning’s number recently, the Lightning look like the much better team on paper. This mini-series will continue to preview how the Lightning match up against their potential playoff opponents before the confirmed matchup. Furthermore, they could end up meeting a different opponent in the wild-card spot I’ll cover next week.

Offense

Five-on-Five

Beginning with offense at five-on-five, Toronto stylistically aligns with Florida because they don’t generate too much offense off the rush. The Maple Leafs prefer to dump the puck and rely on forecheck recoveries under head coach Craig Berube’s system. One advantage Toronto has compared to Florida is the ability to regroup and reload in the neutral zone, something the Lightning must keep an eye on through their gap control and awareness in this series. On the other hand, we know the Lightning are much more versatile and can attack off the rush or the cycle. The Lightning set up shop and scan for that perfect passing play, while Toronto has struggled to turn their offensive zone pressure into shot attempts at five-on-five, but they make their high-danger opportunities count through high-danger goals for per 60 (HDGF/60) via Natural Stat Trick.

Power Play

Toronto has the most intriguing power play in the entire NHL this season due to their unpopular strategy of having five forwards on the top unit. That’s right, the Maple Leafs’ power play operates without a defenseman on the ice. Mitch Marner is the quarterback at the center of it all and has lethal shooters on both his left and right. This strategy has worked wonders for Toronto, as they rank fifth in the NHL at a 26.2% success rate.

As for the Lightning, the first unit looks much different without Steven Stamkos blasting a one-timer from the left circle. Therefore, Tampa Bay has had to get creative on the man advantage and have utilized shots from Victor Hedman along with the net-front presence of Jake Guentzel much more this season. The only issue for Tampa Bay is that they have given up a surprising 12 shorthanded goals this season, tied for the most.

Defense

Five-on-Five

Compared to the Panthers, the Maple Leafs are a horrific defensive team. However, public analytics might not give them the credit they deserve. While the Maple Leafs surrender a boatload of shot attempts, most of these shots are coming from the perimeter. Similarly to the Lightning, the Maple Leafs prioritize protecting the house and not giving up high-quality chances. Tampa Bay and Toronto have faith in their goaltending: the Maple Leafs are right up there in high-danger scoring attempts against per 60 (HDCA/60) per Natural Stat Trick.

Penalty Kill

The Lightning rank third in the NHL with 10 shorthanded goals this season. This “power kill” idea might work well against a five-man unit of all forwards on Toronto’s top power play, despite those forwards being responsible defensive players. Tampa Bay will try to score with players like Brandon Hagel and Anthony Cirelli pushing for offense. Meanwhile, Toronto has a mediocre penalty kill that ranks 16th league-wide, so the Lightning have to draw penalties at even strength to win that special teams battle.

Goaltending

Unlike Florida, Toronto has two solid goaltenders Anthony Stolarz and Justin Woll. This flexibility in the net is an advantage over the Lightning, who ride or die on Andrei Vasilevskiy’s play. Stolarz has posted 18.04 goals saved above expected (GSAx) per Evolving Hockey and a .859 high-danger save percentage (HDSV%) at five-on-five. These numbers nearly rival Vasilevskiy’s, but don’t quite top them. The Lightning netminder ranks fifth with 18.98 GSAx and first with a .876 HDSV% at five-on-five. Toronto’s Woll is also a respectable option in net with 10.87 GSAx, but his HDSV% at five-on-five ranks 32nd amongst goaltenders this season. Unless the Lightning can chase Stolarz out of the net, scoring goals in high-danger areas will be a challenge.

X-Factors

X-factors are players who, if they can perform at a high level in a potential playoff series, would be difference-makers in the outcome. For the Lightning, their defensive core is critical to defeating Toronto compared to how they match up against Florida. The Lightning are more likely to have trouble defending than scoring in a series against a high-powered Maple Leafs offense. Players like J.J. Moser and Erik Cernak must step up big-time to stop Toronto’s high-flying offensive attack. The same goes for the Maple Leafs, as they need guys such as Chris Tanev and Jake McCabe to keep the Lightning off the board as well.

Early Preview: How the Lightning Can Win

It’s a toss-up as to whether the Lightning match up better against Florida or Toronto this season. If they are to face Florida, Tampa Bay will need their secondary waves of offense to come in clutch, but if they are against Toronto, they will need to hone in on their defensive structure. The Lightning are a much more well-rounded and dominant team this season versus the previous two, and Vasilevskiy is at the top of his game. If the Lightning can neutralize the Maple Leafs’ talent on offense, beat Stolarz on their grade-A chances, and not let the previous contests against Toronto beat them mentally, the team has a shot to get revenge from Round 1 of the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs.