How the Maple Leafs Replaced Marner—Without Replacing Him

Who’s replacing Marner? The trio includes Nicolas Roy, Matias Maccelli, and Michael Pezzetta. Something surprising happens when you combine their numbers over the past three seasons and project them across an 82-game season. Marner’s average production sits at 30 goals, 72 assists, and 102 points.

Mitch Marner’s 82-game Average Production Over the Past Three Seasons. 

His Replacement’s 82-Game Average Production Over the Past Three Seasons.

What are the combined averages of Roy, Maccelli, and Pezzetta? As the table shows, they total 38 goals, 69 assists, and 107 points. Even if you grant that it’s a bit of a mathematical trick, the message is clear: Toronto found a way to replace Marner’s offensive output by committee—and for much less money. Their combined cap hit is nearly $4.76 million lower than Marner’s new contract with the Vegas Golden Knights.

There’s more to it than points. Over the past three seasons, Roy, Maccelli, and Pezzetta have delivered more than 700 more hits than Marner. That kind of physical presence doesn’t appear on the score sheet, but wears opponents down over a season. And while it’s a stretch, one can’t help but picture the opponents’ confusion when Auston Matthews and Matthew Knies line up with all three of these new additions on the right wing. Of course, the team would be penalized for too many men on the ice—stupid rule—but it’s a fun thought. That line might be unstoppable. [Fans who remember the 1999 American sports comedy-drama movie Mystery, Alaska, might be able to picture such a scene.]

So Far, a Quiet Maple Leafs Offseason

Honestly, though, the rest of the Maple Leafs’ offseason has been underwhelming. In addition to Marner’s departure, Pontus Holmberg is gone from the everyday lineup. Max Pacioretty has expressed a desire to return for another season, but no team—not even Toronto—seems rushing to sign him.

The additions of Roy, Maccelli, and Pezzetta feel more like reinforcements for a depleted Marlies squad than clear upgrades to the NHL roster. That said, the Maple Leafs did re-sign Steven Lorentz for three years at a manageable $1.35 million average annual value (AAV), and they’re reportedly shopping David Kämpf and Calle Järnkrok. Given this year’s unrestricted free agent (UFA) class’ thinness, there’s a decent chance both players could be moved.

Holmberg Gone, Robertson in Limbo

On the restricted free agent (RFA) front, Toronto extended qualifying offers to Nicholas Robertson and goaltender Dennis Hildeby, but not to Holmberg. The decision not to qualify Holmberg was tied to arbitration eligibility. Given his regular usage ahead of Kämpf and Järnkrok last season, the team feared an arbitrator might award Holmberg a salary close to double his previous $800,000 cap hit. Management saw him as a solid player at less than $1 million, but not at $1.5 million. That gamble proved accurate—Holmberg signed with the Tampa Bay Lightning for $1.55 million per season.

Robertson remains an interesting case. He requested a trade last summer but was convinced to stay with the promise of a larger role. That didn’t materialize, and he ended the season in the press box. With Marner gone, a door might reopen, but he’ll have to compete with Roy, Maccelli, and Pezzetta for a roster spot. As an RFA, his options are limited unless he pushes for a move.

The Bottom Six Gets Younger—and Tougher

Pezzetta appears to be a younger, cheaper replacement for Ryan Reaves. He’s not the feared fighter Reaves is, but he’s not shy about dropping the gloves. In nine NHL fights over four seasons, he’s held his own. He also averages 291 hits per 82 games—more than Reaves’ 276. Both average eight minutes of ice time per night, but Pezzetta is 11 years younger and half a million dollars cheaper. Even a quirky part of us wonders what a Pezzetta–Reaves fourth line would look like. Not practical, but undeniably entertaining.

Easton Cowan has been moved to the Marlies roster, although he still has a chance to crack the NHL lineup out of training camp. He’s likely the biggest unknown coming out of the team’s training camp.

What’s Next for the Maple Leafs?

Perhaps the biggest reason to remain optimistic is the cap flexibility. The Maple Leafs still have close to $5 million in cap space. If they can move Kämpf and Järnkrok, they could free up more than $9 million in cap space. That gives them room to add a significant piece, now or closer to the trade deadline. There’s no need to rush, but the path is there.

While the Maple Leafs haven’t made a headline-grabbing move, they’ve opened up valuable options. Sometimes the best move isn’t about star power; it’s about setting the stage for something bigger. The coming months will be critical as management explores trade opportunities and free-agent signings to strengthen their retooled lineup.

Meanwhile, younger players like Cowan will strive to make an impact, and the team will seek to strike the right balance between skill, grit, and depth as they head into the 2025-26 season. Fans should expect measured moves rather than headline-grabbing trades as the Maple Leafs look to build a contender that can go the distance.

[Note: I want to thank long-time Maple Leafs fan Stan Smith for collaborating with me on this post. Stan’s Facebook profile can be found here.]