How the Oilers have changed since the Olympic break

Penalty Killing

Over the last few seasons, the Oilers have played a wedge +1 penalty kill structure, which led to one of the greatest shorthanded runs of all time in the 2024 playoffs. After regressing last season, the coaching staff changed the system to a 2-2 box. That change turned out to be a costly mistake.

Their penalty kill fell to 26th in the NHL by early February, and in the final nine games before the pause, Edmonton was only killing off 61.5 per cent of penalties.

I went into detail in an earlier piece, breaking down why the new penalty kill system failed, so that I won’t spend too much time on it. Essentially, the Oilers weren’t defending the slot or the net front nearly as well as they did with the old system.

The coaches used the break to reintroduce the wedge + 1, which has yielded better results. Their PK percentage has improved to 76 per cent over the last nine games, good for 18th in the league over that stretch.

They also received a boost from Dickinson and Murphy, who formed part of the Chicago Blackhawks’ league-best penalty kill unit this season. It’s still not where the Oilers want to be, but considering the spotty goaltending they’ve received from Tristan Jarry, a 76 per cent penalty kill is a big step in the right direction.

Offence

The Oilers have focused heavily on tightening their defensive structure, but the offence hasn’t disappeared. They’re still scoring at an exceptional clip over the past nine games, ranking second in the NHL in 5-on-5 scoring and first on the power play.

While the goals are still coming, the volume of chances has decreased recently. Edmonton is averaging roughly three fewer shots per game at 5-on-5 post-Olympics, and the expected goals have slightly dipped from 2.76 per hour to 2.64.

Some of the scoring recently appears to be inflated by their shooting percentage of 13.1, which leads the Western Conference over that timeframe. They appear to have sacrificed some offence in their pursuit of better defence, and while it hasn’t bitten them yet, eventually the goals will likely come down a bit if they don’t generate more chances.

One encouraging revelation for the offence, however, is Matt Savoie’s recent breakout. Savoie has eight points in the last nine games and leads all Oiler forwards in points per hour in that time, besides McDavid, Draisaitl, and Dach, who have only played 16 minutes.

Recently, Savoie was elevated to the top line, replacing the injured Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, and his chemistry with McDavid was evident. They generated numerous rush chances and posted dominant play driving metrics. The two connected for a beautiful McDavid goal late in the second period against the Blues.

The Nugent-Hopkins-McDavid-Hyman line had become stale recently and clearly needed a reset. Savoie gives them another option that might be worth sticking with even when Nugent-Hopkins returns. The offensive upside is there for Savoie.

Goaltending

So far, in this piece, I’ve been quite positive, and why wouldn’t I be? The Oilers are controlling play much better, improving from a 50.7 percent expected goal share to 54.2 percent over the past three weeks. Their team defence has gone from the bottom five to the top five. Their penalty kill is improving. Unfortunately, that’s where the positives end, because there’s an elephant in the room: the goalies can’t stop the puck.

Even with recent progress on defence, Edmonton ranks last in the NHL over the past nine games with an .849 save percentage.

A 7-2 drubbing at the hands of the Dallas Stars was the latest meltdown for Jarry, who has quickly approached unplayable territory. Over his last four starts, Jarry has an .811 save percentage, and his .855 mark as an Oiler is the worst in franchise history for a goalie with at least 15 games played.

Keeping pucks to the outside and protecting the slot isn’t enough right now. Jarry has a .937 save percentage on long-range shots according to NHL Edge, when the league average is .967. It’s not the high-danger chances that he is struggling with. It’s the medium and low-danger ones.

Could the Oilers do a better job boxing out forwards in front of the net and making it easier for him to fight through screens? Absolutely. But the defence cannot be blamed for this level of ineptitude. It’s not acceptable at the NHL level.

For all his faults, and he had several, Stuart Skinner never reached a floor quite this low, and Stan Bowman and the Oilers are surely feeling buyer’s remorse. Much like the Jack Campbell situation a few years ago, Edmonton has no choice but to turn to a goalie they never planned to be their starter.

Connor Ingram’s performance hasn’t been lights out by any means, but it’s been passable. He has an .878 save percentage and -2.39 goals saved above expected in his last seven starts. On the season, Ingram’s underlying numbers are eerily similar to Calvin Pickard’s, which isn’t ideal, but it’s certainly better than the alternative.

Jarry isn’t eligible to be sent down to the minors for the rest of the regular season because he was still on the roster at the trade deadline, but it wouldn’t surprise me at all if, come playoff time, we see an Ingram-Pickard tandem with Jarry in the press box.

Outlook

The Oilers have plenty of reasons to be optimistic based on their recent performance. The penalty kill system is slowly bringing them back toward league average, and the team defence has done a 180.

They’re doing precisely what they said they wanted to accomplish the rest of the season, by reducing the quality looks against and forcing more perimeter shots. The ultimate question is whether they can start to get some saves. If they don’t, none of the structural improvements will matter. It’s become increasingly unlikely that Jarry will find his game in time for the playoffs, but if Ingram can, there may still be a path for a deep run this spring.