How will the 2026 Olympic break affect the Toronto Maple Leafs?

The NHL will be attending the Olympic Games this February in Italy. Many fans are speculating which players will be representing their respective countries. However, not many people are considering the number of players each team will have.

Players participating

When you think of Leafs players who are going to the Olympics, you likely think of three or maybe four guys. Auston Matthews, William Nylander, and David Kampf. There is a bit of uncertainty surrounding Kampf being a Leaf next season.

In addition to those three, the Leafs have several players who could also represent their respective countries this February: Matthew Knies, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Matias Marccelli, and maybe even Chris Tanev or Morgan Rielly.

For the first time since 2014, organizations will have to factor in an Olympic break into the season plans. It’ll be different from the 4 Nations last season, obviously due to more countries participating and more teams having to send a variety of players.

Injuries

One common worry that comes with the NHL going to the Olympics is the risk of sustaining an injury. For any team, it’s likely their top-end players are going to Italy, and an injury would be a major setback. The last time the NHL participated in the Olympics, New York Islanders star John Tavares suffered a torn meniscus, ending his season.

At the Olympics, or any international tournament for that matter, players have an extra sense of pride. The Olympics will have a playoff-type intensity level, which will come with it. Health becomes an ongoing concern, specifically for guys like Matthews and Nylander, whose health will be crucial for the Leafs’ success this season.

The break itself

There is also some scheduling which could influence the way teams manage themselves this season. The Olympic break is 19 days long, and it will lead straight into the trade deadline. This could be an incentive for GMs to complete trades before the break.

As for the Leafs specifically, the Olympic break is sandwiched between their most extended road trip of the season. The schedule lists six consecutive road games, but in reality, it’s more like two separate trips, with four games before the Olympics and two after.

Also, fatigue may be a factor, similar to going on a deep playoff run, so players who participate could be exhausted compared to the guys who don’t and get to go to Mexico or somewhere tropical for three weeks.

Goalie issues?

Some teams will benefit from Olympic participation more than others. Most teams are not sending a goalie. Unless something surprising happens, Anthony Stolarz and Joseph Woll won’t be representing the United States, which is a positive for the Leafs. Having an Olympic-level net minder is a good problem to have, but fatigue is a worry.

Two division rivals have that problem. The Ottawa Senators will have Linus Ullmark, and the Montreal Canadiens have Sam Montembeault. As we saw at the 4 Nations, Montembeault may not play for Canada. The Leafs had four players participate in the 4 Nations. Matthews, Nylander, Mitch Marner, and Jani Hakanpää. The Leafs will likely have the same number of players, if not more, participate in the Olympics.

What happened after 4 Nations?

Speaking of the 4 Nations, when looking back at how the Leafs did following a much shorter break, they got hot. They went on a five-game win streak. However, they followed it up with a bit of a tough stretch, going 1–4–1, but finished the season with a 19–6–2 record after the tournament.

It’ll be interesting to see how teams handle the Olympics and how management handles the players who are involved in the tournament. Obviously, for the Leafs, it will depend on where they are in the standings. Looking at the Leafs’ schedule, they should theoretically have an easier time throughout the first part of the season, and if the Leafs can take care of business and win those games, they will have more of a luxury following the Olympics.