Hurricanes’ Jackson Blake is Approaching Star Status

His stats are beginning to reflect his ability. Blake is sitting at the point-per-game mark after leading the Hurricanes in production as they ran through the league to collect the second Stanley Cup banner in Hurricanes history. To put this into perspective, Blake has 34 points in his last 33 games, regular and postseason combined, including big production in the Stanley Cup Final. This isn’t just a hot-streak anymore.

That’s not what makes his talent look so limitless. Across 14 games this season, Blake has a 5-on-5 goals-for rate per 60 (GF/60) of 3.69. That’s the fourth-highest total among Hurricanes forwards, and only one guy ahead of him has played every game: his linemate Logan Stankoven. So his production is already excellent, and the Hurricanes are getting value from his ice time.

Blake’s expected goals-for rate (xGF/60) at 5-on-5 is 4.65, according to Natural Stat Trick. He’s underperforming his expected goals by almost one. He and his line can be more clinical in front of the net as his shooting percentage is only 7.1% this season.

His career average is 12.3% over two full seasons, so he’s been getting closer; as his goal scoring picks up, he’ll open more opportunities for his playmaking to take over. Shooting percentage isn’t the same as underperforming his xGF/60, but they are related. As his shooting percentage improves, he’ll close the gap between xGF/60 and GF/60.

Blake’s Rise to Stardom

The most impressive thing is that the Hurricanes have been plagued by injuries, but they haven’t slowed Blake and his line down. Taylor Hall spent some time on the shelf, but the second line didn’t skip a beat after Nikolaj Ehlers moved up to play with them. Blake has continued to tick along as the roster’s second-highest point scorer to start the season.

If we zoom out from the 5-on-5 picture, Blake has found himself on the top power-play unit as Seth Jarvis continued to work his way back to full speed after an injury. Blake’s got a goal and five assists on the man advantage. He’s not just filling in admirably; he’s done an excellent job keeping the Hurricanes’ production drop-off from being noticeable without Jarvis. The biggest compliment you can pay Blake is that Carolina hasn’t looked like it’s missing anyone who’s been out hurt, and part of that is how good he’s been.

200 Foot Growth

The Hurricanes are famous for their aggressive defensive system that requires players to excel in all three zones, and Blake has taken a massive step forward defensively. His goals-against rate per 60 (GA/60) is currently 1.01. That’s a little ostentatious, and it won’t stay that low. But the idea that the Hurricanes concede one goal every 60 minutes Blake and his line play is a strong indicator of how good that line has been defensively.

His expected goals against rate (xGA/60) isn’t as flashy, but it’s still only 2.14. It’s the eighth-best among all Hurricanes forwards this season, but it also shows how good the Hurricanes have been defensively as a team. Comparison is often the thief of joy, and that’s the case here, because it undermines how good Blake has been in his own zone.

However, he’s been a little sheltered. His line typically sees the fewest defensive draws of the four Hurricanes lines, and it’s easier to look good defensively when you don’t have to defend as much. That’s not a knock on Blake; it’s just another area for a young player to grow.

No Real Ceiling for Blake

When one looks at a player, they can usually see what they do well and what holds them back. For Blake, it’s easy to see what he does well. His hands are some of the slickest in the league. Many thought his skating may limit him, but according to NHL Edge, he is in the 54th percentile for max skating speed. He’s quick enough. We’ve seen him produce in the biggest moments, and he’s showing he can produce in large amounts.

The only limiting factor right now is his goal scoring. He has just three goals despite being in the 97th percentile for shot volume. Some of that is bad luck. Blake has seen a few of his best shots either robbed by the opposing netminder or pinged off the post. Some of it will come with the way he’s playing. However, if he can keep developing into a player who outperforms his expected goals totals and gets more clinical when firing on goal, he’ll become really difficult to contain.

I say there’s no limit; that’s not strictly true. While he is an above-average skater, he doesn’t have the explosive speed of some elite skaters. That will hold him back from a lot of conversations. That said, could he be like Artemi Panarin and not have his lack of upper-echelon speed hold him back? That is certainly a possibility, and that’s what makes Blake so exciting. He’ll develop into a very special player if he can keep raising his production.