'I don’t think Oliver Kapanen Will Finish The Season In Montreal,' says Jack Han

To understand more about where Han is coming from, it should be noted that the majority of the work that he has done as a hockey coach has revolved around analytics and video work. With that being said, Han brought up the data that shows while Kapanen has been producing well, it is mainly due to an unsustainable individual shooting percentage. As much as I originally thought of criticizing Han at first, his arguments make a lot of sense. To start, not only does Kapanen have a high individual shooting percentage of 23% after 11 games, but the Habs only have 39.79% of shots when he is on the ice at 5-on-5, which is the 2nd lowest on the team besides the injured Patrik Laine. 

According to Han, Kapanen is the player who is holding his line of Alex Newhook and Ivan Demidov back the most with his play. He reasons that Kapanen capitalizes on playing with a skilled player like Ivan Demidov, who nobody can deny is the line’s offensive catalyst. Han mentions that for a rookie to make the NHL, the player needs to have both luck and be good. 

In Kapanen’s case, he has more of the former, as his linemates and usage are very favourable for him to be able to produce his 7 points in 11 games. It’s also true that the mix of Demidov’s skills and Newhook’s speed has been something that has helped Kapanen get prime chances for him to bury, but nobody can continue to score on 26.7% of their shots on goal. 

The reality is that the majority of the Habs players are scoring at a much higher percentage than their normal average. Kapanen’s linemate, Newhook, for example, has scored on 4 of his 12 shots, meaning 33.3% of his shots on goal have gone in the back of the net. Eventually, both Kapanen and Newhook’s numbers will drop and scoring won’t come as easily. This will lead to lineup changes in hopes of finding scoring again, and we will see just how players fare without their previous linemates.

In this case, it will mean Kapanen gets moved away from Demidov and will likely continue to struggle scoring. Much like Han says in his newsletter, Kapanen may end up being a healthy scratch at some point once that happens. Unless he can prove to be a good defensive forward or provide value besides producing at a high level.

One important thing to note is that Kapanen has never played more than 55 games in a given season, which means, like most rookies who come from Europe or the NCAA, he’ll run into a wall due to the number of games that he will need to play. 

Right now, things are going very well for Kapanen on an offensive front, and it doesn’t seem like he could fall off anytime soon, but given what the analytics are saying, it could very well end up like Han predicts. 

In all honesty, I believe Kapanen will improve in the other aspects of his game and will be able to overcome an inevitable scoring slump to play as a role player in the lineup. Eventually, we will likely see Zack Bolduc and Kirby Dach (if healthy) or a centre acquired by trade, as Ivan Demidov’s linemates, to create a good scoring 2nd line at some point.

What do you think of Han’s declaration made on Tuesday about Oliver Kapanen?