Is keeping Stuart Skinner beneficial to the Edmonton Oilers?

With the Edmonton Oilers underperforming early in the season, patience is being tested. Between some questionable team defence and a poor save percentage, the team’s goals against average is a bit garish. In a chorus that has continued to swell over the seasons, many have become weary of starting goalie Stuart Skinner. Rampant speculation about goalie trades certainly adds to the discourse as well.

It is not the first time that the sky has been falling for Skinner, even less so for the Connor McDavid era Oilers as a whole. How good is Skinner? Can the Oilers win with him? How desperate should the team be to add a goalie? The questions begin to spiral, and do require some nuance to analyze fairly.

Let’s take a deeper look into why keeping Skinner might be the best thing for the Oilers.

Skinner’s overall numbers since joining the league

For at least one of the questions above the answer is simple. To say it plainly, Skinner has yet to lead his team to a Stanley Cup as the starter. That said, he has already proven himself quite a bit, leading the team to back-to-back finals. It has not always been pretty, and the quality of the Oilers team overall is certainly a help, but Skinner has built a very strong resume.

On pace for his fourth straight season to appear in 50 regular season games, very few goalies have played and won as many games as Skinner since he entered the league in earnest. Since the start of the 2022–23 season, Skinner is tied for eighth in games played. He stands alone in sixth for wins and ninth in saves. His 0.904 save percentage over that time is on par with that of Sergei Bobrovsky and Juuse Saros, and ahead of well regarded veterans Jordan Binnington and Jacob Markstrom.

These numbers become more impressive when playoff games are considered. Only Bobrovsky and Jake Oettinger have more playoff games or wins than Skinner since 2022–23. While Skinner is often discredited because of the strength of the Oilers, his contemporaries are blessed with some of the best rosters and most highly regarded GMs as well. His 0.893 playoff save percentage does not jump off of the page, but it is well above those of Vezina Trophy winners Connor Hellebuyck, Andrei Vasilevskiy, and Linus Ullmark over that same span.

In short, Skinner’s production is well above his reputation. His salary is a fraction of the goalies with similar numbers, meaning he is that much more valuable in a salary cap reality. As much as fans might be weary of him as a starter, the truth is there simply are not many goalies with his resume, and none that are as affordable.

This is not exclusive to the Oilers, either. Since being drafted in the third round in 2017, Skinner has won championships in the WHL and the AHL as well. It is rarely the most picturesque, but Skinner has consistently been able to battle through.

Fancy stats comparison to other netminders

Again, while the Oilers are a strong team, most would consider others like the Dallas Stars or Florida Panthers as better constructed. Still, team quality is levied against Skinner’s accomplishments more than it is for Bobrovsky or Oettinger. Outside of raw stats, some might turn to more elaborate statistics to illustrate their point.

Goals saved above expected has been on the decline since Skinner’s stellar 2022–23 season, but remains positive over his career. His quality start percentage is down this season, but is slightly above average for his career. These advanced statistics do not look as favourably for Skinner, but it should be noted that he has achieved these results with the workload of an elite goalie.

Overworking a goalie can lead to depressed results. There might not be a more obvious case of this in recent Oilers history than with Cam Talbot. Talbot had great stats with a small workload with the New York Rangers before joining the Oilers. His strong results continued with the greater workload for a time, but eventually caught up with him.

By 2018–19 Talbot had flamed out, enough to be shipped off by the Oilers. Since then his results have stabilized, often under more modest workloads. In all, Talbot started 240 games for the Oilers over his four seasons, regular season and playoffs combined. Four years into Skinner’s full time role with the Oilers, he has started 210 combined regular season and playoff games. Chances are Skinner will pass Talbot’s four year usage within this season.

Team context for Skinner

While Skinner is not a Vezina Trophy candidate, this can hardly be held against him. He has completely outperformed his draft stock and his cap hit. There is a somewhat tragic element to the story, an underdog overperforming for his hometown team that has received a lot of criticism.

Perhaps if the Oilers had another goalie to truly push Skinner his results might be better. With a lighter workload his stats might be better, enough that fans would be hoping for more starts from Skinner. Despite Skinner’s poor start to this season, he is outperforming Calvin Pickard. Still, some fans want to see more of Pickard, even preferring him to Skinner.

While he might not be a true number one goalie, it is not his fault that the Oilers have had no one else to push him out of that spot. Many would describe Skinner as at fault for the Oilers goaltending woes, when in fact he has been the only one keeping the goaltending respectable. For investment and expectation, Skinner has overdelivered.

Any fault for the goaltending as a whole is on the management. Former GM Ken Holland took a lot of grief for the signing of Jack Campbell, but since then the team has been shy to roll the dice on a high or mid priced option behind Skinner. After Campbell faltered Skinner was left to carry the starting load alone. While the Oilers are tight for cap space, the team has continually found money to spend on middle-six wingers, like Viktor Arvidsson or Jeff Skinner, while refusing to pay the price for a goalie.

Like Skinner, Calvin Pickard has out performed his contract. The team has clearly rallied around Pickard, who has played the best hockey of his career as an Oiler. It does seem to be an intentional strategy, and for the most part the Oilers have consistently received adequate goaltending at an affordable price. While it is true that it has not quite been enough, it has been very close.

Other goaltending options

Based on how close the team has been to glory, one might think that even a slight upgrade might be enough to make the difference. For now, many of the rumours involve other goalies who are by no means guaranteed upgrade over Skinner.

Jordan Binnington is the most decorated option, and likely the best option on the market. Others, like Elvis Merzlikins and Tristan Jarry, are far more speculative. All three cost roughly twice as much as Skinner does, which factors into things. Needless to say, if the Oilers could add any of these options alongside Skinner it would be a significant upgrade.

That said, there is some speculation involved in projecting some of them to be better than Skinner outright. Perhaps Merzlikins or Jarry would have better results on a stronger team, though both the Columbus Blue Jackets and Pittsburgh Penguins are off to solid starts this season. This uncertainty is compounded because of the salary cap, in which Skinner might need to be a counterweight to afford their salaries.

Binnington might be proven enough that he is an outright upgrade over Skinner, but between the acquisition cost, likely involving some retention, and the potential that Merzlikins or Jarry is a lateral move for Skinner, this becomes a costly exercise that might not improve the team. Simply put, Skinner is cheaper and more accomplished than most of the goalies who will be caught up in trade rumours.

Of course, the simplest solution might be promoting Connor Ingram to be Skinner’s backup. At his peak many thought Ingram to be a better option than Skinner, but Ingram is older and less proven. Still, he has not played well enough in the AHL this season to have earned the opportunity.

Skinner’s future with the team

The good news is that the Oilers finally have some interesting prospects in net. Both Samuel Jonsson and Nathaniel Day have built up strong resumes. The issue is that the Oilers system is quite crowded.

With Matt Tomkins joining Ingram to form the AHL tandem, Jonsson and Day have been left to split time in the ECHL. Jonsson’s results are particularly promising so far, but it is not necessarily ideal to have such small roles for the duo. Fellow prospect Connor Ungar has been left to spot start for three other ECHL teams as well.

In the end, all three prospects are far from being viable NHL options. That said, all three could be gaining more valuable experience than they are currently. Perhaps there is some method to this approach, a longer term plan that might see them move up as the season progresses. Jonsson was phenomenal in the Allsvenskan last season, and has likely earned some AHL starts this season.

There is hope that the Oilers might have some internal help from this group down the line, but that hardly matters in the context of this season. Clearly the Oilers are not in a hurry to fast track their development, as this pace seems overly cautious.

The Oilers should keep Skinner

Many things can be true at the same time. Skinner and Pickard can play better than they have so far this season. The Oilers need to be much stronger defensively than they have been this season. There are better goalies than Skinner and Pickard, but both have given the Oilers more than their contracts would suggest. In all likelihood, the Oilers defensive effort should be expected to improve, as should their team save percentage.

The Oilers would be foolish to give up on Skinner. He can be part of a package that upgrades the goaltending. He can also be part of a tandem strong enough to bring the Oilers to glory. He might even be good enough to be the starter for a Stanley Cup winning team. Finally, the Oilers should be assertive in improving their goaltending.