Is Nick Robertson finally reaching his potential?

The Toronto Maple Leafs are coming off a dominant 4–1 win against the back-to-back Stanley Cup Champion Florida Panthers. Once again, the Leafs can realistically make the playoffs, sitting two points out of a wild-card spot. One reason for the recent playoff push has been the effort of Nick Robertson and the third line.

Robertson has really started to come into his own this season, finally playing the type of game that is making him an NHL regular. The talent was always there, but it was the other aspects of his game that lacked maturity.

In this article, let’s take a look at how Robertson’s game has evolved and how the new-look third line has looked.

The potential was always there

Robertson was drafted 53rd overall in the 2019 NHL Entry Draft. Robertson has always been a prolific scorer at all levels. In his final OHL season with the Peterborough Petes, Robertson finished with 55 goals and 31 assists for 86 points in 46 games. In 60 career AHL games with the Toronto Marlies, Robertson has 27 goals and 30 assists for 57 points.

Even in the NHL, Robertson has famously been a “scratch and score” player. He would be scratched, come back with a vengeance, and usually score in his next game with the Leafs. In the 2023–24 season, Robertson scored 14 goals in 56 games. Last season, he scored 15 goals in 69 games. However, he has mostly played bottom-six minutes in his career.

When looking at it through this lens, Robertson might be the perfect player for a bottom-six role. After all, he has a motor and clearly plays every shift hard.

But the problem isn’t his goal scoring, nor the effort. It’s that he hasn’t played an overly physical game that is required to play in the bottom-six. Being 5’9 and 180lbs certainly doesn’t help. But we know that shorter players can still play physically; Brendan Gallagher and Brad Marchand come to mind.

As I wrote before, in Robertson’s arbitration case settled, I think Robertson has the skill to play a top-six role. However, given the players currently on the Leafs (when healthy), that’s going to be a tough order. I think what has been holding Robertson back has been the lack of commitment to his bottom-six role.

Until the last several games on the new look third-line. 

The new-new third line

A month ago, it seemed that the Leafs had found their new third line. The line of Bobby McMann, Nic Roy, and Dakota Joshua had skill and tenacity. However, with the injuries to Joshua and, more recently, William Nylander, Craig Berube had to get creative.

Throwing a line together of Easton Cowan, Roy, and Robertson at first seemed like a step down. Cowan is a rookie and still learning to play the game at the NHL level. Robertson is more of a skill player with a lethal shot than an everyday grinder.

But this has been perhaps one of the better lines this year. Robertson and Cowan show chemistry together every shift and are breaking out at the same time. Despite Cowan’s inexperience, he is starting to show the skill he showed us in junior and can match Robertson’s speed.

But it’s also the fact that Roy is the perfect centre to “babysit” these two kids. Roy can win faceoffs, sitting at 54% on the year. He is also a physical force, notably starting the Leafs’ domination through the first 40 minutes against the Panthers last game by laying the body.

But what has been noticeable, as a unit, the line has been producing offensively. According to Natural Stat Trick, this line has played together for 26 games this season. They have an expected goals for of 3.47 and an expected goals against of 1.32. The trio are playing both offensively and defensively well.

Is Robertson finally reaching his potential?

A key contributor to the offence of this third line has been Robertson. Since the Marc Savard firing, Robertson has three goals and four assists over seven games. So far in 40 games played this year, Robertson has nine goals and 12 assists for 21 points. He is one point behind last season’s points total in 29 fewer games.

Robertson is on pace for the rest of the season to finish with 18 goals and 23 assists for 41 points. This is three goals more than his career high of 15, and shatters his previous career high in points of 27.

It’s no secret that Robertson’s path to being an NHL regular has had many trials and tribulations. Between the slew of injuries sustained earlier in his career and the COVID-19 pandemic, his development curve has taken weird twists and turns. But perhaps we are witnessing Robertson finally reaching his potential.

If Robertson continues to commit to being a third-line player for the Leafs, he will provide the offence that the bottom-six has historically lacked for the Leafs, and will get a bigger payday at the end of the season.