Justin Carbonneau 2025 NHL Draft Profile

Carbonneau’s on-ice production

Carbonneau just finished his third season in the QMJHL with the Blainville-Boisbriand Armada. He was second in scoring in the Q with 89 points (46 goals, 43 assists) through 62 games as he led the Armada to the playoffs. While they bowed out in the first round, losing 4–1 to the Sherbrooke Phoenix, Carbonneau impressed many. Three points through the five games (all goals). His three goals led his team in the series. 

He has been watched for some time now—dating back to his bantam days—as he grows into his game and is now a first-round prospect.

Carbonneau started out in the QMJHL with the Rouyn-Noranda Huskies but only played two games there. He was then traded over to the Blainville-Boisbriand Armada, where he played the rest of his time in junior. He registered 18 points in the 30 games he played in his CHL rookie year with the Armada.

How international play helped Carbonneau’s development

He was part of Canada’s U17 team back in 2022–23, which seemingly kick-started his rapid increase in development. The season after, he had 59 points—31 goals and 28 assists—through 68 games. Then this year, his draft year, he exploded, lighting the lamp seemingly every chance that he got. With 89 points—46 goals, 43 assists—in 62 games, he was one of the best players in the QMJHL this year.

This season, he was named to Team CHL in the CHL USA Prospects Challenge. In the two games of the series, Carbonneau recorded two assists. At the start of the season, Sportsnet’s Sam Cosentino had Carbonneau ranked 30th. Today, he is projected in and around 15th, which is where our consolidated rankings have him.

Carbonneau’s strengths

Carbonneau’s greatest strength is easily his shot and his absolutely wicked release. He has used that shot to his advantage, fooling goaltenders all the time. Along with the shot is his one-timer, which he used on multiple occasions. His sweet spot was the left circle or lower for the one timer, which has been extremely effective. His movement without the puck is exceptional; almost all of his goals were him getting into open space and being able to use his shot. 

Carbonneau is also a play driver and isn’t afraid of taking a hit. He goes into the corners and doesn’t shy away from a puck battle. He drives the net and chases rebounds, and has great deking skills that allow him to get past defenders. Paired up with his skating ability, he is an offensive threat.

Carbonneau’s areas of improvement

The major weakness in Carbonneau’s game is his defensive ability. In the defensive zone, he understands his role for the most part. There are times when he doesn’t fully backcheck and come back to the play. He also has moments where he seems lost on defence. However, when he is playing his best hockey, he can snatch the puck or lay a hit and create a chance the other way.

There is also a risk with giveaways. Carbonneau has been the main play driver ever since the Armada traded overager Jonathan Fauchon to the Rimouski Oceanic this season. Fauchon was also the only player to score more points than Carbonneau this season in the Q. With the puck on his stick a ton, giveaways will happen, but it is still a cause for concern. 

Carbonneau’s comparables

As for comparables when it comes to Justin Carbonneau, a recent one is a guy like Cole Eiserman. Eiserman was seen as a one-dimensional player with a wicked shot. However, I believe that Carbonneau is a little better than Eiserman in the defensive zone. 

As for a current NHL comparable for Carbonneau, three guys come to mind. Brock Boeser of the Vancouver Canucks, Cole Cauflield of the Montreal Canadiens, and Alex DeBrincat of the Detroit Red Wings. All are high-flying offensive threats who are relatively average in their own zone. Although Carbonneau has the opportunity to improve his game, those are his comparables heading into this draft.

Fit with the Flames

As mentioned before, Carbonneau is 15th on our consolidated rankings, which is around where the Flames may be selecting. However, he wouldn’t be that great a fit with Calgary. Calgary needs a centre first and foremost. The way that he would fit with the Flames is his offensive ability. Calgary struggled immensely when it came to goal scoring last year; a guy like Carbonneau could help that.

Calgary needs a centre, not another winger. Justin Carbonneau doesn’t fill their biggest need, and because of that, there is a good chance that even if they have the chance, Calgary will probably not take him.

Summary

Carbonneau is an offensive machine that will punish you if you make a mistake in your own end. He can be a bit one-dimensional, but his defensive game is just average and not bad. He has been watched ever since Peewee when he played in the Quebec International tournament. 

Carbonneau has shown improvement over time and turned himself into a real prospect in this draft. There are still many better prospects than him this year; however, for a team that just missed out on the playoffs, Carbonneau would make an exceptional pick-up.

Risk: 2/5

Reward: 4/5

NHL comparable: Cole Caufield, Alex DeBrincat, Brock Boeser

Projection: Power play regular, middle-six winger

Check out all of The Win Column’s individual player profiles of selected 2025 NHL Draft prospects:

Matthew Schaefer | Michael Misa | James Hagens | Porter Martone | Anton Frondell | Victor Eklund | Roger McQueen | Caleb Desnoyers | Jackson Smith | Jake O’Brien | Carter Bear | Radim Mrtka | Lynden Lakovic | Brady Martin