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May 27, 2025; Edmonton, Alberta, CAN; Edmonton Oilers center Connor McDavid (97) skates against the Dallas Stars during the third period in game four of the Western Conference Final of the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Rogers Place. Mandatory Credit: Perry Nelson-Imagn Images

Kaprizov Contract Could Complicate Maple Leafs’ McDavid Chances

Originally posted on The Hockey Writers | By Jim Parsons | Last updated Sep 30, 2025 4:45 PM ET

The Toronto Maple Leafs will be one of many teams that show interest in Connor McDavid should the superstar become available from the Edmonton Oilers. Still unsigned and going into the final season of his current NHL contract, everyone is waiting on a McDavid decision. However, a big piece of news out of Minnesota may have complicated matters.

The belief is still that McDavid will sign in Edmonton. But if he doesn’t, teams will line up to make their pitch for the best player in the NHL. Meanwhile, a good player, who is arguably at least one level lower than McDavid (and also a winger), Kirill Kaprizov, signed a record-setting extension with the Minnesota Wild for $17 million per season.

On the surface, one would think that means it will take more to get McDavid to leave the Oilers. It also means Toronto might have to spend more to attract McDavid to the Maple Leafs.

What Would A Team Like Toronto Have to Pay McDavid?

While McDavid’s situation is unique — because, well, he’s McDavid — any deal outside of Edmonton would arguably see the Oilers’ captain using Kaprizov’s contract as a benchmark to gauge his own value. Should he stay with the Oilers, it will be less about money and more about winning and building a contending team around him. Should he leave, those things will still matter, but probably not quite as much.

For Toronto, that means having at least $17 to $20 million to spend on McDavid as a free agent. They’ll be trying to make two pitches: that they’re a legit Stanley Cup contender, and that they can offer as much or more than another contender (and there are many) would.

Can the Maple Leafs Make That Work?

Toronto isn’t in a bad cap situation, but as much as $20 million will be tight. Currently, the Leafs have $20,320,951 in cap space to spend next season. That is, assuming the Leafs don’t re-sign any of Matias Maccelli, Nick Robertson, Calle Jarnkrok, Scott Laughton, or Bobby McMann.

It would be logical to assume GM Brad Treliving will be content to let all leave if it means getting McDavid, but that leaves next to nothing left on the cap, assuming McDavid is eyeing more money to leave the only teams he’s ever known.

The question for McDavid will then be, are the Leafs as good as the Oilers, or good enough as constructed to win? Taking into account that he makes any team exponentially better, that’s a difficult question to answer. There is nothing to suggest from the Maple Leafs’ playoff history that this is a team that is as closer or closer than the Oilers. It will be what the team does this season that will help convince McDavid, assuming he can be convinced.

Only Rentals This Season for the Maple Leafs

Another thing to consider is how the Maple Leafs would approach the trade deadline, should the prospect of trading McDavid in the summer become a reality. Treliving can’t afford to add a contract that runs into next season. Eliminating any of his cap space would be disastrous toward the end goal of having the money needed to attract McDavid next July.

Does that impact what the team can go after during the season?

All of this is a long-shot hypothetical based on several what-if scenarios. There’s really know telling what McDavid will prioritize and where his head is at. For all anyone knows, this Kaprizov deal doesn’t even register for him, having no impact on how he approaches his negotiations with the Oilers or thinks about his future.

Having said that, if Kaprizov suddenly being the highest-paid player in the NHL alerts McDavid to the reality of what he “should be worth”, things just got more complicated for several NHL teams, including the Maple Leafs.

This article first appeared on The Hockey Writers and was syndicated with permission.

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