Leafs–Oilers Trade Pitch Gains Attention — But Doesn’t Add Up

If there’s one word that comes to mind when reading a recent HockeyBuzz trade proposal between the Toronto Maple Leafs and Edmonton Oilers, it’s disconnect. Not necessarily between the teams — but between reality and feasibility.

The suggested deal has Toronto trading Morgan Rielly (with $2.5 million retained) to Edmonton for Andrew Mangiapane and a conditional second-round pick that upgrades to a first if the Oilers win the Cup. On paper, it’s framed as bold and logical. In practice, it falls apart under even mild scrutiny.

Why the Leafs and Oilers Trade Idea Falls Apart Quickly

Start with the obvious: money and term.

Rielly is 30, signed at $7.5 million through 2030, and carries a full no-movement clause. Retaining $2.5 million brings his hit down to $5 million, which, while not egregious for a player of his caliber, is still something the Oilers can’t afford. Not to mention, it asks the Maple Leafs to take on five more seasons, which is a massive long-term commitment for a Leafs team already navigating cap gymnastics every summer.

Doing that to acquire Mangiapane — a previously productive but now very inconsistent middle-six winger — makes little sense, especially when the return doesn’t meaningfully address Toronto’s biggest needs.

Then there’s value. Even if Rielly is no longer Toronto’s undisputed No. 1 defenseman, he remains their most proven puck-moving blueliner with playoff experience and leadership equity. Guess what the Oilers have? Puck-moving defensemen. Between Evan Bouchard and Jake Walman, the Oilers are already investing time and energy in another puck mover in Alec Regula, and have just acquired Spencer Stastney. What Edmonton needs is more shutdown blueliners capable of playing steady, reliable defensive minutes.

The Oilers Have Other Priorities

Asking the Oilers to take on another puck mover and mess with their already tight salary cap situation is a tough sell. For the Leafs, moving that player for a winger and a conditional pick, in a market where defensemen are at a premium, would be selling low. Oh, and the Oilers don’t have a first in 2026. That would mean the first becomes a 2027 pick, at the earliest.

Granted, this trade is really the Maple Leafs trying to acquire a first-round pick, but the condition only creates that scenario if the Oilers win the Stanley Cup. Those are long odds, despite the Oilers reaching the Final in two consecutive seasons.