Maple Leafs Already Having Buyer’s Remorse With Bobrovsky

You could point to the Maple Leafs’ 5-4 loss to the Seattle Kraken as a game that Bobrovsky cost the team. He allowed five goals on just 17 shots. Those are two points the Maple Leafs probably should have had.

There’s no shame in losing to the Colorado Avalanche, but Bobrovsky struggled once again. He allowed five goals on 27 shots and gave up 1.79 goals above expected in the 6-3 loss.

The Maple Leafs are paying Bobrovsky $7 million per year for the next two and a half seasons, but they are already in danger territory just two months into his new contract. At 8-11-2, their season is already slipping away, and they need to rethink how much they’re playing him.

Stolarz Is the Better Option

There’s really no question here. The Maple Leafs should turn to Anthony Stolarz as their 1A goaltender. The numbers speak for themselves. He’s only played in eight games, but he’s clearly been the better goalie.

Stolarz has a .900 save percentage in eight games played, and his underlying metrics are better than Bobrovsky’s. Stolarz has allowed 0.2 goals above expected, meaning he’s saving what he should. You can’t say the same of Bobrovsky.

Win/loss record for goalies is similar to win/loss record for starting pitchers in baseball. It doesn’t tell the whole story, but the Maple Leafs have been two different teams with Bobrovsky and Stolarz.

Stolarz has a 5-3-0 record, a 105-point pace over 84 games. Meanwhile, Bobrovsky has a 3-8-2 record, a 61-point pace over 84 games. Essentially, the Maple Leafs are on pace for a top-five pick when Bobrovsky starts. But when Stolarz gets the nod, they would be on pace with some of the best teams in the Atlantic Division.

That’s not to say the Maple Leafs would continue on a 105-point pace if Stolarz becomes their No. 1 netminder, but he gives them the best chance to win. And with their season already teetering on the edge, it may be best to turn to him before it’s too late.

Maple Leafs Should Have Run it Back in Net

It’s easy to question the Maple Leafs’ decision to sign Bobrovsky in hindsight. But it already didn’t make sense when they signed him in July. It makes me wonder whose decision that was. Because signing a 37-year-old (now 38) goalie who showed signs of decline last season doesn’t seem like something an analytically-inclined GM like John Chayka would do.

Was that Mats Sundin’s decision? We might never know fully, but the decision has backfired at the start of this season, and it may not get better. Truth be told, the Maple Leafs would probably have been better off running it back with last season’s goaltending trio: Stolarz, Joseph Woll, and Dennis Hildeby.

Injuries would have been the concern with that trio. Stolarz and, specifically, Woll have struggled with injuries, but they had better results.

Woll finished last season with an .899 save percentage and allowed 1.4 goals above expected across 39 games. He was basically a league-average netminder. Stolarz’s numbers were similar, finishing with an .893 save percentage while allowing 2.3 goals above expected. He was slightly below the league average.

Meanwhile, Hildeby was arguably the Maple Leafs’ best goaltender last season. He posted a .914 save percentage while saving eight goals above expected across 20 games.

Woll is now with the Philadelphia Flyers, and while they have struggled mightily as a team, he’s been solid, posting a .902 save percentage while saving 4.8 goals above expected. He’s not the problem.

Meanwhile, Hildeby is backing up Andrei Vasilevskiy in Tampa. He has an .899 save percentage and has saved a goal above expected. He has an .891 expected save percentage, so he’s slightly outperforming his expected numbers.

Instead, the Maple Leafs brought in Bobrovsky and kept Stolarz as his backup. It hasn’t worked out, and it’s not a surprise. Bobrovsky struggled mightily last season, and those struggles have continued to start 2026-27.

Stolarz should get more of the workload. He gives the Maple Leafs the best chance to win games, and lightening Bobrovsky’s usage could help him find his game. But no matter how you slice it, this looks like another in a long list of acquisitions that haven’t worked out for the Maple Leafs in recent years.

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