NHL News

Home

Teams

Quizzes

Newsletter

Mitch Marner, Toronto Maple Leafs (Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images)

Maple Leafs Are Shutting the Door on McDavid

Originally posted on The Hockey Writers | By Jim Parsons | Last updated Jun 24, 2025 8:35 AM ET

If there’s one thing the past 48 hours or so have proven, it’s that the Toronto Maple Leafs are likely going to get worse before they get better. Speculation that the Maple Leafs are lowballing John Tavares and letting Mitch Marner walk in free agency is problematic, and there is a very good chance the Leafs will take a step back next season. If that happens, fan sentiment that Connor McDavid might be a shoo-in to choose them in free agency will become a long shot, at best.

The Maple Leafs Are About To Get Worse

There’s a chance Tavares stays in Toronto. However, reports are surfacing that the two sides are far apart on terms of a new deal, with insiders now wondering if the veteran center might leave. While some fans and analysts argue ‘good riddance,’ the reality is that the Leafs don’t have a backup plan for a second-line center. They’ll have the money to spend to find one, but none will come as cheap as Tavares, even if Toronto doesn’t get him at a number starting with four on his AAV.

Meanwhile, Marner is all but gone. He’s setting up shop, ready to speak with several teams about his future. The debate is no longer about whether he’s leaving, but rather about where he might go and what kind of contract he might sign. The Vegas Golden Knights, Dallas Stars, Carolina Hurricanes, Los Angeles Kings, and others are all rumored to be ready to make big pitches. Toronto is barely in the conversation anymore.

These two losses are massive for the organization. And, if you look at free agency, there isn’t much out there to replace the production of these two players.

McDavid’s Priority Is Winning

Looking past the reality that McDavid will probably re-sign with the Edmonton Oilers, let’s consider what matters most to the best player in the league. Toronto fans determined he’s coming will argue that family and “coming home” play a significant factor. They might. However, they don’t matter as much to McDavid as winning does.

If you’re one of those fans under the assumption that McDavid would prioritize the Maple Leafs over anyone else, ask yourself why. Why would he choose to join a team that got worse and not better? Remember, this is a team that hasn’t advanced past the second round of the playoffs, despite taking Florida to seven games.

There is no indication that the Leafs will be better next season or in the seasons to come than they were in the 2024-25 season. Most indications suggest they’ll regress. Is that the team you’re leaving a comfortable situation in Edmonton for? Or, if McDavid is fed up with Edmonton (doubtful, but possible), would he not look at teams like Florida, Dallas, Vegas, Los Angeles, Colorado, or any number of other teams that have proven they’re more likely to win than Toronto?

Most of these teams will likely pitch him, and many have tax incentives to do so. All can argue they’re closer than the Leafs, some selling the idea that McDavid puts them over the top.

Even a team like Montreal arguably has strong odds of landing McDavid if winning matters in the next few seasons. They are so well-positioned in terms of their salary cap that they can easily fit him and remain competitive with a young core that is only getting better. One could easily argue that’s more appealing to McDavid, especially if Montreal makes significant strides in the 2025-26 season.

Toronto Is Hurting Their Own Chances

There is a difference between maintaining cap flexibility and pushing back on players who have previously sought the most lucrative contracts and are visibly struggling. The Leafs are in jeopardy of becoming that team, especially if the draft and free agency don’t produce suitable replacements for the players they’re potentially losing.

If there’s one thing McDavid knows, it’s that he can’t win by himself. Even with arguably the second-best player in the world, he got close twice, but couldn’t close it out. If Toronto lets several of its key players go, how much do they realistically have to offer that will entice McDavid to consider them?