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Morgan Rielly, Toronto Maple Leafs (Amy Irvin / The Hockey Writers)

Maple Leafs’ Contract Rankings Dip Tied to Serious Concern

Originally posted on The Hockey Writers | By Jim Parsons | Last updated Aug 7, 2025 1:00 PM ET

While the Toronto Maple Leafs have largely avoided disastrous contracts, their lack of great value deals is quietly creating a gap between them and the NHL’s true Stanley Cup contenders. That’s not ideal news for fans who look at the business of hockey and how contracts and salaries impact the team’s chances on the ice.

A recent analysis of contract efficiency around the league by The Athletic’s Dom Luszczyszyn highlights a growing concern for Toronto: the Leafs are paying fair prices, but getting average returns on players who are getting older. When compared to cap-savvy teams like the Florida Panthers, Tampa Bay Lightning, and Carolina Hurricanes, the Leafs fall well behind. Meanwhile, three division rivals rank in the league’s top five for value.

Toronto’s Revamped Blue Line Has an Age Issue

As different as the defense corps is and as the team gets bigger and harder to play against, there’s also an issue. According to Luszczyszyn:

“Toronto’s biggest issue is age, particularly on defense. On the surface, deals for Jake McCabe, Chris Tanev, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Brandon Carlo and even Morgan Rielly look more than fair for the upcoming season and maybe even the year after. But it’s beyond where the value looks sketchier given the age of everyone involved.”
source – ‘NHL contract efficiency rankings 2025: Which teams spend their money most wisely?’ – Dom Luszczyszyn – The Athletic – 08/06/2025

This could explain one of the reasons that both Carlo and Rielly have popped up in trade rumors. There is nothing imminent and Rielly has trade protection, but speculation surrounds both players.

Overall, Toronto finds itself in the middle of the pack in terms of contract value. Rielly’s contract earned a C grade, with a 35% positive value and a total surplus of -$5.3 million. Carlo was also in negative at -$0.8 million, earning him a C+ grade.

Defensively, the issue is looming age. Contracts for Jake McCabe, Chris Tanev, and Rielly look fine short-term — but projecting value beyond a year or two raises concerns.

What About the Leafs’ Forwards?

As for the forwards, David Kämpf stands out as a rare poor-value deal. It got the worst grade on the team at C-. However, the Leafs are actively trying to move his contract, which, if they are successful in doing so, would bump their overall ranking from 15th in the NHL.

What the Leafs don’t have are any real team-friendly deals beyond John Tavares. He is also aging, but his contract is so friendly, it outweighs the fact that he’s now 34 years old.

Teams with Cup hopes need difference-makers on team-friendly deals, and that’s an area where the Leafs are falling short. The Leafs also managed strong summer deals, especially for Matthew Knies and John Tavares. Even Auston Matthews, despite a dip last season due to injuries, remains productive at $13.3 million. But William Nylander’s new deal, though popular among fans, doesn’t stack up well next to other elite wingers’ contracts.

The Goalies?

The goalie tandem of Joseph Woll and Anthony Stolarz offers terrific value. Potentially concerning is that Stolarz’s deal ends at the end of the 2025-26 season. It’s unclear where the two sides sit on extension talks and if re-signed, that he’ll remain one of the team’s better values.

This Toronto roster is in win-now mode, but it lacks the value advantage of outstanding contracts. They aren’t the worst in the NHL, but being in the middle of the pack should be a tad concerning. The biggest worry should come on the revamped blue line. It appears only to have so much time to do its job before regression becomes a serious problem.