Maple Leafs Core: '0% Chance All of Those Guys Are Back'

Johnston believes that Matthews and Nylander will be exempt from any trade discussions, but there will be chatter about Marner and Tavares, both of whom do not have long-term deals on the books in Toronto. Tavares has one more season at $11 million and Marner one more year at $10.9. Moving one or both of them would free up a hefty sum, enough to get better depth on the team and try a different balance on the roster that is more conducive to winning playoff hockey games.

Johnston agreed with Jeff O’Neill who argued that you simply can’t give that much money to four guys and expect to be deep enough to win. Johnston went further and said their cap hits take into account health. Not using Matthews’ illness or Nylander’s issues during this season’s playoffs as an excuse, Johnston noted those kinds of absences will be expected every year and when all of your money is tied into a few stars, when one of those stars goes down, it’s disastrous.

The Maple Leafs Have No Choice But to Make a Change

Johnston also noted that if the Leafs stick with this group, it will actually be worse for them financially than it was this season. Matthews and Nylander will both see significant bumps in pay this summer and these increases outweigh the increase in the salary cap. Percentage-wise, the Leafs will have more money tied up in the core four than ever before.

The question becomes who you trade, how you get that person to waive their no-move clause, and what you get in return. Moving one or more of the core four won’t be easy. It’s something the team should have done before every member of the group had the leverage to control their fate.