Maple Leafs don’t have cap space but have flexibility

If there was any doubt that the Toronto Maple Leafs would spend to the salary cap, that has been alleviated. PuckPedia currently lists the Maple Leafs as exceeding the cap by $2.75M, a non-issue given that Max Domi will likely begin the season on the long-term injury reserve, and the cap can be exceeded by $10.4M (10%) during the offseason.

There are also practical elements to consider. Zack MacEwen and his $875,000 cap hit are likely bound for the Marlies, and if the Maple Leafs wished to run with the bare minimum roster size, another $1.35 million could be freed up by sending Troy Stecher to the Marlies. The Domi LTIR situation likely makes it a non-issue.

If the Maple Leafs are done making moves, cap compliance has likely been achieved.

The thing is, the Maple Leafs should probably not be done. The team has improved, but in the sense that they aren’t one of the six worst teams in the league anymore (in all likelihood).

Work needs to be done, and there isn’t cap space to do it.

The reality of a Morgan Rielly move still looms large. If the move is made with cap space being the key asset in return, the Maple Leafs will gain some flexibility.

A money in/money out trade remains a possibility, and the Matthew Knies trade rumours won’t go away for that reason. His $7.75M cap hit is something the Maple Leafs could explore as they determine “what’s next?”

Anthony Stolarz as a $3.75M backup doesn’t seem long for Toronto, even if he might be an important safety net to Sergei Bobrovsky. John Chayka went all in on Bobrovsky, and if he is clearing out every other goaltender from the Treliving era, Stolarz seems like he could move as well.

The remaining players that seem like they could be moved are Steven Lorentz ($1.35M), Dakota Joshua ($3.25M), and Oliver Ekman-Larsson ($3.5M). Lorentz may not be what Chayka wants in the bottom six, and there are cheaper 13th forwards in the organization. Dakota Joshua’s stats put him at odds with Chayka’s reputation for a numbers guy. Ekman-Larsson seems like the most moveable asset of this trio.

The one last thing to consider is Chris Tanev’s health. He was limited to 11 games and was shut down completely by late January. Nothing has been communicated, but the Maple Leafs would have the best information on Tanev’s health status and if LTIR space exists as a result.

Beyond 2026-27, the Maple Leafs find themselves in the unique situation of having their entire roster under contract for 2027-28 as well. With that, there will be a $9.5M increase in the salary cap, which looks like a pure upgrade opportunity. The 2028-29 and the expiration of Auston Matthews’ contract could coincide with the next reset, if required.

The Leafs may not have cap space, but they can function in the dollar-in/dollar-out reality. Without NHL roster restricted free agents to worry about, offer sheets aren’t a concern. The cap situation will continue to improve, and the Maple Leafs can lock into the stability of their lineup for a couple of years after a significant overhaul this summer.