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Auston Matthews and William Nylander of the Toronto Maple Leafs (Jess Starr/The Hockey Writers)

Maple Leafs Have the Most to Gain From Winning Atlantic Division

Originally posted on The Hockey Writers | By Zach Berta | Last updated Mar 15, 2025 10:05 AM ET

The Toronto Maple Leafs currently hold second place in the Atlantic Division with a 39-23-3 record, totaling 81 points. They sit just four points behind the reigning Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers, putting them in a prime position to contend for the division title. Securing the top spot would provide Toronto with a much more favorable playoff path, increasing their chances of making a deep postseason run.

Based on how the playoff race is unfolding, the Maple Leafs are likely to face either the Tampa Bay Lightning—my Eastern Conference dark horse—or the first wild-card team in the East. If you’re Toronto, a matchup against a team like the Ottawa Senators, Columbus Blue Jackets, or another wild-card contender is far more desirable than facing a battle-tested Lightning squad. That’s not to say the wild-card teams would be an easy out, especially if a team like the New York Rangers sneaks in, but they would still be a more manageable challenge compared to Tampa Bay.

Simply put, no team in the league has more incentive to win their division than the Maple Leafs.

What’s at Stake?

The Maple Leafs have won just one playoff series since the 2003-04 season, which came in 2022-23, when they defeated the Tampa Bay Lightning in six games. However, their postseason run was short-lived as they were eliminated in five games by the eventual Eastern Conference champion, the Florida Panthers. Since the 2016-17 season, Toronto has consistently faced tough first-round opponents, with their playoff history looking like this:

A clear trend has emerged: In five of their eight playoff appearances during the Auston Matthews era, the Maple Leafs have been eliminated in a Game 7. They’ve blown multiple 3-1 series leads, but also overcame a 3-1 deficit last season—only to fall short in the end. Their first-round opponents have been anything but easy, often featuring teams that went on deep playoff runs. In fact, the Bruins (2018-19), Canadiens (2020-21), and Lightning (2021-22) all reached the Stanley Cup Final the same year they eliminated Toronto, though each ultimately fell short of winning it all.

Winning the division this season would be a massive advantage for the Leafs, allowing them to avoid both the Panthers and Lightning in the first round. Instead of facing a Stanley Cup favorite or a battle-tested veteran squad, they’d likely draw a more favorable matchup—potentially setting the stage for their best playoff run in years.

Best Maple Leafs Team in Matthews Era?

With this current Maple Leafs roster being one of the best, if not the best, of the Matthews era, now is the time to capitalize. Over the summer, general manager Brad Treliving made key moves to address positional needs, signing Chris Tanev to a six-year contract and Anthony Stolarz to a two-year deal. The Maple Leafs’ goaltending and defense have been stellar this season, both of which could be critical factors if they make a deep playoff run.

Depth has been a strength at times this season, and the team made key additions at the trade deadline to reinforce it. By acquiring defenseman Brandon Carlo from the Bruins and center Scott Laughton from the Philadelphia Flyers, the Leafs filled crucial gaps in their lineup with players who can make an impact down the stretch.

The best-case scenario for Toronto is winning the division and avoiding a first-round matchup against a true Eastern Conference powerhouse. If they can secure the top spot, not only could they break through with a series win, but they would also have a legitimate shot at reaching the Eastern Conference Final.

Do you think winning the division would benefit the Leafs more than any other team? Let me know your thoughts!