Mar 10, 2026; Montreal, Quebec, CAN; Toronto Maple Leafs forward Auston Matthews (34) plays the puck during the third period against the Montreal Canadiens at the Bell Centre. Mandatory Credit: Eric Bolte-Imagn Images Eric Bolte-Imagn Images

Maple Leafs' Losing Streak Fuels Draft Lottery Hopes

Originally posted on Breakaway on SI | By Deepanjan Mitra | Last updated Mar 12, 2026 7:00 PM ET

The Toronto Maple Leafs are probably having their worst season in a decade. With eight straight losses leading up to their game against the Anaheim Ducks, Toronto also sits dead last in the Atlantic Division with a 27-27-11 record and just 65 points. Not to mention, with a .500 points percentage, they are 26th in the NHL standings.

But there's a silver lining to all this. This losing streak is fueling Toronto's draft lottery hopes in the most Toronto way possible. With just over a month remaining in the regular season, the Leafs sit among seven teams with point percentages at or below .500 competing for lottery positioning.

Five Western Conference clubs and two Eastern teams currently occupy the bottom tier as the race for Gavin McKenna and Ivar Stenberg intensifies. But while fans hope to bag McKenna, the Maple Leafs face one glaring problem with their draft lottery positioning.

Lottery Mechanics and Top Prospects

Toronto traded its 2026 first-round pick to Boston last year in the ill-advised deal for defenseman Brandon Carlo, meaning they only keep the selection if they win the lottery itself. The Leafs are essentially tanking for a pick they probably won't receive.

The 2026 NHL Draft Lottery takes place on May 4 with two separate draws determining the first and second overall selections. Teams can move up a maximum of ten spots from their finishing position, meaning only the bottom eleven clubs have realistic shots at landing McKenna.

Even the last-place finisher holds just a 25.5 percent chance of selecting first overall thanks to the lottery format. Toronto currently sits at 6.5 percent odds to win the top pick, though those numbers could shift dramatically if their free fall continues through the final seventeen games.

McKenna leads a draft class that also features Swedish star Stenberg as the consensus top two prospects. McKenna has dominated at Penn State following a standout performance at the World Junior Championship, while Stenberg continues producing elite numbers in Sweden's top professional league.

Toronto's Remaining Schedule

The Leafs face a brutal closing stretch that includes matchups against Dallas, Carolina, Minnesota, and the surging Buffalo Sabres. If Toronto continues playing as poorly as they have during this eight-game skid, they could genuinely fall into the bottom three before the season concludes.

Toronto hasn't surrendered as many core pieces as other lottery contenders, though they're definitely still feeling the effects of losing Mitch Marner last summer. The club subtracted Scott Laughton, Bobby McMann, and Nic Roy at the trade deadline, but kept most of their established roster intact.

The main question now centers on whether Craig Berube and general manager Brad Treliving remain part of the organization by draft day. Toronto's collapse has been so complete that the futures of both decision-makers appear uncertain as the losses pile up down the stretch.

This article first appeared on Breakaway on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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