Maple Leafs need to embrace chaos in the offensive zone

We’ll start with the data because on the surface level that looks pretty good. The hottest parts of the heat map are right down in front of the net (although there are also a significant number of point shots coming from a team lacking shooters who can consistently break 90mph on their shot.) The Leafs held the statistical advantage throughout the game as well:

What’s interesting is the drop in high danger attempts in comparison to the overall attempts. That is one of the key narratives that was picked up on during the intermission by Chris Pronger, who highlighted two key facts about the Leafs shot attempts, the first being that they weren’t near the blue paint much (as you can see that was remedied in the third period.), and the other point, which requires a bit more of an eye test, but perhaps is even a bigger concern for the Leafs, is that Cam Talbot was given plenty of time see the shots and square himself to the shooter, even being able to come out and challenge in some situations. That seems like a fair assessment from someone who understands hockey a lot better than I do.

By the eye test, what Pronger said holds up:

The above play by Matias Maccelli is a nice one and this is a good chance on goal. The cross ice pass to find Brandon Carlo would have had a higher probability of success as a one-timer or at the very least if Carlo had received the pass cleanly. When the puck reaches Carlo, Talbot is still in transition and not fully squared to the shooter. By the time Carlo actually shoots, it is Talbot with a full unobstructed view of a defensive defenceman taking a shot and not only is he able to stop it, he’s able to prevent the rebound that John Tavares could have benefited from.

Harping on this play is a tough one because the Leafs executed it well and Carlo played it well for the type of player he is.

Another example of the Leafs doing things right but maybe not having the ideal person taking the shot is Dakota Joshua springing Nicolas Roy for a breakaway. Roy’s offensive tool kit isn’t his calling card, but his decision to go high and short side against a goaltender who knew exactly where the shot was coming from meant the play died on the first chance instead of any hope of a followup for Dakota Joshua as the trailer.

Similar to the above chance by Brandon Carlo, one of the greatest goal scorers in the NHL helped Talbot out by giving him a bit more time and line of sight than he probably should. The play is good, the chance is good, but the reality is that there is a clear line of sight between Talbot and Matthews, and the brief time Matthews spends handling the puck is enough time to give Talbot an opportunity to make the save.

All three of these were great plays and strong saves by Talbot, and there isn’t much of an argument against the notion that the Leafs generally outplayed the Red Wings on Monday, but the lack of chaos in the Wings zone on strong opportunities was all Talbot needed to keep Detroit in the game.

While generally doing a lot of things right the Leafs were guilting of telegraphing some passes, launching the puck on net as soon as they entered the zone, and even when in close attempting shots against a goaltender already in butterfly squared to the puck with little opportunity to go high. That’s where forty shots show control of the puck but didn’t make it seem like Talbot was actually stealing the game up until the third when he had to deal with Auston Matthews coming in alone.

The Leafs first goal on shot 33 of the game involved a full blown puck cycle involving McMann, Knies, Tanev, and Matthews, and allowed for Knies to get into a high percentage spot behind Talbot that was created by the puck moving fast around the zone leaving the goaltender unset and the Wings scrambling to get into place.

The Leafs second goal came from an unexpected pass through choas in front of the net making it difficult for Talbot to see Jarnkrok.

The disorientation on both goals is something the Leafs need to thrive for and comes from blending the skill of their top players with players who willing to pay more of a physical toll.

The Leafs are in the bottom half of the league when it comes to expected goals per 60 and are in the middle of the pack for high danger shot attempts, both numbers pointing to lower percentage shots being taken.

It is early in the season, and the Leafs are going to need time to figure out who they are and how they score, but Monday’s game against the Red Wings certainly served as a reminder of where things have gone wrong in the past for the Maple Leafs and something that they can actively work to change.