
Offer sheeting players that are restricted free agents are a tough and risky situation for both sides. On one hand, it can force one team to make a decision, while the other team risks giving up assets and signing a player in hopes of things working out. It’s something that doesn’t happen often, but when a player with upside could be made available it can make an interesting discussion.
That’s where the Anaheim Ducks and RFA defenseman Olen Zellweger are at right now. He hasn’t played a game for them at all in the playoffs as they’re in the midst of their second-round matchup against the Vegas Golden Knights. Not getting the play time when you’re looking to develop and further your career isn’t ideal and this could lead to a difficult decision where maybe he could be the odd man out on a deep blueline.
We have seen this situation play out before where things may be sour and a team can swoop in to make a move. In comes the Toronto Maple Leafs as they easily could use someone like Zellweger on their blue line. While he could still stay in Anaheim, the Maple Leafs should force their hand.
Note: Zellweger did play in Game 4 before this wasted posted. He recorded an assist on the game-winning goal.
Given the potential that Zellweger has to offer, he should be given every chance to succeed and develop. That hasn’t quite been the case. Despite slightly improving from 20 points in his rookie season to 22, his average ice time dropped from 18:58 to 16:59 this season which is down to almost two minutes.
He has 51 points in 164 career games and of his 22 points this season, 14 were primary points. His 119 individual scoring chances for had him ranked 42nd overall among defenders in the league, showing that alone he has the ability to generate offense. Even looking at his impact charts, he’s still the kind of defenseman that can have a positive one.
Zellweger needs a new contract and the Maple Leafs could make a low-risk trade and get sign him to a contract, but there’s also the notion of them putting in an offer sheet like the St. Louis Blues did with Philip Broberg. He wasn’t happy with the lack of opportunity with the Edmonton Oilers and the Blues signed him to an offer sheet along with Dylan Holloway.
Could the same happen with Zellweger? Broberg was 23 when this all went down and Zellweger is 22. The Blues offer sheet was for two years at $9.16 million, an AAV of $4.58 million. The Oilers didn’t match and they got a second-round pick as compensation. The Maple Leafs could offer up a similar contract and AAV to the Ducks for Zellweger or they could even lower it at around $3- $3.5 million. It would be well worth the risk and the price to give up to get some mobility and offense from the blue line.
It’s working out well with the Blues and it could work out with the Maple Leafs. Zellweger was a second-round pick himself in 2021, so that could be a balanced trade off if the Ducks choose not to match.
This is no doubt a no brainer move that the Maple Leafs should act on and target Zellweger. A 22-year-old, puck-moving defender with great speed on breakouts and on the rush? That instantly checks off all the boxes the team needs in order to be more skilled and faster on the backend.
The opportunity to get meaningful minutes for the Ducks hasn’t been there, especially in the postseason. Seeing as the Maple Leafs have a need for a player like him and even though he’s a left-hand shot, he can instantly provide a spark as a second pairing defender. We don’t know how well Chris Tanev is going to be when he comes back or if he can maintain being healthy as he only played 11 games due to multiple injuries, including a core muscle injury.
If Zellweger does become a Maple Leaf, pairing him up with a veteran and stable defensive presence would be the wise decision. Insert Jake McCabe as the player that can help out and can even play on the right side. While McCabe has had success with Tanev as a shutdown pair, he has also fared well with players that have speed and skill like Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Troy Stecher last season. Although his expected goals and scoring chances for at five-on-five were below league average, he had a positive goals for percentage of 55.88% and 51.52% with Ekman-Larsson and Stecher, respectively. He also had a strong high danger chances for percentage with Stecher of 55.32%.
Zellweger’s offensive skillset and mobility could provide a strong balance and McCabe’s defense can help make that up as he develops. He makes a slow blueline faster, can get pucks on net quicker and still has the ability to block shots and get into shooting lanes. Given how the league is leaning towards more skilled and mobile defenders, Zellweger has the potential to be a steady one at that.
Statistics from Natural Stat Trick and Hockey Stats.
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