They are on a run of seven games without a win in regulation and while the Toronto Maple Leafs don’t seem ready to panic just yet, the fanbase is already on the edge of their seats as this feeling seems all too familiar. The argument is that, yes, it’s only March. But for a team that was in the conversation of a division title only a week ago, to now be amongst those in the wildcard conversation, it’s safe to say it’s been a rough couple of weeks for Craig Berube‘s team.
Throughout the year, the frustration has surrounded the team’s lack of consistent offence. They weren’t seeing enough production from the blue line at one point. While another point of the season had no depth scoring for the blue and white. Now, the concern is with captain Auston Matthews and his inability to get things going in the goal scoring department – with just three goals in his last 10 games.
But, offence aside, this team’s losses aren’t coming in the offensive zone. In fact, over this seven-game run the Maple Leafs are averaging 3.14 goals per game which should be more than enough to win consistently in the NHL. Their issue, instead, is coming on the defensive side of the puck. Over that same seven-game span, they are giving up an average of 4.29 goals per game – a number that won’t lead to many wins.
With that said, where are the Maple Leafs breakdowns happening and why?
Most recently, the Maple Leafs lost an important Atlantic Division game against the Ottawa Senators giving up four goals with Anthony Stolarz looking somewhat average between the pipes. What was more telling, however, was their lack of ability to transition the game from their own end and move the play up ice.
“Their three goals were all about losing battles inside the blue line,” said Berube following the loss to the Senators, excluding the empty-net goal against. “We didn’t win enough battles there in that area. It’s urgency for me and details in the first two periods that weren’t there… it’s an attitude that we have to have from the start of the game.”
This loss came on the heels of a 10-game run in which the team averaged 9.9 giveaways within their defensive end. Overall, they’ve had 99 giveaways inside their end over that span. On the contrary, the Maple Leafs had just five takeaways in their game against the Senators and are averaging just over four takeaways over the past seven games. It goes back to what Berube said about not winning the necessary battles.
Overall, however, the Maple Leafs are 26th in the NHL in percentage of giveaways in the defensive zone which is telling in comparison to what we’ve seen over the past 10 games. It’s a different team – whether it be injuries piling up or changeover with the trade deadline – this isn’t the same team that was a shoe-in for the playoffs only three weeks ago.
For the season, the Maple Leafs are ninth in blocked shots with 1,165. At one point, Chris Tanev was leading the league in that department and while an injury set him out for a handful of games, he’s dropped all the way to fifth in the league 29 blocks back of the league-leader Jacob Trouba.
Over the past 20 games the Maple Leafs have fallen to 11th in the league in blocked shots. Part of that could be the loss of Tanev in the lineup, but that’s where other players need to step up and fill that gap. After all, whatever they were doing earlier in the year worked out for the team and their netminders.
Now, with Brandon Carlo on the team, it adds another big body that can eat pucks alongside Tanev. Carlo (128) currently sits 24th in the league in blocks, 54 back of Trouba. But the team needs to cut down on the opportunities again, as they were earlier in the season.
From a season-long standpoint, the Maple Leafs have given up the 11th most high-danger opportunities at 249. In the last 20 games, that’s increased to fourth in the league with 85 given up and in the last 10 games they’ve given up the third most behind only the Buffalo Sabres and the Columbus Blue Jackets.
It’s clear that the Maple Leafs have had a number of defensive breakdowns. And this doesn’t just fall on the shoulders of the defensemen. In fact, the way they’ve collapsed has sometimes pushed three defenders in behind the net leaving opposing players open in front of Stolarz or Joseph Woll – whoever might be playing on any given night.
Even the forwards who are supposed to be along the boards for breakouts and transitions have caved into the middle of the ice which has hurt the team overall.
On top of everything from defensive breakdowns to their inability to block shots, the Maple Leafs have had some questionable goaltending as of late. For Woll, it’s the most games he’s played in a single season, which was a question mark surrounding this tandem heading into the season. Stolarz is on the verge of being in the same boat, sitting at 26 games played and having never surpassed the 28-game mark in a season at the NHL level.
Now we’re starting to see some fatigue from both goalies which could be both from the workload and the defensive play from the team in front of them.
In his last five games, Stolarz has given up 15 goals on 121 shots with a save percentage of .876. As for Woll, his numbers haven’t been much better. He’s also given up 15 goals on 126 shots for a save percentage of .881. Given their numbers earlier in the season, this is the time of year that the Maple Leafs could a stolen game from one of their goaltenders.
What it seems, however, is that everything is crumbling at the same time for Berube and the Maple Leafs. Matthews’ injury is becoming more evident with every game that he plays. The goalies are faltering. And defensively, the team just can’t find the groove they had early on in the season.
Whatever the case, their offensive woes don’t outweigh the importance of the team’s defensive structure and goaltending during their struggles. The Maple Leafs have lost some important games during this stretch, including to the Florida Panthers that could’ve shifted the division lead and their latest loss to the Senators that leaves Ottawa just four points back of them in the divisional standings.
Matthews said it, “We got to get it through our head that all these games, especially some of the teams we’re playing, are going to be playoff-like games.”
So, if they can’t win those types of games now, it’s unlikely they will be able to do it when – and if – they do make it into the Eastern Conference playoffs.
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