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Maple Leafs vs. Panthers 2025 Round 2 Playoff Preview

Originally posted on The Hockey Writers
By Spencer Lazary | Last updated May 4, 2025 4:40 PM ET

The Toronto Maple Leafs have their second-round matchup set after eliminating the Ottawa Senators in Round 1. They will face the Florida Panthers in Round 2 for the second time in two years. Although this rivalry between these two teams isn’t as big as the Battle of Ontario, they have had some very good games over the last few seasons. The Maple Leafs will need to play more like they did at the beginning of the series against Ottawa if they want to beat the Panthers. Florida is a very good team that added some skilled players back from injury right as the playoffs began, which helped them a ton.

If Toronto’s stars can show up and Anthony Stolarz can keep playing as well as he did in Round 1, the Maple Leafs do have a real good chance at winning this series. With Game 1 of this series set for Monday, May 5 at 8:00 p.m., let’s go over who has the best chance to win the series — and my prediction for who comes out on top.

Regular Season Series Results

These Maple Leafs and Panthers are similar with their ability to play high-octane offense. However, there are many differences that could help decide the outcome of this series. In the season series, the Maple Leafs came out on the losing end. In four meetings, they went 1-3. However, that doesn’t always translate to the playoffs. At times, Toronto had a hard time scoring on the Panthers. Through the first two meetings this season, they lost 5-1 and 3-2. Now, just because the season series didn’t go their way doesn’t mean they will lose this series.

In Round 1 against the Senators, they lost the season series 4-0 and still managed to win. The biggest issue the Maple Leafs will have is shutting down Matthew Tkachuk, Brad Marchand, and Sam Bennett. As a trio, they will make things very difficult on Toronto’s top players, but if the Leafs are able to use that to draw penalties, they may be able to take advantage on the power play.

Team Comparison

It is very difficult to compare these two teams, they both have what it takes to be a Stanley Cup Champion, the advantage the the Panthers have is that they are the defending Cup Champions and have the experience on what it takes on to win it all.

Florida has guys like Tkachuk, Sam Reinhart and Alexsander Barkov, Bennett and Marchand who can all take over games, but Toronto’s top end is just as dangerous — Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander, John Tavares and Matthew Knies are all rolling right now. Where the Leafs might actually have the edge this time is on the back end. The Panthers will still try to make this series all about grit. That’s how they play — they love to get under your skin. That can work in the playoffs, but it can also lead to penalties — and that’s where the Maple Leafs can look to win games, especially with how their power play looked at points in Round 1.

The advantage the Maple Leafs have is their defence. Between their shutdown duo of Jake McCabe and Chris Tanev, the emergence of Simon Benoit and the additions of Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Brandon Carlo, they have one of the best blue lines in the NHL. If they can play like they did in Round 1 against Ottawa, they will give themselves a good chance to win the series.

Goaltending will be big too. If Stolarz keeps doing what he did for the bulk of Round 1, the Leafs have a real shot here. It’s not going to be easy — the Panthers will counter with Sergei Bobrovsky, who has been one of the best goalies in the playoffs over the last few years. It will be a true test of who’s better: Bobrovsky, the star from last year’s Cup finalist, or Stolarz, the backup.

The Panthers know how to win this time of year — but Toronto looks more prepared than they were the last time around. It should be a tight series.

Head-to-Head Stats:

Now, let’s take a look at some head-to-head stats. This is where we will look at special team percentages and ranks, as well as both teams’ top point scorers from Round 1.

Matthew Knies of the Toronto Maple Leafs celebrates scoring a goal during the third period of Game One of the First Round of the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs against the Ottawa Senators (Photo by Mark Blinch/NHLI via Getty Images)

Playoff Special Team Percentages & Ranks

Maple Leafs Stats:
Power Play Percentage: 35.3% (3rd amongst playoff teams)
Penalty Kill Percentage: 80.0% (4th amongst playoff teams)

Panthers Stats:
Power Play Percentage: 25.0% (8th amongst playoff teams)
Penalty Kill Percentage: 88.9% (2nd amongst playoff teams)

Top Five Playoff Scorers

Maple Leafs Scorers:
William Nylander: 3 G, 6 A, 9 P
Mitch Marner: 1 G, 7 A, 8 P
Auston Matthews: 2 G, 5 A, 7 P
John Tavares: 3 G, 2 A, 5 P
Matthew Knies: 3 G, 0 A, 3 P

Panthers Scorers:
Sam Reinhart: 2 G, 4 A, 6 P
Sam Bennett: 3 G, 2 A, 5 P
Matthew Tkachuk: 3 G, 2 A, 5 P
Anton Lundell: 2 G, 3 A, 5 P
Aleksander Barkov: 1 G, 4 A, 5 P

My Round 2 Series Prediction:

In my last series preview for Round 1 against the Senators, I took the Maple Leafs to win hands down. But this series in Round 2 against the Maple Leafs and Panthers is so close, it’s hard to say who will win with certainty. With that said, I’m going to pick Toronto to win the series in six games. I feel that after the first-round series, they are going to have a more “business-like” approach, meaning that if they are able to jump out to an early 2-0 or 3-0 lead, they will be more prepared to close it out.

It is safe to say that Round 2 will be more of a back-and-forth style series and will almost go the distance. It is going to be a hard-fought matchup that I think will result in the Maple Leafs taking control over the series after Game 4. If it is tied 2-2, then head coach Craig Berube will use his experience to help his team take control and win the series 4-2. Again, this series is going to be so close that it may be too hard to call. The last time these teams met in the playoffs back in 2023, the Panthers won it in five games. However, the Maple Leafs are vastly different than they were two seasons ago and will put up more of a fight to win the series.

If the Maple Leafs can get past the Panthers, they have a very high chance of continuing this run all the way to the Stanley Cup Finals. Before we get ahead of ourselves, Leafs Nation, we need to take it one game at a time — and Game 1 goes Monday at 8:00 p.m.