Maple Leafs vs. Senators 2025 Playoff Series Preview

Game 1 of this series between these two arch-rivals is on Sunday, April 20 at 7:00 p.m., which means it’s time for a playoff preview. Let’s go over who has the best chance to win the series — and my prediction for who comes out on top.

Who’s Better Offensively?

Who has the better team out of the Senators and Maple Leafs? Obviously, it will depend on which fan base you ask, but the simple answer is Toronto. As we dive deeper into what makes the Maple Leafs a better team, we should start by looking at the stats. Toronto has two players who have matched or exceeded the leading scorer on Ottawa: Mitch Marner (102 points) and William Nylander (84 points) have equal to or more points than anyone on the Senators aside from Tim Stützle, who has 79 points. Additionally, Matthews and John Tavares have 78 and 74 points respectively. The second-most points on Ottawa’s team is Drake Batherson with 65, followed by Brady Tkachuk with 55. Tkachuk and Matthew Knies actually have the same number of points. Knies is the fifth-highest-scoring player on the Maple Leafs.

Outside of that, the depth forwards in the bottom six on both teams have been solid. The Maple Leafs’ group is more skilled and brings more offensive upside, whereas the Senators’ bottom six plays a heavier game — they finish their checks and do a great job of getting under their opponents’ skin. It’ll be up to the Maple Leafs’ bottom six to raise their physical play, shut down Ottawa’s depth, and allow their top players to create off those shifts. That will be a huge key to success for Toronto to win this series — and potentially wrap it up quickly.

Who’s Better Defensively?

On paper, the combination of Brandon Carlo, Chris Tanev, Jake McCabe, Simon Benoit, Morgan Rielly, and Oliver Ekman-Larsson has been stronger than Ottawa’s blue line. The Senators’ defensive core — Jake Sanderson, Thomas Chabot, Artem Zub, Nick Jensen, Travis Hamonic, and Tyler Kleven — has been solid this season. But the Maple Leafs’ group has been among the best in the league. The one advantage the Senators do hold is offensive output from the back end. Sanderson (57 points) and Chabot (45 points) combined for 102 points, whereas the entire Maple Leafs’ six regular defensemen have combined for 133 points — which just shows how offensively dominant both Chabot and Sanderson have been this season.

But Toronto’s blue line is built for the postseason. Benoit (111 blocks), Tanev (189 blocks), McCabe (135 blocks), Rielly (130 blocks), Carlo (156 blocks), and Ekman-Larsson (83 blocks) have combined for 804 blocked shots and 558 hits this season. They play a smart, physical game — clearing the front of the net, boxing out bodies, and letting their goalies see the puck. In comparison, the Senators’ top six (Sanderson, Chabot, Jensen, Zub, Hamonic, and Kleven) have combined for 691 blocked shots and 371 hits. As the game slows down in the playoffs and becomes more physical, that heavier, defence-first group gives Toronto a clear edge.

Who’s Better Between the Pipes?

If you go by name value, most would assume Linus Ullmark gives the Senators the goaltending advantage. But when you look at this season’s performance, the Leafs have been better in net. Stolarz has quietly been one of the NHL’s best statistical goalies this season. Right now, he projects to start Game 1 for Toronto. He has a record of 21–8–3 in 34 games, a 2.14 goals-against average (GAA), and a .926 save percentage (SV%), which is the best in the league. Compared to Ullmark’s record of 25–14–3 in 44 games, with a 2.72 GAA and .910 SV%. It’s also worth noting that Toronto had success against Ullmark in last year’s playoffs when he was with Boston.

In the backup battle, it’s Joseph Woll vs. Anton Forsberg. Woll has been good enough to earn a shot at being the starter himself. Forsberg stepped up when Ullmark was out and has been solid as a No. 2 option. In 30 games, Forsberg has a record of 11–12–3 with a 2.72 GAA and a .901 SV%, compared to Woll’s 27–14–1 record, with a 2.73 GAA and .909 SV% in 42 games.

My Prediction

I’m picking the Maple Leafs to win this series in five games. This team has shown fans and the rest of the league that they’re built differently this season. With a Stanley Cup-winning head coach in Craig Berube and a more complete lineup across the board, they’re set up to take the next step. The Senators are a good young team with loads of potential, but first-time playoff teams tend to struggle early on. That’s where Toronto will capitalize. With a combination of playoff experience, depth, and strong goaltending, the Leafs are in a great spot to take this series quickly.

All in all, this should be a fast, physical, and fun series — another chapter in the Battle of Ontario. It’s been far too long since both of these teams were good at the same time. Now, with playoff bragging rights on the line for the first time since 2004, the Maple Leafs finally have a chance to slay the dragon and try to go on a long playoff run.