Marco Kasper’s Sophomore Slump: A Deeper Analysis

As of December, Marco Kasper is on pace to score 10 points. This isn’t a sophomore slump like we all thought. It’s common to see a second season dip in production. I wasn’t bothered that Kasper seemed to be going through one of his own. But without a single point in the month of November, it was time to look a little closer.

What is Typical of a Sophomore Slump?

Kasper is a gritty, physical player who can play centre or the wing. I’m going to identify the players who best suit his style of play. I will note their sophomore slumps. Then, I will compare them to Marco Kasper’s.

Marco Kasper:

Rookie Season: 77GP 19G 18A 37P

Sophomore Season: 33Gp 3G 1A 4P

Kasper has had an insane dip in production to the tune of an unreal 75% decrease.

Sam Bennett:

Rookie Season: 77GP 18G 18A 36P

Sophomore Season: 81GP 13G 13A 26P

Bennett has always been my number one comparison for Kasper. I think Bennett is a little meaner and throws a bit more power into his hits. However, I have always seen them as pretty similar players. Bennett’s sophomore slump saw his per-game totals decrease by 31.9%.

Ryan O’Rielly:

Rookie Season: 81GP 8G 18A 26P

Sophomore Season: 74GP 13G 13A 26P

This isn’t my best comparison, but I think they play a similar two-way style. Believe me, if you’ve seen my prospect reviews, I love my comparisons. What a coach will call the right way. O’Reilly actually saw his second season performance increase to his rookie season by 9.4%.

Believe it or not, I looked up multiple guys with Kasper’s archetype after this and only found increases. Anthony Cirelli, Philip Danault, Dawson Mercer, Joel Eriksson Ek, Mikael Backlund, Brayden Schenn and even Andrew Copp. So far, nearly everyone proved my original hypothesis that players of this style don’t really experience a sophomore slump. Sam Bennett is an exception. A lot of these guys saw increases within 4~10% of their rookie seasons. So what makes Kasper unique?

Comparing Kasper to the Prototype:

Obviously, I couldn’t do all my Kasper comparable. I’d be here forever. Frankly, I’m not popular enough to be putting in that much effort (sorry). I decided to take the group that best fit the Kasper mold. Then, I looked at their sophomore seasons beyond counting stats. I’m going to use this data to create a prototype and then compare Kasper to said prototype.

To create the Kasper-mold, I’m going to be using Sam Bennett, Anthony Cirelli, Joel Eriksson Ek and Andrew Copp because I think they all follow his game closest although they aren’t perfect matches.

This next part is only if you want to see how I actually got these numbers, if you just want to see the results, scroll a little further.

Sam Bennett IPP: 63.4

Anthony Cirelli IPP: 60.3

Joel Eriksson Ek IPP: 53.8

Andrew Copp IPP: 60.7

Averaging this gives us what we could expect the average player similar to Marco Kasper would factor in on, given the goals that go in when Kasper’s on the ice. In other words, how many points should Kasper have if he was in line with the prototype. The average for our prototype is 59.55.

Prototype xPoints in Kasper’s Spot: 7

Kasper’s Points: 4

So yeah, Kasper is factoring in at just over half the rate he should, but with only a three point difference, the problem might not be Kasper not contributing, it looks like his line isn’t producing.

Kasper and his Line are Killing Clock:

Looking at the lines, it isn’t really a shock Kasper has such few points, his lines are practically useless. There has been a total of 8 even strength goals scored while Kasper is on the ice and 11 total. Now, we get into cause and effect a little bit here. Is it Kasper’s fault or Kasper’s line mates fault?

Here’s the answer, it’s both. Kasper needs to redeem himself. To do so, he should at least have a tryout with a line that can actually produce points. If he was put on the Larkin line, for example (where he was last season), Kasper at his current rate would have 18 points. In contrast, the prototype would have 29. Now, that admittedly assumes power play time which Kasper isn’t getting either way. But nonetheless, fixing Kasper starts with testing his influence on the line’s scoring ability. This can be done by putting him with a line that can score.

More to Read:

• Marco Kasper Season Preview
• Florida Panthers in the Four Nations Faceoff: Preview
• The Fantasy Fit for Every Red Wings Need
• Every Red Wing on Milestone Watch this Season
• Red Wings: Comparing Sandin-Pellikka vs. Rookie Seider and Edvinsson