Matthew Schaefer 2025 NHL Draft Profile

Schaefer’s on-ice production

Beginning his journey like most at the AAA level, Matthew Schaefer dominated with his hometown Jr. Bulldogs for two years before making the jump to the OHL. The 2021–22 season saw him put up a crazy 17 goals and 52 points in 31 games, which earned him a 3-game stint with the U16, where he picked up a goal and an assist.

The following year, he aged out of U15 and joined the U16 team full-time. Schaefer continued to show just how good he was, producing 12 goals and 32 points in just 25 games for the Jr. Bulldogs once again. His offensive production plus his defensive impact had many OHL teams hungry for his talent. The Erie Otters became the lucky team to draft him first overall during the 2023 OHL draft. Schaefer joined an exclusive club of Connor McDavid and Ryan O’Reilly as first overall picks by the Otters.

Schaefer joined the Otters for his rookie season in 2023–24 as a very young 16-year-old. His transition into the OHL seemed pretty seamless and didn’t miss much of a step. His production of three goals and 17 points in 56 games wasn’t anything super special, but his overall game was where to look. Schaefer looked steady and comfortable as a 16-year-old. He wasn’t as dominant offensively, but all of the traits he had developed had scouts on notice. Skating was smooth and agile, the defensive positioning was mature, and he had all the tools to be a scare for the opponents in the offensive zone.

Alongside his OHL rookie season, Schaefer would play for his country twice that year. The first was at the U17 World Hockey Challenge, where he would captain Canada White to gold over the USA. Then was the U18 World Juniours, where Schaefer and Canada would once again claim gold over the USA. Schaefer would enter his draft year as a strong contender to go in the top 10, and he just needed that extra something to be a full candidate for the top 5.

Starting the 2024–25 season, Schaefer was looking to prove himself just that little bit more, and that’s what he did. Schaefer came out of the gates flying. His first five games saw him pick up six points, then 11 in the first nine games, and finally seven goals and 22 points in 17 games. After his electric start, Schaefer shot up the top 10 and was being considered a contender for first overall. So much so that Team Canada invited him to play at the World Juniors as a 17-year-old. Schaefer and Canada would dominate Finland in game one, winning 4–0. Canada’s very first goal would be assisted by Schaefer, and he would pick up an empty-net-goal to close off the game.

The second game wouldn’t go so kindly for Schaefer. Driving to the Latvia net, Schaefer would take a shot that would result in a rebound, and he would go flying into the right side post. He would leave the ice, and later it would be announced that he fractured his collarbone. The injury kept Schaefer sidelined for the rest of the season and ended his draft-year campaign. There is still hope for Schaefer to return for the Otters in the playoffs, but for now, we hope the injury has no long-term effect and recovers fully healthy.

Even with the injury, Schaefer has been touted almost consensually to be the number-one pick in the upcoming draft. Schaefer is entering with a tremendous story of dealing with the death of his mom to cancer, monocleusis, and now injury, but he has prevailed. His blend of talents has many fans and front offices excited for the chance of drafting him into their franchise.

Schaefer’s strengths

Offensive skills

It’s difficult to break down Schaefer’s offensive skillset into multiple sections because there is just so much to it. He has everything you want a defender to have when it comes to the offensive end of the ice. His passing and puck skills, I believe, are his best of the best traits.

Entering the zone with a steady position and strong stance, Schaefer moves around and controls the puck like no other. He moves around opponents with not only a bigger frame but also with smooth puck movements. Spotting teammates with wide-open passes or creating space for them, Schaefer seems to always generate some sort of chance. Schaefer has quick and smart passes, displaying a high level of vision and hockey IQ.

Then comes his shot. Schaefer packs in a shot that he places strategically and can let it rip. Accuracy is the best trait of his shot as it always seems to find its way past or to the goalie. Putting it all together, Schaefer cycles the offensive zone like no other. He can move around with no possibility of stopping him, and he can generate chances like no other.

Two-way play

We’ve just covered how Schaefer is great in the offensive zone, but he is also present in the defensive end. Schaefer shows strength in the defensive end through intelligent positioning and brilliant reads of the puck. He can track down opponents in the zone and push them off the puck with a strong stick-check.

Intercepting pucks is something you’ll see Schaefer do by consistently reading the pass his opponent is about to make and strategically placing himself in the lane. Schaefer shows a significant amount of compete at both ends of the ice, which can make him the threat that never stops.

Skating

If there’s one quality that places Schaefer above the rest, it’s his skating. Schaefer has every skill you want that unlocks a top-end skater. He’s fast, he’s agile, he cuts corners, and barrels down the ice. He can go from the defensive zone to the offensive zone in a flash. His transition game is almost flawless and will be something that teams will crave.

Schaefer can also go in the opposite direction just as quickly with a steady and stable backwards skate that allows him to position himself effectively. Moving around the zone gracefully, he is a real threat to catch opponents off guard with unpredictable movements. The full package of skating mixed with all his other skills makes Schaefer the must-get prospect he is.

Schaefer’s areas of improvements

Consistent strength

There isn’t much that Schaefer needs to add to his game, but one thing that could use some refining is his strength. Schaefer can show to be a physically strong player with his proper protection of the puck, but at other times, it seems like he could add some weight. He’ll allow skilled opponents to out-battle him and receive quality chances against him.

Puck battles aren’t his strong suit, and we can see him lose in the corners a decent amount of times, which could surely bite him in the future. Sometimes his stance just doesn’t seem as strong as other times, which can allow for opportunities to evolve for the opponents. Schaefer did deal with monocleusis to start the year, which could definitely play a factor into this.

Shot power

Schaefer’s shot can be dangerous, and most of the time, it is thanks to its accuracy, but sometimes, the power behind it can seem lacking. It’s not a massive flaw in his game, it’s just that if he had more consistent power to his shot, he could be even more of a goal-scoring threat.

Schaefer’s comparables

When it comes to Matthew Schaefer, there are plenty of NHL defencemen I think you can draw from. Miro Heiskanen and Rasmus Dahlin are the two that I think fit the bill best.

Just like Schaefer, Heiskanen and Dahlin bring decent size to the table as well as high-end play at both ends of the ice. They exhibit the same skating skill that allows them to be so dominant, which Schaefer replicates. Offensively, the ice gets controlled by them on the back-end through creative and top-tier passes and quick movements around the ice. In the transition, they are all studs.

Moving to the defensive end, they all stand strong and place themselves properly to shut down the opposing team. Whether it be through stick-checks, interceptions, or fantastic positioning, all of Heiskanen, Dahlin, and Schaefer find a way to be effective in similar ways.

With a top-end draft talent like Schaefer, of course, he’s going to draw comparisons to the likes of Cale Makar and Quinn Hughes. I see the similarities, but Schaefer will always play a bigger game than the two, thanks to his extra few inches. I also don’t know if Schaefer will be able to develop the same offensive dominance that the league’s two best defenders present.

Another pair of defencemen I can see Schaefer ending up like in terms of style are Josh Morrissey and Thomas Harley.

Fit with the Flames

It is incredibly unlikely that the Calgary Flames will get the honours of a top-three pick—let alone the first pick—this summer. Matthew Schaefer would be a dream for them, just like many other teams.

The Flames’ left-side depth is lacking throughout the organization. Right now, Kevin Bahl is the best natural left-side defenceman on the team. When MacKenzie Weegar plays his offside, he’s easily the best, but this season, he’s been spending more time on the right. When you look into the organization’s depth, Etienne Morin stands alone as the prospect with good potential.

Getting a guy like Schaefer would not only fix the issue, he would solve it. He would walk in and immediately be the most promising left-handed defenceman in the entire organization. A major hole in the team’s future would be filled.

The only argument against Schaefer is that the Flames already have a top-end defensive prospect in the system in Zayne Parekh and would be way more in need of a top-end centre. However, if the Flames somehow had a miracle that ended up with them picking Schaefer, there should be no complaints.

Summary

Matthew Schaefer is the best defensive prospect we’ve seen in years. He’s the whole package. He has high-end two-way play, is an offensive threat, and is a phenomenal skater. Schaefer put many fans and scouts on notice at the start of the season and looks to be the future of top-end defencemen in the NHL.

Injury scares are to be a concern, but Schaefer should fully recover and continue his dominance. Whichever team is lucky to call his name come the time in June should be very, very happy.

Risk: 1/5

Reward: 5/5

Comparables: Miro Heiskanen, Rasmus Dahlin

Projection: Elite top-pair defenceman