Mitch Marner’s contract dilemma: What’s next?

Imagine you’re 10 years old and dream of playing in the National Hockey League for your favourite team. Sounds pretty great, right? For Toronto-born Mitch Marner, those dreams became a reality.

The Toronto Maple Leafs drafted Marner 4th overall in the 2015 NHL Draft. Marner didn’t make an immediate impact, returning to the London Knights for the 2015–16 season and leading them to the Memorial Cup championship alongside Matthew Tkachuk.

As a rookie, Marner scored 61 points in 77 games, helping the Leafs make the playoffs alongside the Leafs’ other two top draft picks, Auston Matthews and William Nylander. This was a sign of things to come in Toronto.

High Expectations

In 2018, The Hockey News released a copy of their magazine called “Future Watch.” On the cover were Marner, Matthews, and Nylander, with the caption “Plan the parade.” Expectations were sky-high early on in Marner’s career.

In the years following, Marner became a superstar. He’s one of the best offensive players the Leafs have ever seen. However, his talent would be overshadowed by Matthews, who’s a generational goal scorer in his own right. Marner has been below one point per game just twice in his career, which were his first two years in the NHL.

After his entry-level contract expired, Marner signed a six-year extension with the Leafs worth $10.9M per year, due to his impressive 94-point breakout season. His new contract would be good until the end of the 2024–25 season.

What’s Next?

Now, here we are at the end of that contract. Marner wants as much as $14M per year. Which, as of now, would make him at least the second-highest-paid player in the league in terms of average annual value.

By that logic, Marner is worth more than Nathan Mackinnon and Connor McDavid, which is absurd. Marner isn’t even the best player on his current team. Mackinnon has led his team to a Cup, and McDavid came one game short.

Marner is a very skilled player. He’s one of the best offensive players Toronto has ever seen. He’s had multiple 90-plus-point seasons and broke 100 this season for the first time. So, he’s due to get paid by somebody. But time will tell which team gives him a chance.

$14M is a wild amount of money. However, in today’s NHL, I’d say you have to build two teams in one. You need to have enough skill to get through an 82-game regular season and also have enough physical and mental toughness and grit to get through a playoff run.

Marner has proven time and time again that he doesn’t perform nearly as well in the playoffs as he does in the regular season. So, if you’re a team that wants to compete for a Cup, do you spend $14M on a guy who doesn’t perform well when the lights are brightest? I don’t think so. Fans have their opinions about whether or not the Leafs should re-sign Marner. Personally, I don’t think he’ll come back. Here’s why:

1. Money

With Marner and John Tavares being unrestricted free agents and Matthew Knies being a restricted free agent, the Leafs likely can’t afford all three. If Marner has his heart set on the $14M, he’s not going to get it in Toronto. He’s not worth more than Matthews, and he’s definitely not worth more than everyone else in the league.

2. The Leafs don’t want him

During Game 7, Marner was being booed. It’s clear that the fans do not want him back. Rightfully so, the Leafs had their window for a championship, and they trusted Marner to lead them to the promised land. Year after year, he’d go quiet in the playoffs. The formula doesn’t work.

3. Being the Star

Over his career, Marner has become a superstar, which is amplified in Toronto by the media. However, sometimes it seems as if Marner is the Robin to Matthews’ Batman. Given that Marner has played in Canada as long as he has, there’s part of him that may like the attention (just not this much negative). If he wants to be the star, he’ll have to go somewhere else, because Matthews is that guy in Toronto.

Potential Landing Spots

I think a team can do something similar with Marner to what the Leafs did with Tavares. Surround him with a young core, and hopefully, he’ll be a leader and show the young kids how to act like veterans.

1. Chicago Blackhawks

This season, Connor Bedard was on a line with Ryan Donato and Ilya Mikheyev. He still scored 67 points at the age of 19. According to Sportrac, the Blackhawks have $30.3M in cap space for next season. So, in theory, they can pay Marner $14M and have some left over. Imagine the damage Bedard could do with Marner on his line.

2. Utah Mammoth

In 2018, the Leafs signed John Tavares to help develop the young players. Now, Marner can be the Tavares for the Utah Mammoth, surrounding him with young players such as Dylan Guenther, Logan Cooley, Clayton Keller, and whoever they get with the 4th overall pick this year. They could potentially make a new core four in Utah.

At the end of the day, we can speculate as much as we want, but only one man knows what will happen. Only time will tell what the next chapter in Marner’s career will look like.