Montreal dominates, Dobes vs. the Law of Numbers and Xhekaj plays (too little)

Individually dominant
It’s a well-known fact: to be successful collectively, a group must be able to rely on individuals who are successful individually. The community will always be the result or sum of the individuals who make it up.

This morning, the Canadiens have the fourth-best scorer in the circuit in Cole Caufield (seven), the second-best passer (11) and eighth-best scorer (13) in Nick Suzuki, and the 18th and 19th-best players in terms of differential in Mike Matheson and Nick Suzuki(plus-7), top rookie scorer in Ivan Demidov (nine), top rookie scorer in Oliver Kapanen (four), one of the league’s top two goalies in Jakub Dobes and 20th most punished player in Arber Xhekaj (15). Oops, that’s not positive..

And even if they’re not at the top of a major category, Lane Hutson, Noah Dobson, Juraj Slafkovsky, Zachary Bolduc, Alex Newhook and Jayden Struble are all doing very well right now.

Remember that all this success is the result of a team that is the youngest in the entire NHL. Generally speaking, the youngest team in a circuit is not ready to enjoy such success. It still needs time. Talk to the Saputo family and Montreal CF fans..

Let’s see how long it lasts. So far, the Habs have played a majority of clubs that won’t be making the post-season playoffs this year. But they’ve beaten them, and you can’t take that away from them.

Jakub Dobes is due (unfortunately)
In sports, it’s said that what goes up always comes down.

In mathematics, sooner or later, the Law of Numbers catches up with you. Talk about the golfer who plays an average of 90 and is scratch after five holes at the Mirage..

This morning, Jakub Dobes was the goalkeeper who saved the most goals among all NHL goalkeepers (goals allowed vs. goals that should have gone in).

Is it logical to think that Dobes can continue to be so dominant for another ten, twenty or even thirty games? The answer is no. The current sample size (five games) is small, and anyone with a statistical background will tell you that, in the medium to long term, Dobes will become himself again. We can therefore expect to see him make a few poor starts in the near future, in order to bring his average performance back to its true value (and Samuel Montembeault will benefit from this).

The real question is, who is the real Jakub Dobes? Is he a little better than the average NHL goalie? Much better? Below? We’ll see.

One thing’s for sure, thinking that Dobes will continue to be THE best goalkeeper in the best league in the world for a full season is currently a dream. It just won’t happen. Not this year!

Arber Xhekaj plays less and less
Usually, from one season to the next, a young player’s playing time increases. But in the case of Arber Xhekaj, the opposite is happening.

In 2023-24, the eldest of the Xhekaj brothers spent an average of 15 minutes and 56 seconds per game on the ice.

The following year, that dropped to 14 minutes and 37 seconds.

Then, since the start of the current season, Xhekaj has played just 10 minutes and 30 seconds per game. Worse still, in the last three games, he’s gone from 12:16 to 8:49… and 6:37, which is very little for a defenseman, I’m sure you’ll agree.

Xhekaj makes mistakes with the puck as well as in his defensive marking… and he’s very undisciplined. It’s no coincidence that Jayden Struble, the seventh defenseman at the start of the season, is already playing more than him night after night.

All the more reason to reopen the debate on the need to use Arber Xhekaj up front… or the likelihood of him being traded sooner rather than later.