More questions than answers remain for Oilers in potential extension for Mattias Ekholm

Stan Bowman’s main priority this month is to sign Connor McDavid to a new contract that begins in 2026-27. This isn’t new.

Oilersnation, the Oilers and every NHL market are aware McDavid has one year remaining on his current contract. I expect it will happen, but should Bowman be looking at extending other Oilers beyond McDavid?

Stuart Skinner, Mattias Ekholm, Jake Walman, Brett Kulak, Troy Stecher and Calvin Pickard are also eligible to sign an extension. How many will have a new contract before training camp begins?

Bob Stauffer suggested Ekholm, Walman and Vasily Podkozlin — who is a pending restricted free agent, not unrestricted — could be signed by the end of the month. Walman turns 30 in February, and AFP projected him to sign a five-year, $6.5m AAV extension. The term make sense, and the AAV looks reasonable, especially when you consider the salary cap will be $104m in the first year of his deal.

Podkolzin turned 24 earlier this summer. He had a solid first regular season with the Oilers, and played even better in the playoffs producing 10 points in 22 games. He’s a very good forechecker, physical, reliable defensively, can kill penalties, and Leon Draisaitl enjoyed having him on his wing. Podkolzin’s age, combined with lots of room for him to grow offensively, makes signing him now make sense. A multi-year deal with a $2.3-$2.4m AAV would be very welcoming for the Oilers. A two-year term could be enticing for Podkolzin as it gives him some security and a solid pay cheque. Even if it is $2.5m I think there is good potential for him to be a solid value contract.

Ekholm is the interesting negotiation. He has the best resume of all the pending UFAs. He’s been a top-pair defender for years. He’s fit in very well from the first day he arrived in Edmonton, both on and off the ice. He’s very reliable on the ice, and one of the most respected and genuine human beings off the ice. He and his wife bought a house in Edmonton and live here year-round, except for when they go home to visit family in Sweden.

There would be zero concern in re-signing him, but at what AAV, and does it have to happen before the season starts? The projections from AFP have him signing a two-year deal with a $6.5m AAV. Ekholm will be 36 when his new contract begins, and that is where the negotiation becomes challenging for Bowmn. Ekholm is someone the Oilers want on their team. His skillset and character are a wonderful combination, but how long will he be able to perform at a high level? He’s been a top-pair defender for years, but at times this past season he looked a bit slower. He was also dealing with a nagging injury much of the season, and missed the final month as well as the first 15 playoff games.

Part of the GM’s job is walking the tight rope of contract negotiations. Some players don’t want to play out their contracts. Some aren’t fazed by it. It varies each year and there are are always different and unique factors for each player. Age, health, previous production and the willingness to sign. It needs to work for both sides. I have no doubt Ekholm wants to remain an Oiler. He desperately wants to hoist the Cup. He’s lost three Stanley Cup Finals, two with the Oilers and one with Nashville in 2017. Motivation isn’t a concern.

If you look at Ekholm’s regular season production the past two years, his analytics are solid.

Year         SF%            xGF%
2024       59.65%       61.6%
2025       59.95%       59.40%

The difference was in his GF%. In 2024 at 5×5 he outscored opponents 88-49 (64.23GF%) while last season he was 55-52 (51.4GF%). He played 14 fewer games.

His playoff numbers were much different

2024: 59SF%, 58.7xGF% and 62.16GF% (23-14).
2025: 50.83SF%, 46.7xGF% and 53.3GF% (8-7).

He returned from injury to play the final seven games and only played 125 minutes at 5×5 compared to 438 the previous year. It is an extremely small sample size, and after his regular season it is fair to chalk up his numbers to returning from a groin injury.

I was told by a few sources his return was due to his work ethic, and the organization doing everything possible to help him. I was told he travelled to Toronto for a special rehabilitation therapy. Both sides were committed to getting him back for the playoffs.

The Oilers have an intimate understanding of how severe his injury was. They will know how much it might have impacted his play.

Even with that knowledge, could Bowman opt to wait and see Ekholm play healthy before signing him to a new deal? Time is the best asset you have and the Oilers don’t have to rush into signing him. The other challenge is predicting when age will start to be a factor in his play. Father time is undefeated. Even the greatest players eventually slow down. It’s just part of professional sports, and over the next few seasons, one of Bowman’s biggest challenges will be to remove emotion from his decisions.

I understand why teams want to keep proven veterans around. They know their personalities, their work ethics and their skill sets better than anyone, but past history has shown how many organizations get caught in the trap of signing players to contract extensions that reflect what the player DID, not what they will do moving forward.

It’s a fine line. Bill Belichick of the New England Patriots was great at moving on from veterans prior to their best-before date expired. However, many NHL franchises have struggled doing it.

Bowman held on too long to a few Chicago Blackhawks and it hurt them. Brent Seabrook was incredibly valuable and a huge part of their three Stanley Cups, but he was signed to an eight-year extension three months after winning their third Cup, with one year remaining on his existing deal. Seabrook was decent in his first year of his new deal, but then it was quick slide and he only played four years of the deal before he ended his career due to a back injury. The injury was a factor, no doubt, but he showed signs of slowing down prior.

It is extremely difficult to know when the downward trend will begin. It is different for each player, and for some it is gradual, while others crash quickly.

Ekholm could easily be good for multiple seasons, but due to his age, I wonder if Bowman uses the advantage of time. Or maybe he offers Ekholm a three-year deal at $4m, knowing that if he does see a reduction in minutes, that the AAV is more reflective.

He could easily return this season and play as well as he has since arriving in Edmonton. It wouldn’t shock me, but nothing is guaranteed in pro sports, and it is more difficult to evaluate the future of player’s who have helped an organization and ones who are well respected.

Where do you stand on Ekholm?

Sign him right away?

Wait and see how the season goes?

There is no right answer, just different options.