NHL best bets: Expert picks and predictions for Tuesday 4/16

Red Wings vs. Canadiens

Tuesday, April 16, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN+
Over 6.5 (-105, Bet365)

By Carol Schram

For three straight games, the Detroit Red Wings staged multi-goal comebacks to pick up standings points they’ve desperately needed. And in the last two, they’ve sealed the deal with overtime wins that have kept their playoff hopes alive.

On Tuesday, they won’t have full control of their destiny. But they’ll need at least one point in their final game of the year – and judging from these last two outings, they’re not going to let this opportunity slip away without a fight.

If you’re looking at player props, Detroit captain Dylan Larkin has points in seven of the last eight games while Lucas Raymond is on a five-game point streak and Alex DeBrincat has seven points in the last three games. David Perron also has a proven knack for raising his game at playoff time.

But the potential payoff for points props is generally limited, and a bet for a Red Wings win on the moneyline is approaching -200 – hardly worth a bettor’s investment.

At plus money, though, the total offers a much more appealing option.

All year long, Detroit has played high-event hockey, and this past week has been no exception. Facing a Montreal team that’s out of playoff contention and giving its kids a chance to play, expect another high-scoring affair that’s fueled by the motivated visitors, who have a chance to get back to the postseason for the first time in eight years.

Pick: Over 6.5 (-105 at bet365)

Red Wings vs. Canadiens

Tuesday, April 16, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN+
Lucas Raymond Anytime Goalscorer (+180, FanDuel)

By Greg Liodice

The Lucas Raymond hype train is real, so get on board before it’s too late.

The budding star for the Detroit Red Wings has willed his team back into the playoff race. They would need to win tonight, and for the Capitals to lose, in order to make the playoffs for the first time since 2016.

Raymond has proven this season that he can be the go-to guy for important situations. He’s riding a five-game point streak in essentially what is the biggest stretch of his career. Not to mention, you can’t ignore his late-game heroics on Monday that kept Detroit alive in the hunt.

This game is no different from the past five. While the Red Wings don’t control their destiny, there is still hope. Win, and you give yourself a shot at shocking the world.

During this stretch, Raymond has posted six goals and 10 points. So why not another goal against a Canadiens team that has been the third-worst 5-on-5 defensive team in April? It’s very plausible, considering the Canadiens let Raymond fire six shots on goal during Monday’s game.

With all that being said, Raymond is second among forwards on the team in Corsi%, and first in Expected Goals percentage this month. There is no denying that he has had a substantial impact on the Red Wings’ season, and with a lot riding on tonight, I can see him making a dent again.

Pick: Lucas Raymond Anytime Goalscorer (+180 at FanDuel)

Maple Leafs vs. Panthers

Tuesday, April 16, 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN+
Auston Matthews Anytime Goalscorer (-110, FanDuel)

By Grant White

Here we are, on the precipice of history. Not since 1992-93 has a player reached the 70-goal plateau, but Auston Matthews is poised to snap that drought in the regular season finale.

The Toronto Maple Leafs center has been on an absolute tear down the stretch. Matthews comes into the intra-divisional showdown against the Florida Panthers on an eight-game goal-scoring heater.

Over that stretch, the former Hart Trophy winner has totaled 10 goals and a scorching 27.0% shooting percentage.

Moreover, his teammates continue to set Matthews up for glory. Matthews totaled 10 shots on net last time out, bringing his three-game total up to 19.

Clearly, Matthews' pursuit of history is a priority for him and his teammates. Further, that is reflected in the betting line. Matthews enters tonight's contest as -110 in the anytime goal scorer market, but given his current pace and supporting metrics, it's worth the investment.

Pick: Auston Matthews Anytime Goalscorer (-110 at FanDuel)

Kraken vs. Jets

Tuesday, April 16, 8 p.m.  ET, ESPN+
Gabriel Vilardi Anytime Goalscorer (+220, FanDuel)

By Tony Sartori

A Western Conference tilt gets underway on Tuesday evening with the Winnipeg Jets hosting the Seattle Kraken. Goaltender Philipp Grubauer is slated to guard the cage for Seattle, and he could be a good fade candidate.

It's been a volatile season for Grubauer, but he has now allowed three or more goals in six of his past 11 outings. He is 4-5-1 over that stretch with a mere .898 SV%.

If multiple guys are to beat Grubauer, then I wouldn't be shocked if forward Gabriel Vilardi is involved. Vilardi has put together a tremendous debut campaign for Winnipeg when healthy, scoring in nearly 50% of his games while also leading the team in power-play goals despite playing half as much as everyone else.

I mention the latter because the Kraken rank in the bottom half of the league in penalty kill percentage. Not only that, but Vilardi enters this contest in good form, scoring five goals over his past five games.

Three of those goals came on the man-advantage. Finally, Vilardi scored twice in his last game against Seattle.

Pick: Gabriel Vilardi Anytime Goalscorer (+220 at FanDuel)

Flames vs. Canucks

Tuesday, April 16, 10 p.m. ET, ESPN+
Under 6.5 (-128, FanDuel)

By Nicholas Martin

Coach Rick Tocchet set out to make his Canucks a far tougher team to play against this season, and he found great success, which is why he'll likely be named the Jack Adams Award winner in June.

Down the stretch, the Canucks have leaned on elite defensive play to close in on a division title while superstar goaltender Thatcher Demko was injured. They put on a defensive clinic in Saturday's 3-1 win over Edmonton, and they now have the chance to claim the division title on home ice Tuesday.

Demko is set to make his return in tonight's game, and I expect the Canucks to lock it down and provide him the chance to build his confidence ahead of the postseason.

Over the last month of play, the Canucks have allowed only 2.80 xGA/60, which is the fifth-best mark in the league.

With few offensive pieces offering better-than-average play, the Flames offense has become a clear weakness. They have generated just 2.99 xGF/60 over the last month of action. They have generated two goals or less in seven of their last nine games versus playoff teams.

Calgary has also allowed a lot of goals against recently, but that flaw is largely due to the absence of Jacob Markstrom from the lineup. Markstrom has played to a +14.0 GSAx this season, and he was the main reason the Flames were competitive for as long as they were.

If Jacob Markstrom plays for Calgary, there's value betting the under 6.5 at -128 (FanDuel), and I would play anything better than -140.

Pick: Under 6.5 (-128 at FanDuel)