Oilers vs. Stars Game 1 odds, preview, pick for Thu. 5/23: Oettinger provides the edge

Oilers vs. Stars Odds

Thursday, May 23, 8:30 p.m. ET, TNT & truTV

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute NHL odds here.

Edmonton Oilers

The Oilers have been an offensive powerhouse throughout the season, ranking third in Corsi percentage during the regular season and maintaining strong puck possession during the playoffs. They led the league in xG% (expected goals percentage) during the regular season and continue to dominate in the playoffs, holding the top spot among all teams teams.

Considering Edmonton also held the top spot in both Expected Goals for and High Danger Chances during the regular season, the Oilers' ability to generate quality scoring opportunities is unparalleled. This prowess has carried over into the playoffs, where they are ranked second and first, respectively.

To top it all off, Edmonton’s power play has been a significant weapon, boasting the fifth-most power play goals in the regular season and topping the playoff charts. With superstars in Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Evan Bouchard and Zach Hyman — who all rank in the top 30 in points this season — it is no wonder they are one of the most dangerous offenses in the league.

Defensively, the Oilers have been solid, ranking ninth in Expected Goals Against during the regular season and second in the playoffs. However, they were fifth in High Danger Chances Against during the regular season, but that has slipped to seventh in the playoffs, indicating some vulnerability — especially against a Dallas team that possesses elite depth across all four lines.

Edmonton’s penalty kill has shown improvement, allowing the fewest shorthanded goals in the playoffs compared to their 14th-place finish in the regular season. Stuart Skinner, the Oilers' starting goaltender, had a decent regular season save percentage that ranked 36th out of 98 goalies. However, his performance hasn't been exceptionally reliable in the playoffs, ranking 10th out of 15 goalies in GAA (goals against average) with at least four starts.

Dallas Stars

The Stars have proven to be a well-rounded team. Dallas boasts an offense that shares the wealth and operates with exceptional cohesion.

Offensively, the Stars ranked fifth in Corsi percentage during the regular season and have dipped to eighth in the playoffs, reflecting their ability to control puck possession effectively even though they faced the defending champion Vegas Golden Knights and another extremely potent offense in the Avalanche — who won the Stanley Cup the year prior to the Knights — in their previous two rounds.

Dallas’ xG% is also impressive, ranking fourth in the regular season and third in the playoffs. The Stars' ability to convert opportunities is highlighted by their Expected Goals For, where they ranked ninth in the regular season and are first among playoff teams. Additionally, they have improved significantly in generating high-danger chances, moving from 15th in the regular season to second in the playoffs. Their power play has also been effective, ranking fifth among playoff teams.

Defensively, the Stars have been solid. They ranked sixth in Expected Goals Against (xGA) during the regular season and have maintained that strength in the playoffs.

Dallas has also been adept at limiting high danger chances, ranking seventh in the regular season and second in the playoffs, which is crucial in high-stakes games. That will become even more of a factor against a superstar-laden team like Edmonton, which can punish Dallas from anywhere on the ice.

The Stars' penalty kill had been reliable and gave up the sixth fewest penalty kill goals during the regular season, but has allowed the second most in the playoffs. Dallas will need to shore up its shorthanded defense as Edmonton has dominated in that aspect during the postseason. The Stars have been disciplined, however, with the fewest penalty minutes in both the regular season and the playoffs.

The key factor for Dallas is goaltender Jake Oettinger, who has been stellar and ranks second in GAA and third in goals saved above expected among playoff goalies. He had major ups and downs during the regular season, but has reverted into his Stanley Cup-caliber form in the postseason.

Oilers vs. Stars

Betting Pick & Prediction

Considering the statistical insights and current dynamics, the best bet for Thursday night's game is the Stars moneyline at -130 odds. Here’s why:

1. Defensive Solidity: Dallas has demonstrated strong defensive metrics, limiting high danger chances and minimizing penalties, which will be crucial in a tightly contested game. The Stars boasts the better defense and the energized Dallas crowd should provide a significant advantage.
2. Goaltending Advantage: Oettinger’s superior performance in the playoffs gives Dallas a significant edge over Edmonton and Skinner, who has struggled in the postseason.

The Stars' combination of offensive dominance, defensive consistency and goaltending excellence gives them the edge in Game 1.

Pick: Stars Moneyline (-130)