NHL Bet of the Night: Toronto Maple Leafs vs Arizona Coyotes

There's just three games on the NHL docket tonight but one in particular stands out as our best bet of the night.

The game is Toronto vs Arizona, with puck drop scheduled for 10 p.m. EST.

The bet: Over 6 goals (-115 on FanDuel)

When considering an over, the first thing we want to see is how many shots each team allows per game. The logic there is simple: the more shots, the more chances one finds its way past the goalie for a score.

Toronto allows the fourth-most shots per game on the road in their past ten games, at 35.4, while Arizona allows the third-most shots per game at home in their last ten (34.0).

Numbers like that make bets on Shots on Goal player props and Goal Scorers intriguing, but why stop there? If we like so many skaters to put pucks on the net, the right approach seems to be betting the over.

No team allows more goals per game than Arizona, at 3.79 per game.

Toronto is well-equipped to capitalize on that vulnerability, given they score the seventh-most goals per game, led by Auston Matthews's 23.

On the season, the Maple Leafs have been stingier with goals allowed, but they've seen an increase in scoring against them in their past five road games, allowing 3.6 goals per game in that span.

If you're curious, the Coyotes remain generous to scoring if you shorten their sample size like we did with Toronto, allowing an average of 3.8 goals per game in their last five home games.

Trends that Support the Over

When looking at Toronto's recent games, you see an onslaught of scoring on both sides. Maple Leafs games have finished with a combined total of 6 or more in 12 straight games!

More often than not, it's them bringing the offensive firepower, which aligns nicely with the struggles of Arizona this year.

The Coyotes have seen 6+ total goals in four of their last five games, with three of those games ending with 10+ goals.

That's a lot of scoring.

The total has gone over in 7 of Arizona's last 11 games and Toronto is 9-2-1 against their over in their past 12.

Count me in on the over in the late game, Yardbarker's NHL bet of the night. Enjoy the game!