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NHL bets: Following playoff motivation with a pair of prop plays
Let's talk about the state of NHL betting for a moment. Things have been a bit rough on the ice lately, as the end of the regular season brings with it varying levels of motivation. The best course of action I see is to drastically limit volume until the playoffs begin, and really tighten up which games become targets.
Moving forward, I likely need to know that a team has a motivation to win for me to back any props on their end. Luckily for tonight, we do have a few such games that fit the bill, and it's there we go with our prop bets.
We also have one team total play at the bottom of the piece, just in case.
Dylan Strome & John Carlson points (+128 DraftKings)
Penguins vs. Capitals, 7 p.m. ET
Washington quickly got on the radar this morning from a location data standpoint, averaging 4.2 goals per game on home ice over the last month and a half and hosting a Pittsburgh team allowing 3.8 goals per game on the road during that stretch.
The last two meetings this season between these two has yielded a 6-0 and 4-3 Washington win, and the Capitals are holding on to the final wild-card spot in the East. Multiple teams are breathing down their neck, including these Penguins, just three points back.
I like the Caps to come out with aggressiveness tonight off three straight losses, and these are two that I'm liking to get involved.
Strome has points in 10 straight home games, and he's piled up 22 in his last 14 in Washington. Against Pittsburgh, Strome has six points in his last four meetings.
Carlson is similarly steady on home ice, with a point in 12 of his last 14. He has six points in his last eight games against Pittsburgh.
Filip Forsberg & Gustav Nyquist points (+102 DK)
Blues vs. Predators, 8 p.m. ET
I love Nashville to get offense going tonight at home. The Preds have had a few bad games after their remarkable run since the beginning of February, and tonight against the Blues offers a nice chance to get back on track.
It sure helps that St. Louis is nipping on Nashville's heels here for a wild- card spot out West, just six points back. That, coupled with the Preds beating the Blues in three straight meetings by a combined score of 19-6, has me loving Nashville here.
Naturally, I turn to a pair of their top-line skaters to get in on the fun. Forsberg has 17 points in his last 10 games, 15 in his last nine at home, and 12 points in his past eight meetings with St. Louis.
Nyquist has a point in five straight vs. the Blues (seven total), and he has a point in eight of his past nine overall and eight of his last 10 on home ice (15 total).
Bonus play: Washington & Nashville over 2.5 goals (+126 DK)
Just in case I've got the games right and the players wrong, or you know, I'm also interested in all three of these plays winning.
Nobody digs in the corners for picks on pucks like YB's Griffin Carroll. Follow him at griffybets.substack.com for NHL data, trends and targets.
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