NHL bets: Team totals for Thursday's loaded slate

It's a massive slate in the NHL Thursday night, with 13 games on the docket. While it can be overwhelming to sift through a night like this, I typically find the process a bit streamlined.

While gathering the numbers and trends takes some work, it's easier to find spots that rise above the rest.

There are two team total spots in particular that check off all the boxes I'd want to see, so I have a one-unit bet on each.

Both are at plus-money, offering us solid value on the evening's action.

Ottawa Senators

The Senators are one of my favorite spots of the night, and one that brings together a multitude of metrics that I'm excited to see play out.

Ottawa plays Seattle, which is what first puts them on the radar. The Kraken have been letting goals in on a nightly basis, and have been particularly bad on the road lately.

In their last five on the road, Seattle is allowing 4.4 goals per game, which is the fifth-highest mark in the league.

On an expected-goals-allowed basis, these Kraken goals against are well-deserved and should continue that way for the foreseeable future.

Now, a quick look at Ottawa's recent games at home may not inspire much confidence, as they're barely scoring over two goals per game at home lately.

Positive Regression is Coming

The Senators are a terrific example of a team expected to be scoring far more often than they are, suggesting a scoring burst is on the way.

In their past 10 overall games, Ottawa's expected-goals-per-game comes in at 3.06. Compare that to their actual output (2.29) and you see a team that has had a few unlucky bounces go their way.

Power Play Advantage

I've started looking at metrics for teams on the power play and the penalty kill that aims to capture how well they've performed on the ice in each situation.

From goals, to shots on net, to the quality of their shots, there's a lot to unpack. The important thing to note here is that Ottawa's power play ranks extremely favorable amongst their peers, top five in many of the statistics I put weight into.

On the other end, Seattle's penalty kill has been awful across the board.

Should Ottawa get on the power play, I'd expect to see them net one. Josh Norris is my favorite here to capitalize with a goal.

Betting the Over

The above anecdote on power plays is just an added cherry on top of a spot I already like. It puts it over the edge for me though, and I like the value here on the Senators going over their team total.

You could load up over 2.5 goals at -170 on DraftKings in a parlay, but I prefer pushing that up a number for very solid odds.

Best Bet: Ottawa over 3.5 total goals in regulation (+140 DK)

Florida Panthers

Florida is typically a strong bet to score, particularly when at home. The sheer volume of shots they unleash on opponents on a regular basis has helped guide their goal-scoring, averaging 4.9 goals per game at home in their past 10.

They get a Philadelphia team allowing 4.6 goals per game on the road in their past five, and the high total aligns with a high expected goals against number as well.

This, like the Ottawa game above, is another example of a strong power-play unit meeting a struggling penalty kill team.

There's plenty to like here, and at the risk of repeating much of the logic above, know that this game too matches the criteria you'd want for goals.

Jonathan Huberdeau has been a steady shooting presence when playing at home, but he hasn't scored a goal in quite some time. He's one I think breaks his cold-streak Thursday, having scored twice against Philly earlier this season.

Best Bet: Florida over 4.5 goals in regulation (+125 DK)