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NHL futures: 2023 Hart Trophy betting odds and prediction

By Griffin Carroll | Last updated 10/5/22

The Hart Trophy is awarded to the most valuable player in the NHL, with Toronto Maple Leaf Auston Matthews bringing home the honors this past season.

The Edmonton Oilers forwards have laid claim to the Hart Memorial Trophy the two years prior, with Connor McDavid winning in 2021 and Leon Draisaitl winning in 2020. McDavid also won in 2017, tied with Sidney Crosby for second-most Hart Trophy wins among active players. Alex Ovechkin is first on that list, winning the Hart Trophy three times.

This award has mostly been dominated by forwards. Carey Price was the last goaltender to win the award, back in 2015, and a defensemen hasn't won the award since Chris Pronger did so back in 2000.

Hart Trophy Betting Favorites

Odds are courtesy of DraftKings.

Connor McDavid (+250)
Auston Matthews (+400)
Leon Draisaitl (+800)
Nathan MacKinnon (+1000)
Kirill Kaprizov (+1200)
Cale Makar (+1500)
Nikita Kucherov (+2000)
Igor Shesterkin (+2000)
Sidney Crosby (+3000)
Johnny Gaudreau (+3000)
Aleksander Barkov (+3000)
Kyle Connor (+3000)
Andrei Vasilevskiy (+3000)
Matthew Tkachuk (+3000)

Voters have shown no signs of voter fatigue based on the past decade-plus of results, and with Toronto and Edmonton both expected to be some of the NHL's best, there's every reason to consider a bet on McDavid, Draisaitl and Matthews. McDavid was second to Matthews in voting last season, though it wasn't particularly close. This logic also applies to Nikita Kucherov of Tampa, who won the Hart Trophy in 2019.

Nathan MacKinnon offers us some nice value here, particularly with the scoring load sure to fall more on his shoulders given the loss of Nazem Kadri. Cale Makar joins MacKinnon from the defending champion Colorado Avalanche, and if any defensemen is going to break the long drought for the Hart Trophy, your 2022 Conn Smythe Trophy winner is the best bet.

Igor Shesterkin was third in the NHL in Hart Trophy voting last season as the league's top goaltender. Shesterkin was a big reason the Rangers over-performed last year and should be considered a solid option for the Hart Trophy in 2023.

Favorite Bets

Nathan MacKinnon: +1000

During the regular season, MacKinnon finished with 32 goals and 56 assists for a total of 88 points, which was tied for 17th most in the NHL despite missing 17 games. MacKinnon's 1.35 points per game was seventh most in the league, so if the Colorado Avalanche star center can stay healthy, he has the potential to lead the league in scoring.

MacKinnon is the engine of this high-powered Avalanche offense. The Nazem Kadri loss does put the onus of production on Colorado's top line, and given the amount of shots MacKinnon puts on net, the statistics should follow.

It helps that the Avalanche are the Stanley Cup favorites, team success can go a long way in differentiating a player for this award.

Johnny Gaudreau: +3000

Johnny Gaudreau is coming off a career season that saw the forward finish tied for second in the NHL with 115 points. His 1.40 points per game was fifth-highest, and Gaudreau was a massive reason Calgary was one of the West's best teams in 2022.

Now a member of Columbus, Gaudreau is the clear face of this young Blue Jackets team. It's a top-heavy team, but Gaudreau has playmakers surrounding him that should help him keep the points coming.

Gaudreau has the potential to lead the NHL in scoring, and he also offers voters the ability to easily quantify the impact he's making on his new team. The Blue Jackets finished 2022 with 81 points, 19 behind the last Wild Card team in the Eastern Conference.

If Gaudreau helps lead Columbus to a playoff berth, he has to be considered among the favorites for the 2023 Hart Trophy. This is solid value for a star player.

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